Worldcrunch
The Saudis could regain the political and financial clout they once enjoyed in Lebanon, which was lost for two decades to Hezbollah and its foreign patrons. Could that restore a measure of prosperity to a country brought to its knees by decades of civil war and the unwelcome interventions of Tehran and Damascus.
Concerned about Islamic State sleeper cells in Syria, neighboring Jordan is cautiously hoping the country’s interim president, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, will support international efforts to combat ISIS.
Hezbollah has emerged notably weaker from the war with Israel. The image of the protector that it had entrenched in Lebanon’s Shiite consciousness was shattered by the war in favor of an idea that calls for the Lebanese army as an alternative guardian. Yet Hezbollah is hardly fading away.
The year started without the tyrant of Damascus. Lebanon elected a president. Gaza has a ceasefire. Some of this progress is due to external geopolitical forces, yet there are signs that the region could be turning around from within.
Regime change in Syria is a big point Turkey has scored against its regional rival the Islamic Republic of Iran, which may soon be pushed out of another crucial sector, trade and transportation in the Caucasus, Shahram Sabzevari writes in Kayhan-London.
Despite her pleasant air and sense of fashion, the now former Syrian First Lady Asma al-Assad was bound to be tied to her husband’s fate. Born and raised in the UK, she was respected by some for openly battling cancer and later adored in China for her glamour. Still, she was largely despised at home for having helped cover her husband’s long list of alleged war crimes.
While Russia had to negotiate with former Syrian rebels for the withdrawal of around 500 Russian soldiers trapped in Damascus, Vladimir Putin remained silent on the crushing defeat he suffered in Syria. Instead, he has threatened the West, as if to show he is not weakened by the fall of his ally Assad.
A post-Assad tour of Damascus, that singular Middle East capital, from which the Ba’ath Party spared nothing and desecrated everything. How quickly it shed all the ugliness that the Assad regime had spread over more than five decades!
Israel’s decimation of Iran’s proxies in Gaza and Lebanon, and now events in Syria, have shown the Tehran regime is far weaker than it had wanted the world and its neighbors to believe. The Supreme Leader is now scrambling to rationalize it all, as the Islamic Republic clings to power.
The overthrow of the Assad regime is about more than just Russia’s boasting rights as a major power. It will have consequences on the war in Ukraine, and Russian expansion in Africa. Indeed, it may be proof that it is not a major power.
The scenes of joy and vengeance in Damascus recall the outpouring in Baghdad in 2003 when Saddam Hussein, and his statues, were toppled after years of rule by the same bloody political Ba’athist ideology that has held sway in the region for 77 years. But beware the risks of De-Ba’athification like in Iraq.
We must first recognize the joy of the Syrian people at the fall of a brutal regime that ruled for more than half a century. Yet, there’s also major geopolitical stakes in this highly sensitive region, with its losers — Russia and Iran — and its winners, foremost among them Erdogan’s Turkey. And a ton of uncertainty.
The surprise attack by rebel groups on Syrian government forces in Aleppo has raised many questions since it coincided with the ceasefire deal in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel. With so many forces and interests around Syria, don’t expect the reignited conflict to end anytime soon.
Turkey has become increasingly concerned about Israel’s expansionist ambitions, both for peace in the region and the Turkish claims to contested territory, given Israeli officials’ comments about “Greater Israel.”
Israel is on the hunt in Lebanon one more time, with apparent early successes. But it has again ignored the fact that something always rises from the ashes.
Israel’s aggression over the past few months, no matter how successful, is ultimately a sign of its weakness. Yet it is able to achieve its goals from the support it receives from a number of players inside and outside the region, whether they realize it or not. That even, paradoxically, includes Iran.
Under pressure from Arab states and Russia, which calls the shots in Syria, President Bashar al-Assad is tiptoeing away from the Iranian regime, a troublesome ally that has nevertheless spent billions of dollars to help keep him in power.
Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, viewed the confession of a detained militant as a “proof” that Ukraine was involved in the deadly attack. They employed it to facilitate comprehensive military mobilization ahead of a looming fresh large offensive on Ukraine.