-Analysis-
PARIS — So the Kremlin appears to be adjusting its position on Ukraine slightly – but a closer reading shows its demands remain maximalist. On Tuesday, for the first time, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was “ready” to negotiate with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, “if necessary.”
An apparent softening, but the Kremlin was quick to point out that “the legal framework of the agreements must be discussed in the light of reality,” alluding to the Ukrainian leader’s lack of “legitimacy”, as his mandate officially expired in May 2024.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
Ukraine has invoked martial law in force since February 2022, to postpone the organization of elections, as is traditionally done by countries at war, such as the United Kingdom between 1937 and 1946.
Zelensky’s role in question
The very fact that this point has been raised calls into the question whether there is any genuine desire to negotiate with President Zelensky, since Putin does not consider him to be his country’s legitimate representative.
Moscow will certainly play the presidential election card in Ukraine.
“Moscow will certainly play the presidential election card in Ukraine,” says Michel Duclos of the Institut Montaigne, either to demand Zelensky’s replacement, which is one of its objectives, or to sign a ceasefire with him and then back out, claiming he was not legitimate.
The Kremlin also appears to be easing up: on Tuesday, Moscow recognized Ukraine’s “sovereign right” to join the European Union, but not NATO, which would pose an existential threat to Moscow.
False pretenses
“No one has the right to dictate to another country,” said the Kremlin, which is rich with irony coming from a regime that believes that Ukraine is not really a country, and that Russians and Ukrainians are, in fact, a single people occupying the same spiritual and geographical space.
The accession of a country one-fifth of which has been swallowed up by Moscow, with the risk of a new invasion at any moment, would be “no gift” to the EU, notes Duclos.
Putin’s overtures are a subterfuge to dupe Trump and public opinion in the West
Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean, of the French Institute of International Relations, believes that Putin’s various overtures are in fact a “subterfuge to dupe Trump and public opinion in the West, or in the Global South, by presenting himself as a man of peace without changing anything about his maximalist objectives,” with a view to a truce that would “in all likelihood be a mere respite before a new conflict”.
This concern is shared by a growing number of European leaders, such as Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who believes that “Russia unfortunately threatens the whole of Europe.” On Wednesday, Copenhagen announced a “massive” rearmament plan.
Unwinding NATO expansion
Vladimir Putin’s war aims have not changed one iota since the beginning of the war, even if some of them temporarily cease to be mentioned by the Kremlin, before suddenly reappearing.
The aim is to completely subjugate Ukraine: obtain Kyiv’s recognition of the annexation of five of its regions; demilitarize Ukraine, or at least reduce its armed forces to a level that would prevent it from defending itself in the future, and deprive it of Western weapons.
The objective that the Kremlin calls “denazifying” Ukraine is simply setting up a regime that responds to Moscow, while setting in stone the impossibility of Ukraine ever joining NATO. Further along those lines, Putin ultimately wants to see the reversal, if not politically, at least militarily, of the 2004 enlargement of the Atlantic Alliance, which saw the Baltic States, Bulgaria and Romania join NATO.
The Kremlin has not backtracked on its December 2021 ultimatum on this last subject, notes Kastoueva-Jean.
And Michel Duclos concurs “This objective of a retreat from NATO remains key for the Kremlin, but could be taken out of the game in the Ukraine negotiations with Washington.” In the meantime, Moscow will try to get Western sanctions lifted, in particular the freezing of its central bank reserves — a first step to serve these other long-term goals.
