When the world gets closer.

We help you see farther.

Sign up to our expressly international daily newsletter.

TOPIC: nato

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Battle For The Danube? Putin Risks Pushing Ukraine War Into NATO Territory

In recent months, Moscow has intensified its attacks on Ukrainian grain export routes that are dangerously close to NATO member Romania. Is Putin playing with fire?

-Analysis-

One day, perhaps, there will be a movie about "The Battle of the Danube," much like René Clément directed The Battle of the Rails in 1946, about the French railway workers' resistance during World War II. But for now, it's a war, in its most brutal form: a war to prevent Ukraine from exporting its grains and cereals, which part of the world needs for sustenance.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

Sign up to our free daily newsletter.

On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Vladimir Putin in Sochi, on the shores of the Black Sea, to convince him to reconsider the cereal agreement he had denounced in July. In vain. Even for Erdogan, Putin did not yield. He only offered to supply one million tons of Russian cereals, via Turkey, to six African countries allied with Moscow, such as Mali or Eritrea.

The Russian blockade thus keeps preventing Ukraine from exporting its cereals, its primary source of wealth, through the most natural route: from the port of Odessa via the Black Sea. Only four ships have managed to pass since July — a mere drop in the ocean.

Hence, the search for an alternative route remains, and this is where the war takes a worrying turn.

Watch VideoShow less

Report Of Saudi Mass Killing, Crusader Wins In Guatemala, Baghdad’s NSFW Billboard Hack

👋 NuqneH*

Welcome to Monday, where a Human Rights Watch report warns that Saudi border guards have been killing hundreds of refugees at the border with Yemen, anti-corruption crusader Bernardo Arévalo wins in Guatemala and a disgruntled employee hacks an ad board in Baghdad in a very NSFW way. Meanwhile, Charlotte Meyer in French daily Les Echos faces our unjustified phobia to put a positive spin on spiders.

[*Klingon - Star Trek fictional language]

Keep reading...Show less

Unpacking Erdogan's Charm Offensive In The Gulf (It's Complicated)

Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent tour of Gulf states is proof that the Turkish president aims to repair his country's diplomatic ties in the region, all the while looking for investment for Ankara's floundering economy. Quite the reversal of fortunes considering that not so long ago Gulf countries faced accusations of sponsoring the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey.

ISTANBUL — After traditional stops in Turkish-occupied Northern Cyprus and Azerbaijan, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently went on an official tour of Arabian Gulf countries, highlighting the importance he pays to the region. The Turkish markets were promptly boosted by news of economical collaboration and investment opportunities.

The goal of Erdogan’s rushed visits to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar is obvious: it's the economy, stupid, no matter how much government pundits try to argue that both sides are looking for multidimensional collaborations. Turkey needs foreign investments, and the sooner, the better.

The easiest doors to knock on are those of the deep-pocketed kingdoms and emirates of the Gulf. Qatar, especially, is an emirate that Turkey has been close to even at its loneliest times, but relations between the two countries have been rather problematic lately. The Gulf countries, in particular, were not so long ago presented by government-friendly media in Turkey as the sponsors of a coup attempt in 2016 against the Turkish president. However, problems date back from even before that, when the coup in Egypt unfolded.

Keep reading...Show less

Why The U.S. May Be Pushing The Controversial “Korea Scenario” For Ukraine

Ukraine was promised fast-tracked NATO membership last week. But promises often are overtaken by politics, and voices in and around the U.S. government are looking for softer ways out of the Ukraine war, including freezing the conflict like what was done between the two Koreas 70 years ago.

-Analysis-

The final communiqué of the NATO summit in Vilnius mentioned Ukraine 45 times, always with great respect and sympathy. But when it came to outlining any specific conditions for Ukraine's actual NATO membership, the statement fell short of making any definitive commitments.

When there are no concrete conditions, there are only promises, and as the famous French diplomat Talleyrand said more than a century ago: "Promises are like pie crust, made to be broken."

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

Sign up to our free daily newsletter.

It appears clear now that Ukraine's NATO accession is on hold, at least until Kyiv reaches what the U.S. refers to as a "peace agreement" with Moscow.

The recent tepid stance of the Biden administration regarding Ukraine may be influenced by factions in the U.S. who seek to resolve the conflict promptly, even if it means implementing what has been referred to as the "Korea scenario."

Keep reading...Show less
Geopolitics
Hamed Mohammadi

Why Iran Is Relying Ever More On Russia And China

Iran can expect few real economic benefits from joining the China-dominated SCO, but its leaders hope China and Russia will help the regime tighten its grip at home.

-Analysis-

After trying for years, the Islamic Republic of Iran finally joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the Asian security partnership founded in 2001 and based in Beijing. The Islamic Republic's first stab at joining this gathering was in the second half of 2008, when the populist President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad attended a summit of SCO leaders. He returned after his contested reelection in 2009.

The organization first emerged in 1996 as the Shanghai 5, consisting of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, then expanding to include Uzbekistan, India and Pakistan. Its stated goals include political, economic and security cooperation between members and promoting peace and security with other regional states. Some observers saw it as a reaction to the fall of the Soviet Union and bid to block the spread of "velvet" revolutions and NATO influence in an area that was broadly part of the communist eastern bloc.

Watch VideoShow less
Russia
Benjamin Quénelle

Why The Kremlin Is Quietly Satisfied With The NATO Summit Outcome

The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO has been postponed. Vladimir Putin will be pleased, knowing that Russia's best hope is for a long war.

-Analysis-

MOSCOW — Ahead of the recent NATO Summit in Vilnius, Moscow had warned the West that the Kremlin would be following this "anti-Russian" meeting "very closely." True to form, Russia responded with arms all week: Since Monday, its army has launched a series of nightly drone attacks on Kyiv.

The Ukrainian capital is less than 600 kilometers from Vilnius, Lithuania, a former Soviet Republic where NATO heads of state met Tuesday and Wednesday. On the military front, Russian troops claim to have broken through 1.5 kilometers deep in eastern Ukraine in recent days.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

Sign up to our free daily newsletter.

When it comes to diplomacy, 17 months after launching the "special military operation" against its neighbor, the Kremlin can take heart from the summit's conclusions.

"At first sight, this is good news for [Russia]," says Andrei Kortounov of the Russian Council, a Russian think tank on international issues. "All options remain open, even if it doesn't make [Putin's] favorite solution, Ukrainian neutrality, any more realistic."

Watch VideoShow less
Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Article 5 Or G7? Why Ukraine Is Marginally Stronger After Vilnius

After a rocky start, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had reason to be happy after this week's NATO summit. The military bloc pledged fast-tracked membership once the war is over, as well as military support from the entire G7 block for the duration of the conflict.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Angry on Tuesday, happy on Wednesday. Can the outcome of the Vilnius NATO Summit be measured by the changing mood of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky? That would be a bit reductive, but it does give an idea of the dramatic nature of major international meetings, where nothing is over until the final clap.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

Sign up to our free daily newsletter.

On his arrival in Vilnius on Tuesday, President Zelensky had some very harsh words for the NATO leaders who seemed to be closing the door on him, even speaking of a "lack of respect." In the Kremlin, this performance must have been followed with delight.

But at the end of the day, Ukraine certainly emerged from the summit stronger than ever, even though it is still not a member of NATO. This may seem paradoxical, but there are good reasons why.

Watch VideoShow less
Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

How France Is Resisting The U.S. Push To Use NATO Against China

NATO has turned its focus from Ukraine to Asia, as American officials try to prepare a united front in case Taiwan is invaded. But consensus may not be possible as another key member, France, has its own strategy.

-Analysis-

PARIS — A few years ago, when the applications of Ukraine and Georgia to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) were first being discussed, a newspaper cartoon showed the leaders of those two countries wondering: “What is the Atlantic?”

The same cartoon could be drawn again today, with the meeting in Vilnius of the 31 alliance members with the leaders of four Asia-Pacific countries: Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. There’s no need to look far to find the reason for their presence: China.

Along with Ukraine, and Volodymyr Zelensky’s anger that NATO accession will not happen now, China is firmly on the Vilnius Summit agenda. It’s clear that Washington is behind the push for the Alliance to become increasingly more involved in Asian affairs. One more sign that China remains the U.S. priority, despite the war against Russia.

Watch VideoShow less
In The News
Valeria Berghinz and Chloé Touchard,

G7 Security For Ukraine, North Korea Fires Missile, AI vs Human Workers

👋 Konta!*

Welcome to Wednesday, where Ukraine is set to receive a G7 security package at the NATO summit, North Korea fires a long-range missile ahead of a Japan-South Korea meeting and one Indian business owner is a bit overeager about the AI revolution. Meanwhile, Ukrainian news website Livy Bereg looks at the pros and cons of the “Israel Model” and its security guarantees as an alternative to Ukraine’s NATO membership.

[*Papiamento, Dutch Caribbean]

Watch VideoShow less
FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Oleksandr Demchenko

For Ukraine, Can The "Israel Model" Be A Viable Alternative To NATO?

The NATO Summit in Vilnius will confirm that Ukraine's entry to join the alliance must be delayed. U.S. President Biden has implied Ukraine could get similar security guarantees and support as Israel. There are clear pros and cons of such a security model, which did not happen overnight.

-Analysis-

KYIV — During Joe Biden's recent interview with CNN, in which he said Ukraine cannot join NATO while the war with Russia is ongoing, the U.S. president proposed a possible alternative: Biden said that before Ukraine becomes a member of the alliance, the United States might consider providing Kyiv with security guarantees based on the “Israel Model.”

The Americans understand that there is no consensus in NATO on Ukraine's accession as some countries are still afraid of the prospect of a direct confrontation with Russia. Washington also understands that Moscow will prolong the war just to deter Ukraine's accession to NATO, and even if it loses, Russia will prepare for revenge.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

Sign up to our free daily newsletter.

So, the United States is trying to create conditions under which Russia would no longer have a strategic advantage over Ukraine. And yet there's something we need to remember about the history Biden refers to: Israel paid in blood for its current security guarantees, and it took decades for Israeli-American relations to develop to their current state.

In the early days of its independence, while Israel fought several military confrontations with surrounding countries, it received no arms from the Americans. This changed only during the Kennedy administration in the early 1960s when the Israeli defense forces began receiving weapons from Washington, and obtained different security guarantees that have evolved in the decades since.

Watch VideoShow less
Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Reading Biden In Vilnius: NATO Is About To Make Ukraine Stronger Than Ever

Ahead of the Vilnius NATO summit, Joe Biden said Ukraine joining NATO while the war is on is a non-starter. But it's also a done deal once Kyiv has vanquished its Russia invaders.

-Analysis-

PARIS — NATO has 31 members, but in the end, it's Washington that decides. All suspense about Ukraine joining the transatlantic defense organization was lifted by President Joe Biden as he left the White House for this week's NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. The U.S. President told CNN that Ukraine was not ready to join the organization immediately. The die was cast.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

Sign up to our free daily newsletter.

This was to be expected, despite the over-the-top hopes expressed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his most ardent supporters on NATO's eastern flank. Giving membership to Ukraine in the middle of its war was unthinkable: it meant, in effect, that the military alliance would go to war with Russia — this is something nobody wants, as Biden reminded us in so many words.

But that's not the end of the story. President Zelensky, who is expected to be in Vilnius on Wednesday, will not be leaving the summit empty-handed.

Watch VideoShow less
FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Sevhil Musaeva

Alexander Vindman: An Urgent Warning For Ukraine About A Second Trump Presidency

Former Director for European Affairs for the U.S. National Security Council, Alexander Vindman is the Ukrainian native who got ensnared in Donald Trump's first impeachment investigation. Since the Russian invasion of his native Ukraine, he has been urging more Western support for Kyiv. The coming NATO summit is key, but so to are the 2024 U.S. elections.

KYIV — The story of Alexander Vindman could become the plot of a Hollywood movie. Born in Kyiv, he and his twin brother immigrated to the United States at the age of three and a half years, alongside their family. Later, he pursued higher education and a career in the military, serving in the Iraq War where he suffered a severe injury and was subsequently awarded the Purple Heart. He then shifted his focus to a diplomatic career, working in U.S. embassies around the world.

In 2019, as the Director for European Affairs on the National Security Council of the White House, Vindman was one the few officials allowed to participate in a conversation between the then-U.S. President Donald Trump and newly-elected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

Sign up to our free daily newsletter.

It was during this conversation that the then U.S. president asked Zelensky for a "favor," calling on him to help with an investigation into Trump’s primary electoral rival, Joe Biden, and his son Hunter Biden.

Vindman decided to testify about the attempt to pressure the Ukrainian president, and became one of the key witnesses in the impeachment case against Trump. In February 2020, the Republican-majority Senate voted against the impeachment. A few months later, Trump lost the election to Joe Biden.

Vindman's testimony in the Senate cost him his career. He has since focused on academia, recently completing a doctoral program at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Vindman has been serving as an expert and commentator on Ukraine and Russia, consistently advocating for the West to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles and aircraft.

Vindman arrived in Kyiv ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius, where he spoke with Ukrainska Pravda:

Watch VideoShow less