-Analysis-
PARIS – The name of the game is how to say “no” without saying the word! In this high-stakes match — where Donald Trump sets the rules — Volodymyr Zelensky stumbled at the start, but right now is faring better than Vladimir Putin.
Two days ago, the Ukrainian president gave an unconditional “yes” to the U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. That put the ball in Russia’s court. Putin responded Thursday with so many conditions that, for now, his answer amounts to a polite refusal.
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The Russian president believes his troops have the upper hand on the battlefield and, with the backing of his Chinese, North Korean, and Iranian allies, can afford to take this gamble. Zelensky, on the other hand, was under intense pressure due to the suspension of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing — at a time when Russian forces continue to advance.
He had far fewer options.
So Putin’s de facto ‘No’ shifts the focus back to Donald Trump — and he is unpredictable.
Putin’s conditional response
He could follow through on his threats and ramp up pressure on the side resisting his imperial will — Russia. But given his temperament and his pro-Putin inner circle, he might just as easily push Ukraine to back down. For now, he has merely called Putin’s response “promising” but incomplete That’s hardly enough.
The main sticking point revolves around the Ukrainian military. Putin made it clear Thursday that he will demand that during the ceasefire Ukraine would be barred from receiving military equipment or recruiting troops.
The Ukrainians know from experience that Russia has never honored past ceasefires, including those under the Minsk Agreements a decade ago — and that Kyiv must remain prepared. On this point, they have the backing of the Europeans, who see the strength of Ukraine’s military as the primary guarantee of security.
Trump’s threat
Putin has not backed down from his maximalist demands, including Ukraine’s acceptance of the annexed districts and a ban on Kyiv joining NATO. Once again, this is unacceptable to Ukraine, even though NATO membership is not on the agenda — EU membership, however, is.
So what now? The Russian-American discussions will continue, with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow; and perhaps even talks directly between Trump and Putin.
This is where things could go off track. Donald Trump sees his easy diplomatic victory slipping away — remember, he promised the war would be over in 24 hours! — and he might be tempted to make too many concessions to Putin in order to salvage it. This could come at the expense of Ukraine.
Zelensky now appears to have recovered his position, with the help of the British and French, after the debacle at the Oval Office clash with Trump. Yet on the ground, he is losing his last positions held for months in the Russian region of Kursk. And more than that Ukraine now lives under the constant threat of being abandoned by the U.S.
