-Analysis-
PARIS – After Donald Trump’s two-and-a-half-hour phone call Tuesday with Vladimir Putin, is Ukraine any closer to what we like to call a “just and lasting” peace? It would take a bold leap to be optimistic about that possibility.
One can only share the cautious stance of Volodymyr Zelensky, who, like everyone else, could only watch the event unfold from the outside. The Ukrainian President expressed hope for a quick conversation with Donald Trump to find out, as he put it, “what the Russians offered the Americans and what the Americans offered the Russians.”
Zelensky’s assessment? The Russians “are not ready to end this war.”
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Based on the information provided by Washington, it’s clear that Putin did not agree to the same terms as his Ukrainian counterpart during talks with the Americans last week in Jeddah. While Zelensky had accepted an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, Putin merely agreed to stop targeting energy infrastructure.
All other targets remain fair game — starting with Ukrainian cities.
Zelensky’s caution
In that key difference, we see that Putin is setting his own conditions and is not accepting the framework proposed by the United States.
How did Donald Trump actually conduct himself during this phone call?
The Americans have stated that talks to expand the truce and explore the possibility of peace will begin Sunday in Saudi Arabia. This makes it clear that Tuesday’s phone call didn’t yield any concrete breakthroughs — except for this very limited ceasefire.
The one question that remains impossible to answer is how Donald Trump actually conducted himself during this phone call. The U.S. president is eager for a deal, desperate to secure a diplomatic victory as economic concerns mount at home. But how far is he willing to go to meet Russia’s demands? That will determine what happens next.
No honest broker
The most sensitive issue is whether, after this negotiation process, Ukraine will still have the means to defend itself. Putin demands, though it’s unclear whether Trump has agreed, that Western countries stop supplying arms to Ukraine once the ceasefire is in place. If that happens, Ukraine would be at Putin’s mercy if he decides to resume his war under any pretext.
Similarly, we can only wonder whether Trump will be pressuring Putin to accept European soldiers on Ukrainian soil to guarantee peace. A Russian veto on that question would not bode well.
At this point, everyone is acting as if progress is being made along the road to peace. Perhaps that is the case, but no one can be certain. Especially when Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, accompanies the partial ceasefire on energy infrastructure with a lie, claiming that Russia has never targeted civilian installations.
If Donald Trump were an honest mediator, he could inspire trust. However, everything over the past two months shows that he is determined to get closer to Putin, while holding nothing but contempt for Zelensky.
And perhaps more importantly, the economic stakes of reinstalling ties with Russia matter more to him than guaranteeing a future of peace for Ukraine.
