-Analysis-
CAIRO — As the late American actor Will Rogers once said, “if you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.”
This past Saturday morning, while Israeli commandos were raiding the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza to free four hostages, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was waiting to hear either good or disastrous news for him and his government. The raid successfully rescued the four hostages, but killed at least 274 Palestinians.
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The operation — Israel’s most successful of its eight-month war against Hamas — gave a lifeline to Netanyahu’s far-right government as it fights for survival. It has not only literal meaning in Gaza and northern Israel but also metaphorical meaning given the clashes between government members, and the daily threats to topple it.
The euphoria of the political victory swept the Israeli right. And the military victory contradicted reports of an exhausted military. But adverse side effects have appeared, as can be seen in the political debate over Israel’s priorities. While Netanyahu and his allies on the right want to pursue the war until they reach a complete victory over Hamas, many Israelis — in politics and the military — prioritize freeing the hostages even if that requires a permanent ceasefire.
How about the rest?
Freeing the hostages was expected to consolidate Israeli public opinion behind the Netanyahu government, but many have turned the discussion to the impact this operation may have on the remaining hostages.
On Saturday evening, protesters took to the streets in Tel Aviv, with families of the hostages and other protesters clashed with security forces. They didn’t celebrate the rescue of four hostages, rather they called for early elections and the resignation of the government.
“Netanyahu is preventing us from progressing to a real victory.”
The day after the operation, Benny Gantz resigned from the war Cabinet, saying that Netanyahu’s political considerations were hindering strategic decisions, preventing a real victory.
“Unfortunately, Netanyahu is preventing us from progressing to a real victory,” Gantz, head of the centrist National Unity Party, said in a news conference on Sunday. “That is why we are leaving the emergency government today with a heavy heart but wholeheartedly.”
Along with Gantz, his fellow National Unity ministers Gadi Eisenkot and Chili Tropper also resigned from the government, leaving the prime minister more reliant on his far-right allies: Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir.
A victory-turned-crisis
So why did this important tactical victory turn into a crisis?
The operation killed at least 274 Palestinians, including dozens of children, according to health authorities in Gaza. The Qassam Brigades, the military arm of Hamas, said that three more hostages, including an American national, were also killed. And the Israeli military announced the death of Arnon Zamora, who led a team of Israeli commando fighters during the operation.
It was a terrible price. Many Israelis realized that the operation’s losses were greater than its gains.
As retired Israeli Army General Israel Ziv said in a radio interview, the goal is not to free four and leave more than a hundred others vulnerable to Palestinian outrage, or at least to lead to tightening security around them. Calling the operation “the most complex and dangerous that Israel has ever carried out,” Ziv said that Hamas will learn lessons and make changes to make the next operation more difficult.”
Ziv’s comments reflect growing fears among the hostages’ families and others that Hamas will be more cautious with the remaining hostages, taking stricter security measures, putting them in worse conditions and possibly moving them through the tunnels. In this sense, it seems the operation’s goals were political — not related to the safety of hostages — meant to give Netanyahu the Hollywood image he needed to stay in power — even at the hostages’ expense.
Not only Israel
The operation also had repercussions on the United States, Israel’s closest ally, after media outlets reported that it provided intelligence on the hostages before the rescue mission. This involvement has raised questions over the United States’ temporary aid pier in Gaza and the forces protecting it. While The Pentagon said on Monday that reports linking the pier to the rescue operation are “inaccurate,” the situation could increase anxiety among American decision makers ahead of the November presidential elections.
“Israel’s strategic situation will also remain in the same place: stuck.”
As Israeli journalist Ben Caspit wrote in the Hebrew-language daily newspaper Maariv. “True, this operation brought back some of our lost self-confidence and faith in our abilities. But even the day after this magical Sabbath, the sun will rise from the same place, and Israel’s strategic situation will also remain in the same place: stuck.”
Netanyahu has continued to dig his hole deeper, rather than trying to get out of it.
