TOPIC: nato

Russian Nukes In Belarus: Lessons From Putin's Cheapest Blackmail Yet

Of course Russia's announcement of moving tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus should not be underestimated. But the reality is that, since the beginning of the invasion, Russia's nuclear situation has not changed. We should instead look hard at where both Minsk and Beijing have wound up.

-Analysis-

PARIS — It's yet another episode of atomic blackmail: Russian President Vladimir Putin has once again raised the threat of nuclear weapons announcing that some tactical nuclear weapons — "small" bombs intended for use on the battlefield — will be moved to Belarus.

The silos are not expected to be finished before July, Putin says — so the threat is not immediate. But this announcement is already causing a stir, as has happened every time over the past year when Moscow has raised the threat of nuclear apocalypse. Why does Putin continue to play this card?

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

First, it's important to note that Putin is not afraid of self-contradiction. The day before the Belarus announcement, he signed a declaration with Chinese leader Xi Jinping stating that "nuclear powers should not deploy nuclear weapons outside their territory." Putin could point out that Americans are doing exactly that in some NATO countries, but the contradiction still says a lot about the limits of Russian commitments.

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AUKUS: Bold Deterrent Or Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Of A Future War With China?

AUKUS, the security pact between the US, the UK, and Australia, is beginning to take shape. Its aim is to deter China, but it risks drawing the Indo-Pacific region into a military conflict.

-Analysis-

You might remember AUKUS, the security pact between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. Under the pact, the US and UK will assist Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines.

For France, its foundation 18 months ago meant the termination of the French submarine mega-contract with Australia. The process of reconciliation with these countries was gradual: first with the United States, then with Australia thanks to a change of government, and finally with the British, who were closer and therefore more difficult to forgive.

But AUKUS (the acronym for Australia-United Kingdom, United States) hadn't been mentioned much until Monday, when U.S President Joe Biden welcomed on a San Diego submarine base his British and Australian counterparts, Prime Ministers Rishi Sunak and Anthony Albanese. The aim? To give weight to this alliance between the three English-speaking powers in the face of an opponent that’s never been addressed: China, of course.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Anna Akage

A Year Of Putin Lies: How Russian War Propaganda Has Backfired From Day One

From the first fake news reports that Zelensky had fled to Putin’s latest speech Tuesday that blamed the war on the West, Russia’s attempts to manipulate opinion have wound up leaving Moscow itself as the prime victim of its own lies.

-Analysis-

One year of war can also be counted in 365 days of lies, disinformation and fake news.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

With its invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s Russia turned up the volume and rhythm on a propaganda machine that has been deployed the past decade across a range of channels to manipulate public opinion, at home and abroad.

It has continued to the present, with Putin delivering a major speech Tuesday in which he repeated many of the falsehoods that have justified a war that has not gone as planned — all the while vowing to continue to fight.

Yet, this would-be secret weapon of disinformation has repeatedly backfired, ultimately contributing in a crucial way to the Kremlin’s overall failures in the war. And as we now mark the one-year anniversary of the invasion, the story of the broken propaganda machine is coming full circle.

Let’s go back to the beginning, to the first Big Lie that Moscow told after the Feb. 24 invasion was launched. By the following morning, multiple Russian Internet publications close to the Kremlin were reporting that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had disappeared, most likely escaped to London, where he allegedly held real estate property. According to the reports, much of the top echelon of Ukrainian leadership had likewise fled Kyiv, leaving the poor, abandoned Ukrainians to scatter into basements to hide from the advancing and inevitable takeover of the invincible Russian army.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Pierre Haski

Biden v. Putin? Don't Underestimate The Weight Of "Sleepy Joe's" Kyiv Surprise

In the inevitable race for symbolic victories on the eve of the Ukraine invasion's first anniversary, Joe Biden scored a major victory with his surprise visit to Kyiv. Meanwhile, one year on, Vladimir Putin has yet to visit his own country's troops on the front line.

-Analysis-

Walking through the streets of the Ukrainian capital on a sunny day, in the company of President Volodymyr Zelensky and robust security, U.S. President Joe Biden undoubtedly wrote a page in the history of this war. The visit was unscheduled and unprecedented. His actions expressed, better than words ever could, his solidarity with Ukraine.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

Moscow was informed a few hours before Biden's departure for Ukraine, as part of what officials call "deconfliction" or risk reduction.

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Geopolitics

Johannes Jauhiainen

Smaller Allies Matter: Afghanistan Offers Hard Lessons For Ukraine's Future

Despite controversies at home, Nordic countries were heavily involved in the NATO-led war in Afghanistan. As the Ukraine war grinds on, lessons from that conflict are more relevant than ever.

-Analysis-

HELSINKI — In May 2021, the Taliban took back power in Afghanistan after 20 years of international presence, astronomical sums of development aid and casualties on all warring sides.

As Kabul fell, a chaotic evacuation prompted comparisons to the fall of Saigon — and most of the attention was on the U.S., which had led the original war to unseat the Taliban after 9/11 and remained by far the largest foreign force on the ground. Yet, the fall of Kabul was also a tumultuous and troubling experience for a number of other smaller foreign countries who had been presented for years in Afghanistan.

In an interview at the time, Antti Kaikkonen, the Finnish Minister of Defense, tried to explain what went wrong during the evacuation.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

“Originally we anticipated that the smaller countries would withdraw before the Americans. Then it became clear that getting people to the airport had become more difficult," Kaikkonen said. "So we decided last night to bring home our last soldiers who were helping with the evacuation.”

During the 20-year-long Afghan war, the foreign troop presence included many countries:Finland committed around 2,500 soldiers,Sweden 8,000,Denmark 12,000 and Norway 9,000. And in the nearly two years since the end of the war, Finland,Belgium and theNetherlands have commissioned investigations into their engagements in Afghanistan.

As the number of fragile or failed states around the world increases, it’s important to understand how to best organize international development aid and the security of such countries. Twenty years of international engagement in Afghanistan offers valuable lessons.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Petro Poroshenko

The Poroshenko Plan: 7 Ways To Truly Crush Russia's Economy

Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian businessman and politician, who served as the fifth president of Ukraine from 2014 to 2019, believes more can be done to defeat Putin, by truly crippling the Russian economy:

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have pummeled the Russian market and its richest oligarchs with sanctions after sanctions. Despite this, preliminary data from the World Bank shows Russia’s GDP only decreased by 3.5% last year.

Petro Poroshenko, Ukrainian businessman and politician, who served as the fifth president of Ukraine from 2014 to 2019, believes more can be done. Here, he reveals his seven point plan to cripple Putin and the Russian economy:

-OpEd-

KYIV — Ukraine can win a war it did not start and force Russia, the aggressor, to bear international responsibility.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

This will be our joint victory with all the democratic countries of the world.

Fierce battles continue, like those in Bakhmut, and Ukrainian heroes are dying. Civilians, too, continue to perish - from Bucha in March last year, to Dnipro in January.

Russia has begun a new offensive, preparing to avenge the failures of its military campaign which in just under a year has not achieved any (!) of the goals Russia laid out prior to the invasion.

Late last month, the Russian dictator made a number of statements regarding the Kremlin's plans.

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Geopolitics

Pierre Haski

How Blocking Sweden's NATO Bid Plays Right Into Erdogan's Election Campaign

Turkey's objections to Swedish membership of NATO may mean that Finland joins first. But as he approaches his highly contested reelection bid at home, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is ready to use the issue to his advantage.

-Analysis-

PARIS — This story has all the key elements of our age: the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, the excessive ambitions of an autocrat, the opportunism of a right-wing demagogue, Islamophobia... And at the end, a country, Sweden, whose NATO membership, which should have been only a formality, has been blocked.

Last spring, under the shock of the invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin's Russia, Sweden and Finland, two neutral countries in northern Europe, decided to apply for membership in NATO. For Sweden, this is a major turning point: the kingdom’s neutrality had lasted more than 150 years.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raised objections. It demanded that Sweden stop sheltering Kurdish opponents in its country. This has nothing to do with NATO or Ukraine, but everything to do with Erdogan's electoral agenda, as he campaigns for the Turkish presidential elections next May.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Pierre Haski

Paris-Berlin, Warsaw-Kyiv: Europe's Balance Of Power Will Never Be The Same

A new future is unfolding in real time, one that leaders in France, Germany and beyond could not have envisioned even a year ago.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Quick question: do you know which country is on its way to having the largest army in Europe? The obvious answer would be France, the Continent's only nuclear power since the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, and a military that has been tested in multiple foreign operations in recent years.

But the answer is about to change: if we put aside the nuclear factor, Europe's leading military will soon be that of Poland.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

This is one more direct consequence Russia's invasion of Ukraine: a close neighbor of the conflict zone, Poland is investing massively in its defense. Last year, it concluded a huge arms purchase contract with South Korea: heavy combat tanks (four times more than France), artillery, fighter jets, for 15 billion euros.

Warsaw also signed a contract last month to purchase two observation satellites from France for 500 million euros.

This former country of the Warsaw Pact, today a leading NATO member, intends to be ever more consequential in European affairs. The investments in defense are one way of doing that. Yet this is not the only impact of the war in Ukraine.

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Geopolitics

Pierre Haski

European Defense: How Russia's War Changed Everything And Nothing

The EU and NATO have vowed to expand cooperation, which may mean a major long-term shift in European defense strategy. Still, the French know that the reality on the ground means that European defense effectively still means NATO.

-Analysis-

PARIS — It's undoubtedly one of the great paradoxes of Vladimir Putin's war: It triggered a rapprochement between the European Union and NATO — the exact opposite of what the Russian president hoped. Yet for the EU's leading military, France, this has not exactly been the dream scenario.

Even though NATO and the EU's headquarters are only a few kilometers apart, their leaders have long kept their distance from each other.

On Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, and Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, the European Commission's and European Council's top representatives, finally met and signed a declaration that promised “a higher level” of collaboration between both institutions.

It may seem trivial, but there is nothing obvious about this newly formed alliance. For most of its existence, the European Union has mostly been keeping at bay from defense issues.

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Geopolitics

Editorial

Why Olaf Scholz Is Still Not Convincing On Ukraine

Praising the courage of the Ukrainian people, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz assured Kyiv of Germany's support for “as long as it is needed.” Not nearly enough, according to the country's opposition.

-Analysis-

According to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz Russian President Vladimir Putin has not achieved any of his goals in Ukraine. “Not a single one of Putin’s plans has worked,” Scholz said in a speech to the German Parliament earlier this month.

Stay up-to-date with the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, with our exclusive international coverage.

He said Putin had “fundamentally miscalculated” in believing that Russian troops would overrun Ukraine within a few days.

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TOPIC: nato

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Of course Russia's announcement of moving tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus should not be underestimated. But the reality is that, since the beginning of the invasion, Russia's nuclear situation has not changed. We should instead look hard at where both Minsk and Beijing have wound up.

Moscow's grip on Belarus

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What's driving Chechen fighters to the frontlines of Ukraine

AUKUS, the security pact between the US, the UK, and Australia, is beginning to take shape. Its aim is to deter China, but it risks drawing the Indo-Pacific region into a military conflict.

Cold War echos

From the first fake news reports that Zelensky had fled to Putin’s latest speech Tuesday that blamed the war on the West, Russia’s attempts to manipulate opinion have wound up leaving Moscow itself as the prime victim of its own lies.

Three audiences

Pulling strings

Lies we tell ourselves

In the inevitable race for symbolic victories on the eve of the Ukraine invasion's first anniversary, Joe Biden scored a major victory with his surprise visit to Kyiv. Meanwhile, one year on, Vladimir Putin has yet to visit his own country's troops on the front line.

Biden's bold move

A boost for American leadership

Despite controversies at home, Nordic countries were heavily involved in the NATO-led war in Afghanistan. As the Ukraine war grinds on, lessons from that conflict are more relevant than ever.

Improving relations with NATO

International legitimacy

Lack of criticism

Lessons for the future

Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian businessman and politician, who served as the fifth president of Ukraine from 2014 to 2019, believes more can be done to defeat Putin, by truly crippling the Russian economy:

Western sanctions on Russia

The energy question

The anniversary factor

Russian gas

Nuclear economics

Energy and military goals are inseparable

Turkey's objections to Swedish membership of NATO may mean that Finland joins first. But as he approaches his highly contested reelection bid at home, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is ready to use the issue to his advantage.

Exploiting a crisis

A familiar role

A new future is unfolding in real time, one that leaders in France, Germany and beyond could not have envisioned even a year ago.

The Germany question

Great political maneuvers

The EU and NATO have vowed to expand cooperation, which may mean a major long-term shift in European defense strategy. Still, the French know that the reality on the ground means that European defense effectively still means NATO.

European strategic autonomy

NATO is European defense

Praising the courage of the Ukrainian people, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz assured Kyiv of Germany's support for “as long as it is needed.” Not nearly enough, according to the country's opposition.

Telling it like it is

Neighborhood watch plans

Skepticism on EU gas price cap

Too little, too late?

Failing on the international stage

News for the international mind.

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