Jevgeni Ossinovski, born in 1986, is the mayor of the Estonian capital, Tallinn. He grew up in a Russian-speaking family near the Russian border, pursued a career with the Estonian Social Democrats, and served as Minister of Education, Labor, and Health.
From his fourth-floor window at City Hall, Ossinovski looks out over Freedom Square, which commemorates Estonia’s long struggle for independence. The mayor picks up a small, colorful piece of metal from his desk: a fragment of a Russian missile, he says, shot down by Ukrainian soldiers.
DIE ZEIT: What went through your mind when three Russian fighter jets entered Estonian (and therefore NATO) airspace for 12 minutes last Friday?
JEVGENI OSSINOVSKI: It was not surprising. Our airspace is regularly violated by Russian aircraft. Since the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine in 2022, we have been living in a constant state of emergency.
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How does this affect people in Tallinn?
Many are worried. Older people, in particular, ask me about shelters. There is a real fear that Russia’s war could reach Estonia. That’s why we are investing not only in the military but also in civil defense. Tallinn must remain functional even in wartime. As in Kyiv, life must go on in the event of a Russian attack, including government and administration.
That sounds like very concrete preparations.
We’re building shelters, we have evacuation plans. We are conducting crisis training so that everyone knows where to go in the event of an attack, and how supplies will be distributed. Of course no one can fully prepare for war, but we want to be as ready as possible for an emergency.
The Kremlin has long threatened to attack the Baltic states. Do you think an attack is imminent?
Militarily, it would make no sense at all. An attack on Estonia would be an attack on NATO, the strongest defense alliance in the world. Nevertheless, we must be prepared for every scenario. Russia’s war in Ukraine shows that the Kremlin’s decisions cannot always be explained rationally.
Russia recently violated the airspace of Estonia, Poland, Romania, and even over the Baltic Sea without provoking any strong reaction. Does this not undermine NATO’s credibility?
No. There are joint defense plans, which are, of course, classified, but they have been significantly improved in recent years. Today we have allied troops in all the Baltic states. With the accession of Finland and Sweden, the eastern flank has become even more secure. Estonia has been preparing for an attack for a long time, at least since Russia waged war in Georgia in 2008.
Russia is trying to split NATO.
Estonia has been a member of NATO since 2004. Do you trust that the alliance would defend your country in an emergency?
Yes, absolutely. Since NATO was founded in 1949, no member state has ever been attacked, except for the terrorist assault on the United States on September 11, 2001. Everyone in the alliance knows: Article 5 applies. That is why we feel safe in Estonia, despite all the Russian provocations.
Some experts say that invoking Article 5, the mutual assistance clause, would be enough to deter Russia from attacking again.
An attack on Estonia would be a war against all of NATO. The real risk is political, not military: would the alliance unanimously declare war in such a case? Russia is deliberately trying to split NATO, through countries like Hungary or through Donald Trump.
The U.S. president has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from NATO. In August, he rolled out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Can a small country like Estonia really still count on the U.S. in the event of an attack?
U.S. soldiers are stationed in Estonia and across the Baltic states, and their presence should not be underestimated. But one thing is also clear: since Donald Trump returned to the White House, he has been sending mixed signals to NATO. This unsettles many people in Estonia. American policy under Trump seems unpredictable. At the same time, he is only a symptom of deeper changes: geopolitically, the U.S. is increasingly focused on China. This makes it all the more important for us in Europe to do everything we can to defend ourselves.
Is Europe doing enough to achieve this?
Estonia plans to spend 5.5% of its GDP on defense, far more than most NATO partners. Europe as a whole needs to move faster: build its own defense industry, increase investment, and develop its own strengths. Only then will NATO remain credible, with or without the U.S.
These fighter jets were a provocation, not the start of a war.
How should NATO respond to the violations of Estonian airspace?
These fighter jets were a provocation, not the start of a war. NATO must demonstrate strength without overreacting. That is already happening, the eastern flank is being reinforced. We must make it clear to Russia: every inch of NATO territory will be defended, in Tallinn as much as in Paris, London, or Berlin.
How is life in Estonia changing under constant threat?
You cannot live on high alert forever. In the first year after the invasion of Ukraine, Estonian society was highly mobilized. We took in more than 100,000 Ukrainian refugees, and at the same time, with the break from Russia, we faced an energy crisis, a recession, and higher taxes. It was exhausting. But people adapted.
Last year, a Russian political science professor was convicted of espionage in Estonia. How serious is the threat from Russian agents today?
Russian intelligence services have always been very active here. Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, things have become more difficult for them. There are fewer Russian diplomats, stricter border controls, and no more direct flights. But they remain active.
Around a quarter of Estonia’s population is Russian-speaking. Some still hold Russian passports, others are not full citizens. Are they now under general suspicion?
No, of course not. The vast majority of our Russian-speaking population has lived here peacefully for decades; they are part of our society. We must not cast blanket suspicion on them. At the same time, it would be naive to think Russia is not trying to influence this group in particular.
How did the Russian-speaking population in Estonia react to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine?
The war has divided them. The younger generation is better integrated, speaks Estonian, shares our democratic values, and is firmly committed to Europe. Older generations, on the other hand, are more shaped by the Soviet past, Russian television, and family ties to Russia. This creates tensions.
Most people know their lives are better here than in Russia.
Was there also open support for Putin?
In 2022, I feared there might be provocations like in Germany, where people demonstrated with Russian flags. That did not happen here. Most people know their lives are better here than in Russia. They enjoy freedom and are part of our society.
Nevertheless, mistrust remains. The Estonian parliament recently revoked the right of non-citizens to vote in local elections. Russian-speaking residents in particular are now excluded.
I believe that was a mistake. Many saw it as a message: you do not belong here. Even if less than half of them actually voted for a national minority, the right to vote is a matter of status. It is about whether they are recognized as an equal part of society. Stripping them of this right is more likely to breed alienation than foster integration.
At the same time, a school reform is underway: classes are to be taught in Estonian everywhere, and teachers without the necessary language skills have been dismissed. Does this not further isolate the Russian-speaking population?
It is a difficult but necessary reform. For decades, two separate school systems existed, one Estonian and one Russian. This prevented the communities from growing closer together.
To this day, many people in Estonia cannot speak to one another because they lack a common language. Does this not create a divided society?
I would rather say it is a society in transition. Of course, there are still parallel worlds, especially in border towns. But the younger generation is increasingly growing up bilingual. And when you ask people whether they have positive contact with the other language group, the vast majority say: Yes. That is by no means a given.
What do you mean by that?
Look at the states that gained independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union: Estonia resolved the national question relatively calmly and successfully, unlike Georgia or other Caucasus states, where wars broke out, or Bosnia, where genocide was committed.
Nevertheless, behind the withdrawal of voting rights for non-citizens lies a concern: in a crisis, whose side would Russian-speaking Estonians take?
I do not believe in searching for “internal enemies.” Estonia’s Russian-speaking residents are our fellow citizens, not Moscow’s agents. Russia is trying to exploit them for propaganda. Our task is to prove the opposite: that they are part of our society and have a future here.
