–Analysis–
PARIS — “Our Europe, today, is mortal and it can die.” That may well be the most striking sentence in Emmanuel Macron’s keynote speech at Paris’ Sorbonne University. The French president knew a bit of drama was in order to really draw attention to issues often perceived as distant or abstract. He had already described NATO as “brain dead” in 2019, during U.S. President Donald Trump’s term, which sparked significant debate.
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What is he looking to achieve, this time around? Many will see it as an old electoral ploy: polarizing to mobilize voters who sometimes struggle to get on board, giving them a reason to exist — and to vote in the upcoming European Parliament elections. While this underlying motive is never far from any political speech, there is more at stake than that. The reactions from other European heads of state show that Macron has hit a raw nerve, on an existential plane.
In his marathon speech, Macron issued a challenge not only to Europeans and French citizens, but also to himself, presenting himself as he did as a savior, or at least as a leader, in the rescue of a Europe in mortal danger. This is perhaps the most delicate part of the program.
The rules of the game have changed
The challenge is a global one — and not, as might have been expected, solely linked to the war in Ukraine. Although, of course, Macron did discuss the conflict, reaffirming that Europe cannot afford to let Russian President Vladimir Putin win.
A speech that doesn’t hold punched towards the American ally.
No, it is a global challenge because (and this is the other takeaway phrase of Macron’s speech), “the rules of the game have changed.” That is, all the rules of the global game: not only those of war and peace, but also those of state subsidies practiced by both China and the United States; the rules of technology, without which it is futile to claim sovereignty; and finally; the rules of functioning with 27 members, and soon 35, in this Europe that is as much criticized as it is indispensable.
The most striking thing about this lengthy speech is maybe the way it does not hold its punches — be it toward the American ally, whose economic practices have the potential to marginalize Europe, toward the Russian adversary, who threatens the bloc militarily, or toward China, which plays by its own book.
A roadmap for dangerous times
Can Macron’s words find echo in Europe? There has always been a mix of fascination and mistrust whenever a French politician proposes a grand plan for Europe. This goes back a long way and is not limited to Macron, as many European leaders share his clear-cut assessment of the threats facing the union. But are they ready to embrace his solutions? The concept of Europe as a power still frightens some of its members.
We are six months away from a U.S. election that could see a man who hates Europe win.
But if we take as a reference point everything that Europe has achieved in recent years — economically, in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, militarily, with the common financing for the purchase of weapons in the context of the war in Ukraine, or technologically, with strategic investments in semiconductors or electric batteries — then there is reason for cautious optimism.
It is, above all, a matter of timing: We are six months away from a major American election that could see a man who hates the European Union win. If Trump wins on Nov. 5, Macron’s speech can serve as a roadmap in a world that has suddenly become more dangerous. Until then, it will first serve as an electoral program for his supporters.
