KALININGRAD — When the world celebrated the end of history’s bloodiest war on May 8, 1945, no one had yet heard of Kaliningrad. Before the war, East Prussia was part of Germany, and Königsberg, once the city of Immanuel Kant, was an important center of culture and science. The previous month, after a long siege, it had been captured by the Red Army, and a year later the region was officially established and became an integral part of the Soviet Union.
In this way, the agreements worked out by the Allies and approved during the Potsdam Conference were implemented. The name of the capital of the region was changed to Kaliningrad, in honor of Mikhail Kalinin, the long-time chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR. This figure has an especially nasty legacy in Polish history. It was Kalinin who signed the decision to murder Polish officers in an infamous massacre in Katyn.
During the times of the communist Polish People’s Republic, the city of Kaliningrad and the regional Kaliningrad Oblast were official geographical terms in Poland. It was only after Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine that Poland’s official Commission for the Standardization of Geographical Names Outside the Borders of the Republic published a May 9, 2023 resolution recommending the use of the traditional name Królewiec. Russian authorities quickly condemned that decision.
Today, the region is a Russian exclave, bordering Lithuania to the north and Poland to the south. As the westernmost part of Russia, with no land connection to the rest of the country, it has enormous strategic significance.
Over the decades, the Russians have amassed a powerful military arsenal there, although after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, some combat units from the region were sent to the front, where they suffered significant losses. Nonetheless, it remains the most militarized area in Europe, colloquially called a fortress or Russia’s unsinkable aircraft carrier, also used for surveillance and intelligence operations.
But what is its current military potential, and possible threat to its EU neighbors?
Deployed to Ukraine
Let’s start with the land forces, the main part of which is grouped in the 11th Army Corps of the Coastal Defense Forces and Land Forces with headquarters in Gusev. According to a report by the Institute of Central Europe, on the day of the beginning of the full-scale war against Ukraine it numbered a maximum of 11,000 soldiers. It includes the 18th Mechanized Division, which has two mechanized regiments located in Gusev and Sovetsk, a tank regiment, an artillery regiment in Königsberg and an independent reconnaissance battalion.
On paper, this is a significant force, but it must be remembered that this division was sent to fight in Ukraine. There’s no official data, but the available information indicates losses exceeding 50%.
“Practically all units in the Królewiec region have had military contingents selected and they are taking part in operations in Ukraine,” explains Andrzej Wilk, a top military and international security expert at the Eastern Studies Centre. “What’s left in the region is only a training base, mainly instructors and young recruits. Recruitment for the local units is still ongoing.”
Iskander effect
Due to their popular depictions in the mass media, the weapon that raises the greatest fears in Poland and the Baltic countries is the Iskander missile. The 152nd Missile Brigade in Chernyakhovsk, part of the 11th Army Corps, nominally has 12 Iskander launchers. Depending on the type of missile, they can carry warheads up to 2,500 kilometers away, so the entire area of our country is within their range. However, as Lithuanian intelligence has determined, last year Russia transferred some of the missile systems to Rostov-on-Don. So perhaps there are fewer missiles of this type in Königsberg today.
As Ukraine’s experience shows, Iskanders can wreak incredible havoc.
But what exactly are these infamous weapons capable of? As Ukraine’s experience shows, Iskanders can wreak incredible havoc. Apart from Patriots, no other defense system can handle them. Practically every day we have Ukrainian reports that show that the declared effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense against Iskanders does not exceed 4%. “This means that 96% of these missiles hit at least some targets,” explains Wilk.
How would Polish systems based on the Wisła and Narew systems cope with Iskanders? This question remains open.
Air power
The Russian Air Force, based in the Königsberg region, operates as part of the 34th Mixed Air Division. It operates primarily from two airfields, in Chernyakovovsk and Chkalovsk. Pilots have at their disposal Su-24 attack aircraft, Su-30 multi-role aircraft and Su-27 fighters. They are complemented by Mi-24 attack helicopters, Mi-8 multi-role helicopters and Ka-27 naval anti-submarine helicopters and the Ka-29 multi-role version. In total, this amounts to about 60 aircraft and 40 helicopters, although it is not certain how many of them are in a state of immediate use.
On August 18, 2022, the sending of three MiG-31K aircraft equipped with Kindzhal hypersonic missiles to Königsberg was met with great fanfare. These missiles can travel at speeds 8-10 times faster than hypersonic speeds, reaching 8-10 times the speed of sound. The Dagger was publicly presented in 2018 by Vladimir Putin himself.
The airfields and aircraft are protected by the 44th Air Defense Division, which has a total of 64 anti-aircraft and anti-missile launchers with 256 missiles.
Base for Baltic Fleet
Due to its coastal location, the navy has always been strong in the Königsberg region. The port for the Baltic Fleet stationed there is Baltiysk, where the most important combat ships are moored.
The Russians also have four large and five smaller missile corvettes (Karakurt and Buyan types) in the Königsberg region. All of them can carry “Kalibr-NK” missiles, striking targets up to 1,500 km away. This is an extremely effective weapon due to its low detectability and the mobility of the platforms from which it is launched.
However, the greatest threat from the Baltic Fleet in the Baltic Sea lurks under the water. Theoretically, it has only one submarine – the “Dmitrov,” commissioned in 1986, codenamed “Kilo” in NATO code.
Poland has a similar counterpart, nicknamed the “Eagle.” However, its Russian twin is modernized, much better armed and fully prepared to conduct independent missions. It is true that it is based in Kronstadt, near St. Petersburg, but there is nothing stopping it from quickly finding itself in Baltiysk or lurking under the Polish coast if necessary.
“Having four fleets around the entire territory — the Baltic, Northern, Black Sea and Pacific — the Russians have the ability to make quick transfers,” explains Tomasz Witkiewicz from the Maritime Operations Center. “The connections between the Black Sea, Baltic and White Sea allow for fairly free redeployment of units. And larger ships can be redeployed even before the outbreak of conflict.”
Nuclear options
In terms of conventional weapons, it seems that Poland and, more broadly, NATO countries have the threat from the region under control. The situation changes dramatically if we take nuclear weapons into account. And everything indicates that they are deployed right next to our border.
“In the early 1990s, as part of subsequent disarmament agreements between the United States and the Soviet Union, the Russians declared that they had withdrawn tactical nuclear weapons from Kaliningrad,” says Wilk. “Despite full transparency and openness to international inspections, we are unable to confirm this. And since 2008, there have been constant signals that nuclear weapons are still there. I believe that they have never withdrawn them.”
Warsaw and Berlin are within range of Russian Iskanders. That’s 100 nuclear warheads, maybe more.
This thesis seems to be confirmed by a recent report by the American company Planet Labs, which compared satellite images from 2016-2018 with current ones. The analysis shows that one of the three underground bunkers in the Königsberg region has been thoroughly modernized. As noted, it is now identical to the structure shown in photos taken at the Russian base in Osipovichi in Belarus, where nuclear weapons are stored.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also spoke about the fact that there are nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad during a February meeting with the German Chancellor Freidrich Merz. “Warsaw and Berlin are within range of Russian Iskanders. That’s 100 nuclear warheads, maybe more. For some reason they have been modernized. For some reason more have recently appeared in the Königsberg region,” the prime minister said at the time.
Having nuclear weapons near Poland’s borders is a tool for deterrence and a projection of power in the face of the Russian threat. However, presenting power in order to instill fear is one thing, and actually reaching for a nuclear solution is another.
“Nuclear weapons are in their own way a weapon of reason. Let’s look at India and Pakistan. Both countries have the power to do great harm to each other, but they have never decided to do so,” notes Wilk. “It will be similar in Europe, at least until we have to deal with a global conflict and until the United States is present militarily here.”
So, should we be afraid of Kaliningrad?
According to experts, yes, but not to the extent that we are now.
“We usually look at Russia as a sleeping bear that can be irritated. But the truth is different. NATO is the sleeping bear, and Russia is just gently nibbling on it, because that’s all it can do,” says Tomasz Witkiewicz.
The analyst explains that the Russians know they are unable to defeat NATO in a full-scale war, which is why all their activity will be directed at the “nibbling” tactics.
“It is about sabotage activities such as cutting undersea cables. It is about provocations and stoking discord, mainly in the political sphere, but also social and economic,” Witkiewicz concludes. “All this is to create a climate of threat. Because Russia is living with its own fear of war.”
