KYIV — We meet with Olena Zakharchenko, her husband, and their three sons near Lukyanivka, where the first McDonald’s in Kyiv, damaged by recent attacks, has just been repaired. According to locals, this was the ninth strike since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The horror of the initial days of Russian aggression and the bombings in the area forced the Zakharchenko family to flee abroad, as their sons could no longer withstand the stress.
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“You run out onto the balcony, see that missiles have hit, and don’t know what to do next: Grab the kids and run to the shelter, or is it already too late? One son would close the windows, another would pull up his hood and hide in it, the third stopped sleeping altogether. It became clear that we needed to take them somewhere for a while,” Zakharchenko recalls.
Her husband, Artem, was offered a teaching position through a scholarship program at the University of Bremen. In Germany, the Zakharchenko family did not receive social benefits and rented housing on their own. All three sons attended school, including the eldest, 17-year-old Marko, even though he had entered a university in Kyiv and begun online studies. In Germany, he was required to return to school and had to juggle both university and German school simultaneously. While the younger boys, 16 and 14, tried to adapt, Marko never stopped talking about returning home.
“He said it was enough, that Kyiv was his city. I told him, ‘you’re turning 18, you won’t be able to leave the country anymore, because in Ukraine, the gates will close behind you.’ But he was ready to leave us and walk back home to Kyiv,” Zakharchenko recalls.
Returning for education
The Zakharchenko family returned home in the spring of 2023, when Kyiv was under near-nightly drone attacks for a month. Almost two years later, they have adapted to life in a war zone, even though Lukyanivka remains uneasy.
Today, only Olena and their youngest son, now 16, can travel abroad. But the family sees promising educational opportunities in Ukraine. The Germans keep Ukrainian children in mixed-level classes indefinitely, not allowing them to advance further. And when you complete your education, you can only pursue mediocre professions; you can’t enter a university. It doesn’t matter whether you’re in Germany or Ukraine; you can apply to a German university in any case. But if you drop out of the Ukrainian system, it’s very difficult to reach that level again in a German school,” Zakharchenko explains.
She believes that, despite the challenges, the family could have built a new life in Germany. But in Ukraine, they already have a social life, friends and their own home, even if it feels uneasy.
Families reuniting
Ksenia Gabdrakhimova also returned to Ukraine, but for a different reason — her husband remained here.
The full-scale war divided her family, as it did for thousands of women who took their children, emergency bags, and left for various destinations. Her 2-year-old daughter was afraid of sirens. Gabdrakhimova decided to leave for Cyprus to stay with her volunteer friends after the horrific events in Bucha came to light. Initially, she didn’t even apply for temporary protection status. But the war dragged on, bringing new horrifying news from the homeland. Gradually, Gabdrakhimova settled in Cyprus, where, as a trained musician, she began working as a music teacher for Ukrainian children and participated in events organized by the Ukrainian community.
“I went abroad straight from maternity leave, right after the quarantine. It was very hard emotionally. These classes became anti-stress therapy for me. I performed at the opening of the Ukrainian cultural center, at charity events. I even offered to dance during the protests,” Gabdrakhimova recalls.
My soul felt at peace, despite the long journey and fatigue.
On the island, she found friends, built connections, found a job and discovered her calling. But her husband remained in Ukraine. “It’s very hard to live like this. My daughter started to suffer because she missed her dad terribly. I thought, I left Ukraine to protect my child’s mental health and life. But it turns out that she’s starting to experience stress again, now in Cyprus, because she’s not at home,” Gabdrakhimova says.
She doesn’t hide that returning home after such a break was frightening. The news on Telegram scares those abroad more than those in Ukraine, who have gradually adapted to life under shelling.
“It was unusual to see the green Carpathian Mountains after almost two years of desert landscapes in Cyprus, but my soul felt at peace, despite the long journey and fatigue. It felt as if I had never left Kyiv. Here, my child started attending kindergarten. There’s no better place on earth than home,” Gabdrakhimova says.
Building lives abroad
The proportion of refugees planning to return to Ukraine has been decreasing, and by the end of 2024, for the first time, it has fallen below half of those surveyed, according to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), a Kyiv-based think tank. “Those who previously definitely or likely planned to return have changed their intentions towards staying abroad. Some refugees who intended to return at the beginning of 2024 have already done so,” the CES study found.
The main reasons keeping refugees from returning include security concerns, uncertainty and economic factors: difficulties in finding jobs, low living standards, or destroyed housing.
Additionally, according to Ukrainian demographer Ella Libanova, the future of children will be a decisive factor form any refugees in choosing whether to return or remain abroad. This is an objective reality. “We need to explain that after the war, we expect assistance, that we have confirmations of potential investment growth in Ukraine, there will be jobs, decent salaries, and so on. If we don’t do this, nothing will work. Maybe then less than one-third will return home,” Libanova predicts.
Reopening the borders for families
Therefore, it is essential to maintain connections with those who have gone abroad so that after the war and the reopening of borders for men, families can reunite in Ukraine. Minister of National Unity Oleksiy Chernyshov said that unity hubs are being established abroad to help Ukrainians stay connected with their homeland.
“We will work to encourage the return of some citizens, but we must be prepared for the fact that some Ukrainians will remain abroad. To some extent, this is also normal. The main thing is that all Ukrainians preserve their Ukrainian identity and contribute to Ukraine’s development. We are constantly communicating with Ukrainians abroad: they dream about this, but certainly under conditions of safety and security,” said Chernyshov, who firmly believes that at least one-third will come back after the war.
Pavlo Grod, president of the Ukrainian World Congress, emphasized in an interview with the public initiative “Holka” that Ukrainians who remain abroad should run for public office at all levels to strengthen advocacy for Ukraine, establish educational centers, and participate in actions supporting Ukraine.
Dependent on the war
As of mid-2024, approximately 30 million people were living in the territories controlled by the Ukrainian government, according to data from mobile operators Kyivstar, Vodafone, and Lifecell, as cited by demographer Ella Libanova. The future trajectory of this figure largely depends on the duration of the war.
Libanova notes that according to Eurostat, the EU statistical office, as of Dec. 1, 2024, some 4.2 million Ukrainian war migrants were under temporary protection or holding refugee status in EU member states. Approximately another 1 million Ukrainians are in other countries, excluding Russia, with significant numbers in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, as well as smaller communities in Argentina, Georgia and Moldova.
Those 3 million labor migrants plus about 5 million war migrants amounts to 8 million people.
Furthermore, there are at least 3 million “labor migrants” who left before 2024 and have been working abroad. In reality, those so-called “labor migrants” were supposed to return to Ukraine and then leave again. Many of them have obtained residency permits and effectively become residents abroad. Yet they are still considered labor migrants.
Those 3 million labor migrants plus about 5 million war migrants amounts to 8 million people. If we consider labor migrants over a longer period, that number could rise to 9 million,” Libanova said, stressing that the percentage of Ukrainians who will return home depends on when the active phase of the war comes to an end.
