Nawrocki Can Thank Donald Tusk For His Election — And Now Poland Is A Battle Between The Two

-Analysis-

WARSAW — The results of the presidential election have shown a Poland that is split exactly in half, with two political camps that are equally strong. But in the most immediate terms, the choice of Karol Nawrocki as the next president means that our country stands before major potential upheaval.

First of all, it must be emphasized that this was a democratic election. Nawrocki’s victory
was the most narrow in the history of presidential elections in the Third Polish Republic, with fewer than 370,000 votes separating the candidates in a country of more than 36 million. His legitimacy, however, is indisputable.

It would be desperation for anyone to question Sunday’s vote. Not only this, but this election had a record turnout for a Polish election — the highest in any second round of a presidential election in Poland.

Slap against Tusk’s government

This is undoubtedly a bad mark for the divided ruling camp led by Prime Minister Donald
Tusk. The decisive factor was the lower turnout than in 2023, when the populist-nationalist PiS government was removed from power after eight years. It was lower by almost 3 percentage points, approximately 650,000 votes on the side of the coalition on October 15.

The government has very low ratings, and Rafał Trzaskowski was clearly associated with Tusk and company. He was harmed by the failure to fulfill some important election promises, and even the lack of an attempt to fulfill them.

That includes the failure to get the liberalization of the abortion law through parliament and to outgoing President Andrzej Duda’s desk. Although it would have been vetoed anyway, it would have shown that the coalition government is able to agree on its basic promises to voters.

Trzaskowski’s night of horror

This burden certainly dragged Trzaskowski down and caused an extraordinary mobilization in the ranks of opponents of the current centrist Tusk government, including both right-wing PiS and far-right Konfederacja voters.

For them, even Nawrocki’s past — boasting about brutal football hooligan fights, serious accusations of pimping, acquaintances from the underworld, and finally addiction to an unknown substance that he took publicly — was apparently of no real significance.

This will mean obstruction.

More important for these voters was to show the middle finger to “Tusk’s man,” the deputy chairman of the Civic Platform, “rainbow Rafał”, as many of his political opponents
contemptuously call Trzaskowski, referring to his past participation in Pride marches.

One thing is certain: when Karol Nawrocki moves into the Presidential Palace in August, he will feel not only great support from more than 10.6 million voters. He will feel enormous pressure from Jarosław Kaczyński and PiS to damage the coalition government as much as possible. And he will feel like his victory will have been entirely well earned.

Nawrocki is an excellent tool for Kaczyński’s agenda, as has long been warned by Professor Antoni Dudek, who knew the incoming president from his time working at the Institute of National Remembrance.

Specter of early elections

Both Nawrocki and the PiS circles, but also far-right Sławomir Mentzen’s Konfederacja
(Confederation) will do everything to bring about early elections and not wait for 2027. This will mean obstruction in the work of the parliament and a political deadlock in the Sejm.

As president, Nawrocki will block not only the progressive ideas of the government, such as civil partnerships or the liberalization of abortion law. He will block solutions concerning the ordering of the justice system and the exit from legal chaos, if they are not in line with PiS plans.

Nawrocki in the Presidential Palace also means an anti-EU and anti-Ukrainian course, a lack of good relations with Germany or France under the current leaders in Berlin (Friedrich Merz) and Paris (Emmanuel Macron). There will be closer cooperation with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban or Slovakian Robert Fico and other populists in Europe.

Finally, there will be an attempt to undermine the government in its relations with U.S. President Donald Trump, who is much closer to the new host of the Presidential Palace than to Tusk.

This is a huge base.

It will depend on the ruling camp and its leaders, primarily Donald Tusk, whether the current coalition will sink into internal squabbles or survive all the turbulence that is bound to arrive.

The latter is possible. Let me remind you that even in defeat Trzaskowski won 10.3 million votes. This is a huge base of support, and it is possible to govern the country even despite a very unfavorable president.