BEIRUT — The Syrian extremist opposition groups launched a large-scale attack on areas controlled by the Syrian government last week, justifying the offensive as a response to weeks of attacks by government and Russian forces despite the fact that such an offensive requires years of preparations.
The attack, which has killed more than 300 people so far, raised multiple questions since it coincided with the start of the implementation of the ceasefire deal in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel. Many conflicting theories have been circulated on social media about the reasons behind this offensive which is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a group that grew out of the al-Qaeda.
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The offensive, however, swiftly turned from breaches of the regime’s defensive lines into a torrent that swept through dozens of towns, strategic sites, facilities, and important military points, all the way to the city of Aleppo, which has great economic and political importance.
This stunning advance, if we confine its first phase to the towns of the so-called buffer zone as laid out by the Sochi Agreement, and then its second phase to the city of Aleppo, raises several questions about what happens now as the opposition tries to continue its offensive.
The Sochi Agreement
The offensive, especially in its first hours, raised discussions about the Sochi Agreement, which was concluded in September 2018 between Turkey and Russia. The deal was seen as one of the turning points in the Syrian conflict, as it enabled a large part of the Syrian opposition forces to maintain their military presence and reorganize themselves with Turkish support and armament. These forces have since then been equipped with modern technologies and advanced and qualitative weapons.
The agreement stipulated the establishment of a Turkish-Russian demilitarized buffer zone around Idlib Province, with the aim of reducing the escalation, with a depth of up to 20 kilometers (12.5 miles) to separate the areas controlled by the opposition forces and those controlled by the regime forces. This area extends from Aleppo’s northwestern countryside to the northern countryside of Latakia province, passing through the countryside of Hama province.
However, the deal has been repeatedly violated. In the first six months, 4,584 violations were registered, the majority of which were blamed on the regime forces, according to a report by the Syrian Network for Human Rights in March 2019.
Meanwhile, Turkey carried out a series of violations of another kind. It established a number of non-agreed upon observation points, and ensured that the armed opposition factions remained within the isolated area.
The buffer zone area gradually fell into the hands of the regime forces which are backed by pro-Iranian militias and Russian air power. The regime forces continued their advances over the years, seizing a large number of towns in Idlib province. They took control of Maarat al-Numan, the province’s second-largest city, in January 2020, then the city of Saraqib and the town of Kafranbel in February the same year.
Opposition forces meanwhile took control of the western part of the enclave with Turkish support. By Wednesday, Syrian government forces had launched a counterattack against the rebels near the key city of Hama, which is seen as a gateway to Damascus.
A historical turning point
The attack on Aleppo was a historic turning point, and in its first phase, it turned back the clock, in one way or another, to the 2018 Sochi Agreement. And in its second phase, it exceeded the limits of the agreement and took control of the city of Aleppo, which can be considered, in the absence of escalation by Russia, as real pressure for the first time in years on the regime in order to push it to implement the United Nations’ Security Council’s resolution No. 2254 issued in 2015 which called for a comprehensive political solution, end the armed conflict.
The regime’s refusal to negotiate and its obstruction of all efforts for a political solution were clear in all stages and chapters of the Syrian conflict. This refusal still exists, as the regime’s media outlets call all opposition factions “terrorist groups” without any distinction between them, even the “Syrian National Army” which is backed by Turkey.
Media outlets were quick to label thousands of Syrians fighting to return to their areas as “terrorists.”
A number of Lebanese media outlets share this approach with the regime’s media outlets, such as Al-Jadeed TV, which tries through its media policy to appear “moderate” and refuses day and night to label Hezbollah as “terrorist” because it is a party supported by more than a quarter of the Lebanese people and has deputies and ministers on the one hand, and its organizational base is made up of a large number of people from the south and the Bekaa on the other hand.
These media outlets were quick to label thousands of Syrians fighting to return to their areas as “terrorists,” and have so far taken control of very large areas to the point that the city of Aleppo opened its doors to them without any significant resistance or serious clashes. Some Aleppo residents began to receive them with caution and anticipation, before the Syrian opposition forces imposed a temporary curfew until they took control of the city.
The regime’s attacks since 2019 have resulted in additional waves of displacement towards the city of Idlib, causing its population to swell to 5 million people amid extremely dire economic conditions. Most of the population were people who fled their homes because of attacks by the Syrian regime forces or the Islamic State group before its defeat.
Tens of thousands of those displaced from those areas are now fighting to return to their homes. Their main motivation, and what makes them fight with unparalleled ferocity, and control vast areas of land in a record period of time, is to return to their land, in addition to escaping the hell of Idlib, which is overcrowded and economically helpless.
With the absence of the Russian air cover in the first hours of the attack, the dream of returning has become a tangible reality for them, fueling something greater than returning the borders to what they were in 2018, and perhaps more dangerous in the long run, in light of the extremely sensitive situation in the Middle East region that is boiling over.
The same applies to the Tal Rifaat area and the surrounding towns and villages under the control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, whose front could be opened wide in the next stage after the control of the city of Aleppo. About 250,000 people in these areas are displaced and live in camps on the Syrian-Turkish border. Thousands of them have been recruited into the Syrian National Army, but such a counterattack could cause a counter-displacement of tens of thousands of Kurds towards eastern Syria, given that the Syrian National Army is the Syrian arm of Turkey’s military.
Sectarian trap
The people of the areas displaced after the failure of the Sochi Agreement constitute a large part of the fighters of the armed opposition factions. At the same time, the pro-regime media is focusing on a number of foreign fighters involved in the fighting with some extremist Sunni Islamic factions, to portray the matter as if it were a “terrorist ISIS” attack against “Syrian national areas.”
The regime forces are in turn using a large number of extremist sectarian foreign fighters in their “national” war against more than half of the Syrian people. The pro-Iranian Afghan Fatemiyoun Brigade has taken positions in the Aleppo countryside in an initial attempt to repel the sweeping attack. Iraqi factions and militias began to mobilize and threaten to enter Syrian territory.
In the same way, the Turkish authorities deal with the Kurds of northern Syria, describing all their political and military organizations, especially the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and its branches, as “terrorists.” The Syrian opposition also deals with the Shiite-majority cities of Nubl and Zahraa in the Aleppo countryside with this disdain. It portrayed the two towns as if they constituted an imminent danger simply because of the presence of pro-Iranian militias.
It is possible and necessary to avert besieging the two towns in the event of control over their surroundings in the northern Aleppo countryside, in order to avoid a new round of sectarian tensions.
Conspiracy theories and Russia’s role
Conspiracy theories began to spread on the second day of the offensive, especially in Lebanon, where many linked the attack to the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah.
Some described the attack as an Israeli decision — a part of the “New Middle East Project” — despite the fact that Turkey was the one that decided the attack, with Russian approval.
There is a unanimous international decision in the East and the West to limit Iranian influence in the region through ending the loyal militias.
We in Lebanon have begun to pay the heavy price for this decision. Our country, whose security has been organically linked to Hezbollah’s security after decades of the party’s accumulation of power, has now become open to all dangerous possibilities.
Syria as a whole will head towards the furnace of a new long-term war.
The offensive could be divided into two stages so far. The first stage has been completed, which is the opposition forces’ control over the de-escalation zones (Sochi Agreement) that the Syrian regime forces have stormed since 2019.
This stage was met with international political silence, and enjoyed Turkish cover with Russian “facilitations”, especially after the failure of normalization negotiations between the Syrian regime and Turkey, and the continued failure of the Astana talks. This stage ended after the opposition forces reached western Aleppo, where artillery was stationed and preparations were made for the larger attack.
As for the second stage, its features began to take shape after the opposition forces tightened their control over the largest part of Aleppo and the withdrawal of the regime forces. It is expected that it will be accompanied by an attack by the Syrian National Army, with the possible participation of the Turkish army, on the city of Tal Rifaat and the surrounding areas that are still under the control of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.
The mobilization of combat forces has already begun on the outskirts of the towns of Azaz, Mare’ and Afrin. But what is striking is that despite the lack of declared Russian political cover in the Tal Rifaat area, the withdrawal of the Russian military police from Tal Rifaat and the Menagh air base indicates initial Russian approval for the attack.
Regional dynamics
After the complete control of the city of Aleppo, which is the county’s industrial and commercial, Syria as a whole will head towards the furnace of a new long-term war, and it is possible that all the red lines that the Turkish or Russian authorities can set will fall.
Russian forces will begin to attack with intensive air strikes, because the knife has begun to reach the neck of the Assad regime and will directly threaten its ability to survive. It will go beyond weakening the Iranian-backed militias.
These developments are closely linked Israel’s severe blows to Hezbollah.
Syrian rebel groups also announced the start of an offensive to take control of the eastern countryside of Aleppo. It is also likely that a joint attack will begin by the rebels and the Turkish military in the city of Manbij, which is under the control of the Turkish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, in an attempt to link all areas controlled by Turkey together.
All these military and political developments in northern Syria indicate the existence of a meticulous plan and cunning exploitation of the favorable historical political moment by the Syrian opposition forces and Turkey. These developments are closely linked Israel’s severe blows to Hezbollah.
However, they are not linked to an Israeli or even American decision, but rather a Turkish one and Russian approval.
They are also linked to the escalation of popular and tribal discontent against the presence of pro-Iranian militias in the strategic Al Bukamal region on the Syrian-Iraqi border, and to the popular separatist sentiment in the provinces of Daraa and Sweida.
Russia also appears to be fed up with the growing Iranian influence in Syria to the point of risking its own influence by allowing opposition forces to penetrate into vast geographical areas without any initial reaction.
Added to that is to the sagging of the Assad regime under economic and social pressures, the continuation of authoritarian policies, random arrests and forced recruitment, and the ambiguity of the regime’s foreign policies, which seem more than ever like walking through a minefield.
