How Trump’s Revival Of The Monroe Doctrine Looks From Latin America

-Analysis-

BUENOS AIRES — James Monroe, president of the United States from 1817 to 1825, conceived of the strategic and foreign policy doctrine bearing his name that essentially seeks to exclude foreign powers from the Americas. In Monroe’s day, that meant the imperial powers of Europe, such as Great Britain, France and Spain.

The doctrine can expect reinvigoration with the incoming Republican President Donald Trump, judging by some of his recent declarations, especially on the Panama Canal. In 2018, he reminded the United Nations General Assembly that “it has been the formal policy of our country since President Monroe that we reject the interference of foreign nations in this hemisphere and in our affairs.”

The doctrine became a pillar of the U.S. National Security Doctrine, especially during the Cold War, providing a basis for both direct and indirect interventions in the region to ensure governments friendly to the United States were in power.

The adversary in the Cold War was the Soviet Union, for 70 years the global flag bearer of communism, a system liberal democracies and especially the United States abhorred. Today, the chief rival is China, another communist power though with an evolved, “capitalistic” economy, and the dispute is particularly over trade and technology in the context of the U.S. economy’s conditions.

Greenland to Mexico, and beyond?

The United States had a trade deficit of almost 0 billion dollars in 2024, with China as the chief exporter into the United States, followed by the United States’ NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico. The country had a fiscal (spending) deficit of just over .8 trillion in 2024 or 6.4% of its GDP, with 10% of its annual budget spent on defense.

Given the figures and Trump’s declarations on Canada, Greenland, Mexico and Panama, clearly the new president would rebalance a few things, notably the books.

Trump would like European allies to increase defense spending to 5% of their national budgets, which, alongside a hoped-for end to wars in Ukraine and Gaza, should allow the United States to cut defense spending.

Argentina should boost collaboration

In terms of geopolitics and so-called “connectography” (which studies links between infrastructures and supply chains), Greenland and Canada assure his country’s access to and control of the Atlantic, North Pacific and Arctic seas, giving them strategic and defensive value. NATO, we may recall, published in June 2024 a list of 12 essential raw materials needed in the manufacture of advanced defense systems, which require consolidated and safer supply chains essential to the security and defense of the alliance.

Regarding Mexico, several Republican legislators, Trump’s last defense secretary, Mark Esper, and even the failed Republican candidate Nikki Haley have touted the idea of sending forces there to fight cartel crime, so, like the threat of slapping tariffs on its exports, this is not particular to Trump and mirrors concerns there over security and Mexico’s commercial ties with China.

The Panama Canal is a good example of the connectography idea, as an infrastructure that precisely assures supply chains through the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. In 2023, Trump said the United States had built the canal and should never have ceded control to Panama, which he insists is allowing China to get a grip on the canal. He repeated his complaints late last year and in January.

Geopolitical tensions

IranIran‘s suspected and perhaps growing presence and ties to states like Venezuela and Cuba could be another source of conflict. The next secretary of state, Marco Rubio, is onto it while Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba recently vowed to prepare to jointly defend themselves against any possible strikes against them.

Our region must remain united.

The Falkland Islands currently provide NATO with infrastructures needed in the defense of supply chains, especially if the Panama Canal were to be dysfunctional, while the United States has been pressuring Southern Cone states to curb investments and their trading ties with China.

The next president’s comments, declarations and even omissions are, typically, part of an unfolding strategy expected to impact the international scene to greater or lesser degrees. What our region must do in an increasingly competitive and possibly tense geopolitical setting, is to remain united and boost collaborations even in areas of defense. The aim is to safeguard our national interests and all our rights to take sovereign decisions.