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TOPIC: biden

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

Here's Why Western Support For Ukraine Is Not About To End

It's undeniable that questions are being raised in the West about the cost of supporting Ukraine in its defense against Russia's invasion. But no time soon will Western powers turn their backs on Kyiv. And the U.S. in particular has one big extra reason to work against a Russian victory: China.

-Analysis-

PARIS — There's been a buzz around the idea for some time now, linked to the lack of decisive progress in the war in Ukraine: Western allies are said to be questioning their military and financial support for Kyiv.

Two things are unquestionable: first, the Ukrainian offensive, which began some two months ago, has led to some territorial advances; but it's also true that it has not reversed the balance of power as Kyiv's generals had hoped, because the Russian defensive system is formidable.

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The other undeniable fact is that it's all very expensive: tens of billions of euros and dollars in military and economic aid over a year and a half of war. Earlier this week, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke of "a significant financial, diplomatic and capability investment for years to come."

Could this reality undermine the solidity of Western support? On Tuesday, conservative French daily Le Figaro ran a headline about the "first doubts" in the U.S. about aid to Ukraine. Europe, as well, is hearing voices along the same lines.

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Cash-Strapped Iran Ramps Up A Favorite Old Business: Taking Hostages For Ransom

Is the Biden administration following President Obama's counterproductive recipe of handing Tehran large sums of cash hoping for good conduct and a tepid détente?

-Analysis-

With the mediation of states like Switzerland, Qatar and Oman, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden have provisionally agreed on the liberation of five U.S.-Iranian dual nationals held in Iran in exchange for the release of $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds.

Three of the detainees, Siamak Namazi, Morad Tahbaz and Emad Sharqi, have already served about half of their prison sentences for spying. The other two detainees have not been named, with both sides refusing to divulge their identities.

The unwritten deal has yet to be finalized. Provisionally, the prisoners have been taken from the Evin prison in Tehran to a hotel, where they are staying under guard. A U.S. State Department spokesman, Vedant Patel, said he hoped the deal would come through as part of wider, diplomatic moves to defuse tensions between the United States and Islamic Iran.

The two sides are believed to be talking through some bigger issues like an end to rocket attacks on U.S. forces in the region, and Iran keeping uranium enrichment to below 60%, or steering clear of a nuclear bomb. It is part of a grand — if under-the-table — bargain which President Biden hopes to reach with the Iranian ayatollahs, preferably before the next U.S. election.

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Prigozhin Presumed Dead, Six More BRICS, Brain-To-Speech Breakthrough

👋 Aloha!*

Welcome to Thursday, where Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is believed to have died in a plane crash north of Moscow, six new countries (including Iran) are invited to join the BRICS bloc, and a brain-to-speech breakthrough allows a paralyzed woman to speak for the first time in 18 years. Meanwhile, Worldcrunch’s very own Emma Albright reflects on the impacts of global warming that go beyond the natural disasters, including the added burden of working through the rising heat of summer.

[*Hawaiian]

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Niger Coup, Shoigu Meets Kim Jong-un, RIP Sinéad

👋 Agoo!*

Welcome to Thursday, where soldiers in Niger have declared a coup on national TV, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un meets with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu in Pyongyang, and Ireland mourns the death of Sinéad O’Connor. Meanwhile, we look at another battleground of the Ukraine war: language.

[*Twi, Ghana]

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Geopolitics
Bahadır Kaynak

Why Erdogan Is Watching Modi's Seduction Of The West So Closely

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was received warmly in the U.S. and in France — visits which must have provoked some jealousy in Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who faces many of the same anti-democratic criticisms as Modi, can't expect the same kind of red-carpet welcome in Washington.

-Analysis-

ISTANBUL — It has been a pretty good month for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which included greenlighting Sweden's NATO membership and holding a one-on-one meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden.

Based on these news, and not long after Turkey's recent presidential election, it looks like Erdogan is taking steps to straighten out his relations with the West. Finally, a chance to leave the tension-filled recent years behind, despite numerous ongoing issues.

However, some on the other side of the world are waltzing through the doors Erdogan can barely crack open. While Ankara deals with weapon embargoes, alongside political and economic pressures, some leaders with similar policies are welcomed on the red carpet.

I’m talking about the kind reception Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi received recently,first in the U.S. and then in France. Modi’s visit to the U.S., about a month ago, was shadowed by the Wagner mercenary uprising in Russia, but it was a development that was worth talking about.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Yuri Fedorov

Why The U.S. May Be Pushing The Controversial “Korea Scenario” For Ukraine

Ukraine was promised fast-tracked NATO membership last week. But promises often are overtaken by politics, and voices in and around the U.S. government are looking for softer ways out of the Ukraine war, including freezing the conflict like what was done between the two Koreas 70 years ago.

-Analysis-

The final communiqué of the NATO summit in Vilnius mentioned Ukraine 45 times, always with great respect and sympathy. But when it came to outlining any specific conditions for Ukraine's actual NATO membership, the statement fell short of making any definitive commitments.

When there are no concrete conditions, there are only promises, and as the famous French diplomat Talleyrand said more than a century ago: "Promises are like pie crust, made to be broken."

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It appears clear now that Ukraine's NATO accession is on hold, at least until Kyiv reaches what the U.S. refers to as a "peace agreement" with Moscow.

The recent tepid stance of the Biden administration regarding Ukraine may be influenced by factions in the U.S. who seek to resolve the conflict promptly, even if it means implementing what has been referred to as the "Korea scenario."

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Reading Biden In Vilnius: NATO Is About To Make Ukraine Stronger Than Ever

Ahead of the Vilnius NATO summit, Joe Biden said Ukraine joining NATO while the war is on is a non-starter. But it's also a done deal once Kyiv has vanquished its Russia invaders.

-Analysis-

PARIS — NATO has 31 members, but in the end, it's Washington that decides. All suspense about Ukraine joining the transatlantic defense organization was lifted by President Joe Biden as he left the White House for this week's NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. The U.S. President told CNN that Ukraine was not ready to join the organization immediately. The die was cast.

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This was to be expected, despite the over-the-top hopes expressed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his most ardent supporters on NATO's eastern flank. Giving membership to Ukraine in the middle of its war was unthinkable: it meant, in effect, that the military alliance would go to war with Russia — this is something nobody wants, as Biden reminded us in so many words.

But that's not the end of the story. President Zelensky, who is expected to be in Vilnius on Wednesday, will not be leaving the summit empty-handed.

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In The News
Yannick Champion-Osselin, Marine Béguin, Valeria Berghinz and Anne-Sophie Goninet

Prigozhin Met Putin, Biden In UK, Floods Everywhere

👋 Pialli!*

Welcome to Monday, where the Kremlin confirms Wagner leader Prigozhin met with Putin after the failed mutiny, Joe Biden is in the UK ahead of the NATO Summit in Vilnius and major flooding has been reported from New Delhi to New York, Spain to Japan to Russia. Meanwhile, in Argentine daily Clarín, Jasmine Bazan asks if memes are subjected to copyright laws.

[*Nahuatl, Mexico]

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eyes on the U.S.
José Luis Moreira

No More Than Migrants? On Biden's Cynical View Of Central America

Fixated on migration as a big issue of the 2024 presidential elections, the Biden administration is ignoring the state's piecemeal assault on democracy in Guatemala, a country already struggling with endemic violence, in return for curbs on U.S.-bound migration.

-OpEd-

BUENOS AIRES – Toward the end of the last century, Guatemala, a small, Central American republic with a wealth of culture and natural beauty, faced a promising horizon. After decades of internal fighting and human rights abuses, under the wider ideological framework of the Cold War, we entered the new millennium with some basic, institutional pledges starkly absent in preceding decades. In principle, these would favor economic growth, reduce socio-economic divisions and help consolidate democracy.

Today, the country is a victim of the failure to honor those pledges.

Between 2000 and 2022, Guatemala's per capita income grew by 1%, compared with 2% for Costa Rica in the same years. Likewise, low job-creation rates have pushed millions to seek a better life abroad, mostly in the U.S., and embark on an illegal and dangerous path that often leads to death. The remittances sent back by Guatemalan migrants have come to make up 19% of the national economy.

Nor has an end to the civil war helped establish a democratic republic with modern governance and a stronger civil society. Recently, the founder of the national daily El Periódico, José Rubén Zamora Marroquín, was convicted in a faulty legal process that seemed to be a case of political retribution. This was in fact clumsily alluded to by the chief prosecutor in the case, Rafael Curruchiche.

In 2021, he became the target of U.S. sanctions for obstructing anti-corruption investigations, for "disrupting high-profile corruption cases against government officials" and making "spurious" claims against legal investigators.

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Geopolitics
Reza Khoshhal

Why Reviving The Iranian Nuclear Deal May Really Be Aimed At Russia — By Both Sides

The Biden administration's bid to revive a nuclear agreement with Iran is seen by some as a "weak" approach to exercising power in the Middle East. However, it may be an attempt to restrict Russia's strategic influence inside Iran, which may serve both the West and Tehran.

-Analysis-

LONDON — Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has recently made public comments suggesting qualified backing for a revived nuclear deal with the West. It's a significant shift in Tehran's stance, but requires a closer look.

The bitter reality of Iran's nuclear program is that it has become a bargaining chip in Russia's hand. For years now, the Russians have deftly exploited every crisis involving the program, openly and secretly, and most notably in the talks leading to the 2015 pact with the 5+1 Powers. Iranian officials are fully aware of Russia's self-serving involvement in this strategic sector, which is in a state of technical dependence on Russia.

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Like a bossy doorman, it controls all supplies and circulation in and out of the Iranian program. This is the result of the decisions taken by two of the Islamic Republic's policy-making bodies, namely the Supreme National Security Council over two periods, and the Foreign Policy Higher Council, which effectively gave Russia technical control of the nuclear program.

Khamenei may have had this dependency in mind when, in 2018, he ordered uranium to be enriched beyond 60% (closer to the grade needed for weaponry). Ostensibly the order was a response to U.S. pressures, but it may well have been a bid to recover some of the keys Russia has held in this sector for 30 years, in spite of the technical and financial challenges of doing so.

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In The News
Yannick Champion-Osselin, Sophie Jacquier, Anne-Sophie Goninet and Katarzyna Skiba

Submarine Search Sounds, Biden Calls Xi A “Dictator”, Stonehenge Solstice

👋 Kamusta!*

Welcome to Wednesday, where time is running out to find the missing Titanic submarine explorer, Joe Biden calls Xi Jinping a “dictator,” and the“best in the world” restaurant is in a surprising city. Meanwhile, Laura Berlinghieri in Italian daily La Stampa highlights renewed efforts by the country's right-wing government to crack down on same-sex parents.

[*Tagalog, Philippines]

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Soft Power, Hard Ball: Why The U.S. Wants Back In UNESCO

The U.S. is set to rejoin UNESCO, after Donald Trump pulled the country out in 2017, accusing it of being biased against Israel. The reasons for the return include artificial intelligence and pure geopolitics.

-Analysis-

PARIS — When the U.S. takes a diplomatic initiative in the current climate, China is never far from its thoughts. This is partly the case with Washington's decision, announced yesterday, to rejoin UNESCO after several years of absence. A decision made all the more spectacular in that the U.S. has even pledged to pay its arrears of dues — hundreds of millions of dollars.

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