BORCEA — The F-16 fighter jets approach the military aircraft from both sides, and intercept it. The missiles hanging under the wings of the jets can be seen from the small round windows of the encircled plane. The Turkish flag is emblazoned on one tail unit, the Romanian flag on the other.
This is the view any Russian military aircraft approaching NATO airspace would have.
For the moment an unidentified aircraft passes a certain point without a transponder signal , the operations center triggers an alarm. Within 15 minutes, jets from the defense alliance are on their way to identify the object. Sometimes they encounter commercial aircraft with a technical problem — sometimes Russian military aircraft.
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The scene described at the beginning was an exercise. The intercepted aircraft — a C-27J Spartan — belongs to the Romanian Air Force, with journalists on board en route from the capital Bucharest to the small town of Borcea. This is where the Baza Aeriana 86 base is located, from which NATO monitors the airspace on its southeastern flank. It’s also now a F-16 training center, where Ukrainian pilots will soon also be trained.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, NATO has reinforced its readiness in its southern and eastern extremes. Romania and Bulgaria not only have to deal with Moscow’s air force, but also with its naval forces as countries bordering the Black Sea. The balance of power is shifting in the strategically important inland sea — but in a different way than Vladimir Putin had anticipated.
Securing air borders
Since the end of last year, Turkish fighter pilots have been supporting Enhanced Air Policing South, a mission that was introduced after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 to maintain the integrity of NATO airspace. One of the F-16 pilots involved in the exercise is from Turkey.
On his right arm, he wears a badge with the likeness of Atatürk, founder of the modern Turkish state. His name is not to be published, but the star and laurel wreath on his shoulder indicate his rank: Major. He has been stationed in Romania for ten days. During this time, “we had two real situations that we call ‘scrambles’,” he says, meaning alarm launches.
A French Rafale jet stands next to two F-16s. A tall French pilot, who introduces himself with his nickname Max, explains that the nature of a mission depends on the location.
“If it’s international territory, anyone has the right to fly there, be it an aircraft from Russia or another nationality,” he says. “We just carry out professional checks to ensure that our countries’ borders are secure.” The planes would then be escorted. “In the event of an intrusion into the airspace, we report by radio, wait for orders,” Max continues, “and defend the border”.
Shifting balance of power
Interactions with Russian aircraft usually take place in international airspace. It is less common for Kremlin planes to enter NATO territory. In December, German and Romanian jets were alerted because a Russian drone had violated Romanian airspace and crashed near the municipality of Grindu. But NATO did not consider this to be a deliberate attack. Debris keeps landing on Romanian soil. The country has the longest border with Ukraine of all NATO members.
On its eastern flank, the alliance has long focused on Poland and the Baltic states, where multinational combat units, known as battlegroups, have been stationed since 2017. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the southeastern border became the focus of Western geopolitics — and the balance of power shifted.
One of Russia’s goals was to turn Ukraine into a landlocked country.
Battlegroups were also formed in Romania and Bulgaria, as in Hungary and Slovakia. Under French leadership, the unit in Romania will even grow into a brigade in spring 2025, albeit only temporarily and for training purposes.
Who will dominate the Black Sea?
In NATO — especially in the neighboring states of Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria — the situation in the Black Sea is also being monitored very closely. Destabilization would have a direct impact on Euro-Atlantic security and global food security. If Putin had his way, Russia would dominate here.
“One of Russia’s goals was to turn Ukraine into a landlocked country,” says Alper Coskun from the U.S. think tank Carnegie. Yet Kyiv has managed to counter Russian naval activities using asymmetric methods such as underwater drones, causing the Black Sea Fleet to suffer significant losses.
The export of Ukrainian grain, which Moscow tried to prevent, has now also been successfully assured — thanks to a corridor on the coast of Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey. In January, the three countries also decided to jointly clear the waters of mines.
We want neither NATO nor America in the Black Sea
In October, the U.S. presented its Black Sea Strategy, which includes a stronger U.S. commitment and an increased NATO presence in the region. The question of implementation remains open.
Turkish question
“We want neither NATO nor America in the Black Sea,” said Ercüment Tatlioglu, the commander of the Turkish Navy, shortly afterwards. In any case, the Montreux Treaty restricts the access of military vessels from non-neighboring countries in times of war.
Coskun, who worked as a diplomat for decades, describes a kind of stalemate in which Russia’s supremacy at sea is eroding, but the West — above all the U.S. — cannot establish a presence apart from the three NATO neighbors, of which Turkey has the strongest military resources.
Its position as the dominant naval power in the Black Sea will be strengthened the longer the current trend continues, says Coskun. But the extent to which Washington and Brussels see this as a strategic advantage depends on how trust develops with Turkey, the most complicated partner.
