-Analysis-
PARIS — Only a month ago, the United States vetoed a UN Security Council resolution opposing an unconditional ceasefire in Gaza. On Thursday, Washington introduced its own draft resolution calling for an “immediate ceasefire”: a turning point in American diplomacy.
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The resolution could be put to the vote as early as Friday, with Europeans also having called this week for an “immediate humanitarian pause.”
The reason for this development is not hard to see: since the beginning of the month, the Biden administration has been openly criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his conducting of the war that led has led to a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. Senate Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has even gone so far as to call for Netanyahu to go.
With this UN resolution, the Americans are stepping up their pressure on Netanyahu. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is in Israel to support the message, to prevent an Israeli offensive on the overcrowded Gaza town of Rafah, and to think about the post-war period.
Israel’s best friend
What if Netanyahu won’t listen? It’s a real possibility: the Israeli Prime Minister is a devious politician. He is playing the Republican card in the United States against Joe Biden. He may soon be able to address the elected representatives in the Republican-dominated House of Representatives to mobilize them; in an election year, this is explosive.
Netanyahu is also trying to mobilize his own population by presenting himself as the only one capable of winning this war, even against the advice of Israel’s best friend, the U.S.. For a prime minister with only 20% of Israeli public approval, it’s a risky ploy that could just work.
But Israel and the United States are playing a game of liar’s poker. The Americans won’t give up on Israel no matter what, if only because of the Iranian shadow hanging over the region — so their current pressure has its limits. The Israelis, meanwhile, know American support is vital, especially in terms of arms and munitions. The feud is therefore taking place within a controlled framework.
Humanitarian castastrophe in Gaza
The Americans are hoping for a swift conclusion to the negotiations resuming today in Qatar on a six-week ceasefire that will allow a hostage-for-prisoner exchange and the arrival of aid to Gazans.
The United States will have its back against the wall.
But should this fail, and should Netanyahu remain determined to launch the assault on Rafah, where he suspects Hamas leaders are hiding, the United States will have its back against the wall. To be consistent, it will have to put real pressure on Israel to show its disapproval of the humanitarian catastrophe in progress. Biden owes this in particular to those of his constituents who denounce his support for Israel and threaten to withhold their support on November 5.
So there’s a moment of truth in Israeli-American relations, or rather between Biden and Netanyahu. As starvation threatens the people of Gaza after nearly six months of a ruthless military campaign, the Americans must push through their resolution for an immediate ceasefire as quickly as possible. Then comes the question of whether it will be respected.
