TOPIC: recep tayyip erdogan

What Five More Years Of Erdogan Mean For Turkey – And The World

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cemented his already tight grip on power in Turkey, winning an unprecedented third term as president. The West had hoped for a slightly less unpredictable leader, but they will have to make peace with an emboldened Erdogan, who may become even more autonomous.

-Analysis-

PARIS — The re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not come as a surprise, as Turkey's incumbent president’s lead in the first round was reaffirmed yesterday.

The real surprise had occurred in the first round, contradicting Turkish polls and analyses that predicted the president, in power for 20 years, would be penalized by the deep economic crisis and the devastating earthquake in February. However, that was not the case — or at least not entirely: Erdogan had to face a second round for the first time but was not threatened by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of the united opposition.

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Turkey Elections: The Risk Of Escalation Has Multiplied

Both Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his challenger, Kamel Kilicdaroglu, have cast doubt on the first round results. Heading into the second round on May 28, recalling recent examples, in the U.S. and Brazil, we may again see what happens when a populist is faced with giving up power.

-Analysis-

On the one hand, Turkey's 90% voter turnout is enough to make tired European and American democracies green with envy. Yet this desire to participate, to have a voice — the very hallmarks of citizenship — has not prevented an instant crisis in confidence following the first round of Turkish national elections.

Already Sunday evening, when the early results were announced, both sides launched accusations, and mistrust had taken hold.

It was bound to happen, with the same party and the same man, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ruling the country for two decades. He considers the state his property, and has instilled the idea that he is indispensable, the only person who can govern legitimately.

Meanwhile, his opposition has finally united around a strong candidate, Kamel Kilicdaroglu. And they too, feeling the winds of change rising, have convinced themselves that only fraud could prevent their party from winning.

In the end, after hours of suspense, tension and emotions, a second round seems to be the only option. Erdogan himself even admitted it, after trying to proclaim himself winner of the first round. The next two weeks will be fraught in the divided country, which must make a very real choice between two distinct political paths and individuals. The risk of escalation is immense.

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Geopolitics

Levent Gültekin

When Erdogan Hints At Not Accepting Defeat, He's Playing With Fire

President Erdogan and his allies have spent the final weeks of the campaign questioning the political legitimacy of their opponents' eventual victory ahead of the May 14 election. When the vote does come, the risk of setting off a veritable civil war is real.

-Analysis-

ISTANBUL — There’s a Turkish saying about how the words and sentences about a certain topic are worse than the topic itself. In other words, talking about something may be worse than it actually happening. The topic that I’m going to write about now is a little like that. And yet, the problem doesn't go away by not talking or writing about it.

Süleyman Soylu, Turkey’s Interior Minister, recently compared the upcoming May 14 elections to the coup attempt of June 15, 2016.

Can you comprehend this? The man who will be in charge of the security of the ballots is presenting the elections as a coup attempt before anyone has gone to vote.

Binali Yıldırım, another heavyweight of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), equated the elections to Turkey’s war of independence after World War I.

Yet another AKP official, Nurettin Canikli, claimed that Turkey would cease to exist as a nation if the opposition wins the elections.

Finally, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself said that a victory of his main opponent, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, would only happen with "the support of Qandil," a reference to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK which Turkey recognizes as a terrorist organization, and based in Iraq's Qandil Mountains.

All of these statements are a clear challenge to the nation’s will.

I believe the night of the upcoming elections will be one of the most critical nights in the history of modern Turkey.

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Geopolitics

Dominique Moïsi

End Game For Erdogan? Millions In Turkey — And Beyond — Can Taste It

The result of Turkey's May 14 election is still very uncertain, but President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's significant failures put his leadership under threat for the first time in 20 years.

-Analysis-

Can elections put an end to the authoritarian drift of a man and ensure a return to democracy? In a few days, on May 14, the Turkish people will be able to answer this question with a double presidential and legislative election.

Indeed, for the first time since Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power in 2003, the scenario of his defeat is conceivable, if not probable. The opposition finally united behind an experienced politician who does not shine with his charisma alone — Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the CHP, the Republican People’s Party.

And this is all the more true because everything suggests that the Kurds from the PKK (the third biggest party in Parliament today) will join the union of opposition parties, in a ballot that looks like a referendum against Erdogan.

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Geopolitics

Mehmet Y. Yılmaz

If Defeated, Will Erdogan Give Up His Palace Life?

A tale of Turkey's second president accepting defeat begs the question of whether Recep Tayyip Erdogan would accept election defeat on May 14, and return to life as a private citizen.

-Analysis-

ISTANBUL — As we eagerly wonder what awaits us the evening of election day May 14, I want to take you on a trip back exactly 73 years ago. We’re going to May 14, 1950 in the Çankaya Mansion, the former presidential residence of Turkey in the capital of Ankara.

That evening, President İsmet İnönü, the successor to modern Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, had cast his vote alongside his wife Mevhibe at the Çankaya Elementary School early in that morning.

The Mansion’s room No: 18 has already started to liven up in the afternoon. This great room with a billiards table was used by the aides and took its name from the number of the interior phone line in it: 18. But it wasn't until the evening that reports on the election results started to come in. The President was the only calm person as his aides, ministers and the presidential staff were following the results with nervous excitement.

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Society

Mehmet Yılmaz

In Turkey, Why The Public Is So Skeptical About Donating To Earthquake Relief

When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan tried to reassure his fellow citizens that they could safely donate to help earthquake victims, many were skeptical. It's a sign of a longstanding mistrust of institutions that affects the nation on the deepest level.

-Analysis-

ISTANBUL — In the immediate aftermath of last month's earthquake, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was forced to speak up to dispel the doubts of those who worried about donating to help victims. “Making cash donations through [disasters and emergencies authority] AFAD is a method that would eliminate exploitation and doubts,” he said on Feb. 10.

Haluk Levent, founder of the largest Turkish charity AHBAP, followed that up two days later with a statement that the organization has signed contracts with two independent auditory firms which will inspect each transaction they make.

It was not a coincidence that these two people, the leader of Turkey and the chair of the charity that collects the largest number of donations, made these statements following the public rush to collect material and monetary aid after the earthquakes. Unfortunately, there are always doubts in Turkey about whether charitable donations are in fact used for the reason that they were collected for.

We are very lucky that people never stop donating in spite of their doubts.

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Geopolitics

Murat Sevinç

Erdogan Doesn't Have The Power To Delay Turkey's Election

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing a tough re-election battle in May made tougher by criticism linked to the devastating earthquake. Rumors are swirling that he might delay the election, even though it's simply not in his Constitutional powers.

-Analysis-

ISTANBUL — The last thing anyone wants to do at a time of grief like the earthquake in Turkey and Syria is to discuss the constitution. Yet in this case, we are left with no choice.

We do not yet know how many people lie under the wreckage. Before the quake, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who wants to extend his rule into a third decade, was facing a tough re-election battle in elections scheduled on May 14. Opinion polls published before the earthquake suggested he could lose because of the Turkish cost of living crisis.

Unnamed Turkey officials from Erdogan's party have said there are "serious difficulties" in holding the elections. The constitution of Turkey gives no such option for delaying elections unless we are at war and the Turkish parliament votes to do so. So it can't happen even in the event of a natural disaster — at least not without altering the constitution at least.

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Ideas

Bekir Ağırdır

Election Year In Turkey: End Of An Era For Erdoğan?

Turkey heads to the polls in June in elections that decide the country's future direction. It is a referendum on President Erdoğan, but also a challenge for the divided opposition. Much is at stake in a country roiled by multiple crises and declining trust in its leaders.

-Analysis-

ISTANBUL — Both the world and Turkey are struggling with crises. Global clashes of politics, economics and cultures are reflected in every aspect of our lives. As humanity attempts to move from an industrialized to information society, a series of crises of climate change, food and energy shortages, and regional and global migration undermine our very foundations.

Turkey is facing these multiple crises with its old institutions and rules. It has not yet had the transformations of mentality in terms of education, law, secularist state and gender equality that are the requirements of the industrial age. What’s more, Turkey has to handle the uncertainty and chaos of this tangle of crises with politicians who are unable to overcome their mindsets of political polarization and identity politics.

While the pandemic and the following economic crisis have started to silence the identity politics and given a louder voice to the issues of class tension, injustice and poverty, politicians once again drag us towards identity and polarization.

The opposition parties in Turkey cannot find time to compete with the government, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who has held power since 2014, as they are busy fighting among themselves. People are trying to get rid of the heavy chains of polarization and identities, but politics is putting them back in chains.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Anna Akage

The Escalation Trap: How Putin Is Painting Himself Into A Nuclear Corner

The missile attacks this week on Ukrainian cities will not scare Kyiv into submission. It’s the latest and gravest sign that Vladimir Putin may be bound to face an even grimmer tactical choice: the nuclear option.

-Analysis-

For the third day in a row, Kyiv is being shelled, missiles are whizzing in from the Caspian Sea, kamikaze drones are crashing in from the occupied territories. Zaporizhzhya, home to Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, is under fire for the third day in a row. Kharkiv has been under constant shelling for seven months.

To say that the Russian army escalated in response to the explosions on the Crimean bridge is not quite right. Since Feb. 24, the shelling has never stopped. Indeed, British and Ukrainian sources cite intelligence that this latest new flurry of attacks on Ukrainian cities has been planned even before the attack on the bridge.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

Ukraine is bleeding but not panicking: this is not our first day of the war. Not the first house destroyed, not the first hospital bombed. And no, not the first child killed either.

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TOPIC: recep tayyip erdogan

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74 million tons

After Belgorod: Does the Russian opposition have a path to push out Putin?

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cemented his already tight grip on power in Turkey, winning an unprecedented third term as president. The West had hoped for a slightly less unpredictable leader, but they will have to make peace with an emboldened Erdogan, who may become even more autonomous.

Erdogan's nationalist agenda

A force to reckon with

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$196 million

Bakhmut confidential: Whispered fears, endgame visions

Both Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his challenger, Kamel Kilicdaroglu, have cast doubt on the first round results. Heading into the second round on May 28, recalling recent examples, in the U.S. and Brazil, we may again see what happens when a populist is faced with giving up power.

Risky business

World democracies

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Malaisant

Ukraine's counteroffensive will be no blitzkrieg — and it has already begun

President Erdogan and his allies have spent the final weeks of the campaign questioning the political legitimacy of their opponents' eventual victory ahead of the May 14 election. When the vote does come, the risk of setting off a veritable civil war is real.

​Rising tensions

Danger on the horizon

Opposition's responsibility

The result of Turkey's May 14 election is still very uncertain, but President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's significant failures put his leadership under threat for the first time in 20 years.

Illiberal democracy

A very conservative agenda

The temptation of the East

Erdogan’s failure

A tale of Turkey's second president accepting defeat begs the question of whether Recep Tayyip Erdogan would accept election defeat on May 14, and return to life as a private citizen.

Don't worry

Fleet of 100 cars

When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan tried to reassure his fellow citizens that they could safely donate to help earthquake victims, many were skeptical. It's a sign of a longstanding mistrust of institutions that affects the nation on the deepest level.

Mistrust to paranoia

A divided society full of potential enemies

A one-man, murky political system

Weight of nepotism

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing a tough re-election battle in May made tougher by criticism linked to the devastating earthquake. Rumors are swirling that he might delay the election, even though it's simply not in his Constitutional powers.

Not at war

Acts of God?

Turkey heads to the polls in June in elections that decide the country's future direction. It is a referendum on President Erdoğan, but also a challenge for the divided opposition. Much is at stake in a country roiled by multiple crises and declining trust in its leaders.

Divided nation

Trust issues

Weight of a vote

Thirst for justice

The missile attacks this week on Ukrainian cities will not scare Kyiv into submission. It’s the latest and gravest sign that Vladimir Putin may be bound to face an even grimmer tactical choice: the nuclear option.

Bitter paradox

A new Russian commander

Not a rational actor

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