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PARIS — It is difficult not to take what happened in Polish airspace seriously. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine three and a half years ago, there have been several instances of drones or missiles straying into Polish or Romanian airspace. But 19? It looks more like a test of a NATO country’s air defenses than some firing error.
In any case, that is how Poland sees it, describing it as “provocation,” and NATO countries have mobilized in support. Two Dutch aircraft joined the Polish air force in hunting down the Russian drones, but that’s not all: an Italian radar aircraft was mobilized, a NATO refueling aircraft took off, and a German Patriot anti-aircraft battery was activated. It all sounds like a NATO practice drill — except it wasn’t.
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NATO stress test
Four of the 19 drones, the infamous Iranian-designed Shaheds now produced in Russia, were destroyed, which may not seem like a significant number. But the political fallout is considerable, like a recurring nightmare becoming reality.
The total of 19 drones is a lot to be a mistake, but not much for an attack. Strikes on Ukrainian cities now involve hundreds of these explosive devices. Hence the hypothesis of a test to assess NATO’s response capacity and the willingness of Poland’s allies, or any other neighboring country, to come to their aid. It also tests American reactions.
European solidarity was immediate: Poland thanked the Netherlands for the commitment of two Dutch F-35s that took part Wednesday in this first military engagement. Representatives from the five main European countries—Germany, France, Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom—met yesterday in London to address what they described as “a new level of Russian hostility towards Europe” and to condemn an “unprecedented” act.
The incident nevertheless highlights NATO’s lack of preparation. What would have happened if it had been a massive attack similar to what Ukraine is experiencing? The impact would have been devastating.
Europe shows unity amid tensions
This unprecedented incident will strengthen the climate in favor of European defense. It is pushing European countries closer together and widening the gap with those that are not participating in the collective effort. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski attacked Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, challenging him Wednesday to condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Poland.
Europe is indeed backed into a corner and must react and defend itself.
This sense of drama was also evident in the State of the Union address delivered by Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen to the European Parliament in Strasbourg. She began with the words, “Europe is in a fight. A fight for a continent that is whole and at peace.”
Von der Leyen wanted to appear combative. She’s been widely criticized for her trade agreement with Donald Trump this summer — a poll this week for the online magazine Le Grand Continent showed it was opposed by a vast majority of Europeans.
She called for an “independent” Europe in the face of “great powers that adopt an ambiguous attitude towards Europe, when they are not openly hostile to it.” This is clearly a reference to Trump’s America and Putin’s Russia. These words were spoken just hours after the incident in Poland: Europe is indeed backed into a corner and must react and defend itself.
