-Analysis-
PARIS — No matter what the country, when you speak to a politician these days, the conversation systematically winds up on the same question: “Can Donald Trump win?” — or by now, also the alternative “Can Donald Trump lose?”
The election in the United States is just over 10 months away, on Nov. 5, 2024, but it is already sending the world into a frenzy, because the two likely candidates — Donald Trump and Joe Biden — represent different Americas, and neither is certain of victory. For the rest of the world, the consequences are considerable.
For Trump, it’s the law that won’t let him off the hook; for Biden, it’s his support for Israel that’s dragging him down in the polls.
Trump’s legal conundrum
Every day brings a surprise. The latest came from the Colorado Supreme Court, which decided, by a vote of 4 to 3, to exclude Donald Trump from the Republican primaries in the state, because of his support for an act of sedition, the assault on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Could this decision block Donald Trump? Whatever way you look at it, the decision has caused a serious shock, because there is a difference between Donald Trump’s various lawsuits, to which his voters are relatively indifferent, and a decision to block his path to the Oval Office.
The ruling could have a ripple effect.
For the time being, this is a decision in a single state, but it could have a ripple effect. The former president is expected to appeal to the more conservative U.S. Supreme Court. But if it upholds the decision, the ruling could apply to all 50 states.
Currently, Trump is leading the Republican race by a wide margin. But if he is weakened by the courts, this could change, especially with the alternative candidacy of Nikki Haley, the former ambassador to the UN, who is emerging as a credible challenger. We’re still a long way from that, but uncertainty is setting in.
Biden’s Israel problem
In the Democratic camp, the incumbent president took a beating on Tuesday when a poll was published in The New York Times. Not only is Trump ahead of him by two points, but what the poll says about the war in Gaza may be even more problematic for Biden.
Americans are equally divided on whether the Israeli bombings should continue or be halted; and young people, who are normally more supportive of Democrats, are notably highly critical of Biden’s policy, for being too close to Israel and its war policy.
This is a fact that the President cannot ignore, even if it still does not dictate his choices. It may have an impact on his relations Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when it comes to ending the war, and above all in the post-war period: Biden will be keen to show his disappointed voters that he is committed to a political solution for the Palestinians, something that Netanyahu does not want.
In both camps, thus, the uncertainty is profound. And this uncertainty has far-reaching implications for the rest of the world, as Beijing, Moscow, Kyiv, Jerusalem and Paris prepare for these two potential outcomes: continuity with Biden and fracture with Trump. You can guarantee that 2024 will be high pressure, from Washington and the world.
