Putin’s Uniform Is A Message To Trump: Russia Isn’t Ready For A Truce

-Analysis-

Vladimir Putin in camouflage. For the first time after more than three years of war, the Russian President appears in a video wearing military fatigues. The Russian media is reporting that the scene was filmed at a command center in the Kursk region, where Moscow’s troops are attempting to take back territory conquered by Ukraine last year.

Beyond the visual optics, it’s noteworthy that Putin does not mention in any way the truce proposal that emerged the day before from the Ukrainian-American negotiations, nor the arrival in Moscow today of the White House negotiator Steve Witkoff.

But his appearance in uniform (without insignia), alongside Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, shows Putin declaring an order to liberate all the Russian territory occupied by Ukrainian troops.

A positive or negative message?

The scene was clearly organized at the last moment, as can be seen from the strange video circulating in which Putin has an unusually high-pitched voice and the words he pronounces are out-of-sync with the movement of his lips. Whether it is a clumsy editing or a not very successful experiment with artificial intelligence, the Kremlin was obviously in a hurry to deliver this image, little more than an hour after Donald Trump had announced from the White House that he had pressure in store for Russia if it did not accept the truce.

For now, it remains unclear whether this is a positive or negative message. At first glance, a military-style Putin, personally directing operations and moving close to the front — at least according to official statements — would appear to be a bellicose signal, a demonstration of the “cards in hand” to be sent to Trump.

For Putin it is a difficult politically to accept a possible compromise

Russia’s supreme commander did not mention any truce, and promised that captured Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk will be considered “terrorists,” and not soldiers protected by the Geneva Convention. This can also be seen as an apparent “niet” to the Ukrainian proposal to include an “all for all” exchange of prisoners in the ceasefire agreement.

But at the same time, this bellicose appearance could be a show staged for the benefit of Russian public opinion, in particular for the many hawkish propagandists and military bloggers who are currently writing fiery posts against the hypothesis of a truce. They have called the deal agreed to by Kyiv and Washington this week in Saudi Arabia as a “Western trap” to give advantages to the Ukrainians. Russian critics point to the restoration of military and intelligence assistance that the U.S. provides to Kyiv, a reversal for those in Moscow hoping for a definitive pro-Russian turn by Trump.

Facing domestic public opinion

The Russian counteroffensive in Kursk is proving to be a success, it is a rare moment in which Putin can sell his subjects a victory (without specifying why the fighting has been on Russian territory for more than six months). Indeed, on Thursday Russia announced that it has taken back Sudzha, the biggest town in the Kursk region that has been overrun by Ukrainian forces since the surprise cross-border offensive in August. The announcement comes as a U.S. delegation is on its way to Russia to discuss a ceasefire proposal.

Ultimately, for Putin it is a difficult politically to accept a possible compromise with Trump, and therefore inevitably with Volodymyr Zelensky. It is true that the other parties also have to face domestic public opinion: the Ukrainians would not forgive Zelensky for a surrender with the cession of the occupied territories, and Trump cannot continue to withhold aid for long, becoming in the eyes of the world the man who helps Russia crush Ukraine.

Russian public opinion is certainly easier to control and manipulate, but the pivot of Russian politics and economy is now war, and stopping it suddenly, at the request of Washington and Kyiv, just as Russian troops are advancing, would probably arouse the discontent of many.

Putin’s dilemma

Until now, Putin had had the incredible privilege of watching and waiting. Now, it’s his turn. Publicly, he had always rejected the possibility of a truce, instead calling for a “definitive and long-term solution to the conflict,” in a paradoxical symmetry with Zelensky.

Now, all eyes are on the one who has been silent.

But Donald Trump wants a truce, he prefers to obtain something so long as it happens quickly: he needs to show a positive result to the world, to his voters and to the falling markets. A more lasting peace and the thorny question of security guarantees are not on Trump’s mind.

Zelensky accepted the American proposal for a 30-day ceasefire: after all, a negligible price to pay to regain American military and intelligence assistance. Now, all eyes are on the one who has been silent. But Putin is faced with a very difficult dilemma: if he does not accept, he will replace Zelensky as Trump’s target; if he accepts, he will have to interrupt a war that he would like to continue.

A possible solution could be the one hypothesized by anonymous Kremlin sources to Bloomberg: agree to the truce, and then drown the real peace negotiations in a rash of difficult to accept clauses, pretexts and conditions.

That may be the real plan behind the man in uniform.