–Analysis–
PARIS — The European Union has adopted a 17th package of sanctions against Russia since it invaded Ukraine more than three years ago. The decision Tuesday looks like a defiant gesture in the wake of the Trump-Putin phone call, which sounds very much like the United States letting go of Ukraine.
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Since President Donald Trump took office four months ago, the U.S. policy stance on Ukraine has been inconsistent. Only last week, Washington was working with the Europeans to push for an unconditional ceasefire, already accepted by Ukraine, with the threat of sanctions against Russia in case of refusal.
On Monday, the masks came off. At the end of his two-hour telephone discussion with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which went so well according to Trump that no one wanted to hang up, the U.S. president published a Pontius Pilate-like post on X: He leaves the two parties to negotiate and washes his hands of what happens next. And sanctions are no longer on the agenda.
Yet another twist
Is this really the end of American involvement? There have been so many twists and turns in the last four months that nothing can be ruled out. Particularly as the Europeans are counting on the faction of Republicans who support Ukraine to push the president not to change course.
U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham thus telephoned French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot on Monday, after the Trump-Putin meeting, to tell him he wasn’t giving up. Graham is championing a bill that has the support of 70 out of 100 senators, stipulating tough sanctions against Russia if negotiations with Ukraine fail.
But he will need the support of the Republican leadership, and therefore, presumably, the green light from the White House, before it can be submitted to the Senate for a vote.
For the time being though, there is no sign of a stop to U.S. military support for Ukraine, either in terms of arms deliveries or, what is perhaps even more important, in terms of intelligence provided by U.S. satellites.
A turning point
Can Europeans take up the slack? That’s precisely what’s at stake right now. The sanctions decided on Tuesday by the EU and the UK show a determination not to give up on Ukraine, whatever the U.S. attitude. This would be a major first, and would have consequences on transatlantic relations.
The new sanctions target some 200 ships from the so-called “phantom fleet”, which Russia uses to circumvent the embargo on its oil sales. Europe is also targeting countries that continue to buy Russian oil, and have even increased their purchases since the invasion to take advantage of the price cap; such as India, with which France has good relations, but which refuses to sanction Russia, its BRICS comrade.
He’s fulfilled his dream of doing business with the Gulf states.
Once again, Ukraine is at a turning point. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted on Tuesday that it was crucial for the United States to remain involved, as Putin would benefit from its withdrawal. Europeans echoed this view.
But Trump, the man who said he’d settle the Ukrainian conflict in 24 hours, dreams of doing business with Russia — just as he did last week when he fulfilled his dream of doing business with the Gulf states.
We’ll have to get used to it: this American president has a mercantile agenda in which the fate of the people weighs very little.
