-Analysis-
PARIS — Following French politics on my current visit to the United States means dividing my brain, as I would share my screen.
On one side, the unprecedented spectacle of the French post-legislative period, with its variable and sometimes scandalous alliances, its divide into three antagonistic blocks. And on the other, a U.S. presidential campaign with its insane twists and turns, from the providential attack against Donald Trump to the dramatic departure of an aging president from the electoral race under pressure from his party and allies.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
Not exactly the picture of healthy democracies, on either side of the Atlantic; France and the United States play decisive roles in many questions about representative democracy itself as well as about global balances.
Old democracies
If there’s one thing the two societies have in common, it’s the majority’s disappointment, as expressed in the polls, at the dysfunction of old democracies, perceived as inefficient, distorted by the power of money and insensitive to the problems of ordinary people. In France and the U.S., the task of democratic reform has not even begun, and the events of 2024 show that partisan issues are still taking precedence over the need to rethink the system and its practices.
But it is above all the impact of both these systemic crises on the global balance that is cause for concern in the short term. The United States is, and remains, the world’s leading power, with the largest economy, largest army and largest technology companies.
Any wobble or turn in Washington, like a butterfly effect, has repercussions on every continent, every war and rift on this boiling planet. That is precisely what is at risk if Donald Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, are elected on Nov. 5 with their very right-wing ideological baggage; and that is what Kamala Harris will be trying to prevent, for the United States and for the world, as she is thrust to the forefront of what will be a brutal confrontation.
Zone of turbulence
France, for its part, does not have the global impact of its American ally, but it has long called for Europe to organize itself in case of an American eclipse. Yet it is at this very moment that France itself is entering a zone of turbulence that is making it less influential — if not inaudible.
This is tragic; in a few months, the ground risks crumbling beneath the Europeans’ feet if the United States elects an unpredictable president who has no love for the old continent, takes a transactional approach to diplomacy (“you pay, I defend you”), and revives an old isolationist base mixed with Chinese obsession.
When I meet members of the U.S. establishment these days, they immediately ask about what is going on in France, while I try to get their analysis of what is going on in the United States.
Strangely, everyone remains in their own national bubble.
This provides an interesting perspective of two political crises in very different systems and political cultures, but which have points in common: the revolt of those “excluded” from the system, who vote populist; the emergence of a true far-right movement that does not have the same historical and social origins, but that shares themes such as immigration, security and even a fascination for Putin’s Russia; and finally, voters fed by the so-called “alternative” media, surfing on the hatred of “mainstream” journalism in the hands of the powerful.
French and American political cultures may be radically different, but these similarities, which we had already pointed out in 2016, the fateful year of Brexit and Trump 1.0, are found again in 2024, with the rise of the far right in Europe and a possible Trump 2.0. Strangely, everyone remains in their own national bubble, blind to the major trends at work, which also call for global reflection.
