-Analysis-
AMMAN — Jordan and its Western allies are betting on Syria’s interim president, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, to support efforts to combat the Islamic State (ISIS), which is currently restructuring its elements in the Badiya desert region in southern Syria. ISIS is exploiting the collapse of the security system and seizing weapons that have spread after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Despite the Syrian state system not yet being fully established three months after Assad’s overthrow, Jordan is seeking positive engagement with its northern neighbor to ensure border security and to try to distance Damascus from Turkey’s influence in the new landscape.
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Jordan’s position is based on the concept of a common enemy of the two countries and the background of Al-Sharaa and his underground jihadist teams. His teams are are well-versed in the exclusionary logistics of the Islamist terror organization, and its internal and external operations. They also have knowledge of the locations of its followers, the ways ISIS has been financed since its expansion in Syria and Iraq in the early 2010s, and its later retreat under the hammer of an international Arab coalition.
The fragile and volatile situation in Syria, the risk of advanced weapon stockpiles falling into the hands of extremist groups, and the restructuring of the organization over the past year have all raised concerns for Jordan and the West. They fear that bleeding Syria could become a new haven for ISIS and that the organization could activate revenge strategies.
The United Nations has affirmed these concerns, reporting two weeks ago that the Badiya desert region continues to be used as a center for external operational planning and remains a vital area for ISIS. According to the UN, elements of the organization fled to the desert to escape factions affiliated with Ahmed Al-Sharaa’s Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group, which moved from Idlib to Aleppo, Homs, and Hama and eventually reached Damascus.
Active and sleeper cells
Around 5,000 ISIS members remain in Syria, spread across “active and sleeper cells,” since their expulsion from their last strongholds six years ago. That phase marked a shift from a military structure to security infiltration, according to Islamic movements expert Hassan Abu Hanieh. He argues that the organization “significantly restructured itself even before Al-Sharaa and his allies took control.” ISIS had been targeting the U.S.-backed Kurdish SDF forces, formations of the former regime, and militias linked to Iran. This assessment aligns with the U.S. Central Command’s announcement that it struck 75 ISIS targets in Syria on December 8, the day former President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow.
ISIS attacks in Syria tripled last year compared to 2023, reaching 700 strikes, according to the Soufan Center in the U.S., which specializes in security challenges and foreign policy issues. Given the security chaos, there are fears that ISIS could once again storm prisons, as it did in 2022 when it freed 500 members. Any such action could encourage attacks in neighboring Turkey or even facilitate the travel of ISIS members to Europe, where the phenomenon of “lone wolves” who adopt the group’s ideology may intensify.
ISIS remains highly dangerous and is waiting to see what happens.
Additionally, the estimated 45,000 ISIS-affiliated families and children crammed into the Al-Hol and Al-Baghuz camps pose another threat. Most of the detained children have now become “lion cubs” and serve as a reserve force for the organization, according to Abu Hanieh.
Other elements are escaping from prisons and camps in northeastern Syria, and internal security forces continue to thwart similar attempts by fighters and their families. Abu Hanieh states, “ISIS remains highly dangerous and is waiting to see what happens,” adding that the group is betting on “chaos and instability due to regional and international rivalries.” Iran and ISIS are both attempting to mobilize groups seeking revenge against Al-Sharaa, posing a threat to Jordan, Turkey and Iraq.
While Turkish forces, under siege, are repelling attacks from U.S.-backed militias in northern Syria, security experts doubt they will continue securing the compounds where thousands of ISIS members and their families are detained.
Jordan’s controversial bet
Since the disintegration of Assad’s forces and the retreat of Hezbollah militias, the Jordanian army has been “protecting border security” from the Jordanian side of the northern front, after detecting the rise of ISIS cells at the expense of declining arms and drug-smuggling gangs. Amman has also arranged for groups in Sweida province to help curb smuggling after Assad’s departure.
The Al-Tanf base plays a key role as a strategic U.S. military outpost in southeastern Homs province, at the intersection of Syria’s borders with Jordan and Iraq. It monitors and confronts ISIS elements. There is an implicit agreement with Al-Sharaa to prevent any armed militias — some of which are extremist and takfiri—from attempting to move toward Jordan’s borders, a red line for both Amman and Israel.
Meanwhile, Israel is warning Al-Sharaa’s administration against “any miscalculated steps” in areas adjacent to its borders, insisting that southern Syria must remain demilitarized.
Legacy and future outlook
Jordanian officials recognize the difficulty in changing the “DNA” of Al-Sharaa and of the extremist armed factions under HTS. Yet there is no option but to cautiously open up to him in a gradual manner, aiming for more balanced relations with the broader Sunni Arab world to counter Turkey’s influence. Jordan is also working to introduce him to other nations and secure the 375 km-long shared border.
Geopolitical and national security expert Dr. Amer Al-Sabayleh believes Jordan is still in the trust-building phase with Al-Sharaa’s system. He told Daraj: “Everyone may count on Al-Sharaa if he genuinely proves he wants to be a partner and that his path to legitimizing relations with the international community is through fighting ISIS.”
Amman has sent several positive signals to Al-Sharaa. When he recently visited for two hours — his third foreign stop after Riyadh and Ankara — Jordan’s King Abdullah II received him at the aircraft’s steps and walked with him on a red carpet. Abdullah introduced him to senior state officials before personally escorting him in his black armored car to Raghadan Palace.
According to sources familiar with the matter, Jordanian-Syrian talks were dominated by security concerns regarding border protection, extremist organizations and smuggling. Officials, speaking anonymously, stated that Amman is prepared to train special forces for the new army being formed and to send trainers to Syria.
A Jordanian approach
In meetings with Arab and Western delegations, Abdullah has proposed several strategies for handling the changes in Syria. These include integrating Al-Sharaa into efforts to combat ISIS to prevent terrorist organizations from resuming attacks on U.S. allies and interests. He also suggested maintaining pressure on him while ensuring Syria’s new state is inclusive by keeping sanctions in place and gradually easing them under a “step-by-step” approach.
Additionally, he stressed the importance of maintaining U.S. forces in the self-administration zone protected by the SDF, which consists of roughly 100,000 fighters, most of them Kurds. The continued U.S. presence in northeastern Syria contributes to power balance and prevents retaliatory threats from Assad’s allies following their declining influence in Syria and Lebanon.
Jordan has multiple reservations about Al-Sharaa’s leadership style.
Another proposal under discussion is to keep ISIS detainee prisons open, transfer them to Iraq for trial, or pressure their home countries to take them back. There is also a need to monitor key developments in Syria, including the criteria for forming the new government and interim legislative council, which will determine the constitution and the state’s identity — ensuring it is inclusive and free of exclusion and power monopolization.
A Jordanian official noted that the kingdom has multiple reservations about Al-Sharaa’s leadership style, his tendency to monopolize power, his selection of a homogeneous cabinet, and his inconsistent implementation of Western-backed decisions, such as hastily organizing the National Dialogue Conference. Concerns also remain about the extended timeline Al-Sharaa has set for parliamentary elections.
The official added: “We are forced to tolerate things we dislike because we do not want border chaos or fighting in Damascus, which would trigger new refugee waves. But we will not wait forever if he does not change his approach,” warning that Jordan would adopt a unified stance with the West in dealing with him.
