-Analysis-
PARIS — The Europeans are pretending… And they are doing it well. The Coalition of the Willing meeting on Thursday in Paris brings together most of the member countries of the European Union, the United Kingdom, and a few non-European countries such as Canada and Japan. This informal alliance is meeting to draw up a plan for security guarantees that it can offer Ukraine once the fighting has stopped.
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Except that… The war is not about to come to an end, as events have amply demonstrated since the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska last month, which failed to produce any real breakthrough.
The challenge for the Coalition of the Willing is therefore not really to prepare for a peace that is not coming; it is to convince one man: Donald Trump. This reflects Europe’s dependence on the United States for some of its military equipment and, more generally, its security. Europe is prepared to make many concessions to keep the United States on its side, even with an unpredictable and transactional president like Trump.
Trump at a critical juncture
The U.S. president has changed his positions many times over the past six months, both with regard to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and to Europe and Russia. He now finds himself at a critical juncture.
Trump wanted a rapprochement with Vladimir Putin at all costs. But the price to pay was too high. The images of the Russian president at yesterday’s military parade in Beijing certainly did not please him: We hope he has understood that he will not succeed in detaching Putin from Xi Jinping’s China.
Yet the war in Ukraine remains, and this is where the Coalition of the Willing comes in. The Europeans have managed to get back into the loop of a discussion that was initially happening without them. They are acting as Ukraine’s advocates, calling for renewed U.S. involvement, even if it means paying for the weapons being delivered to Kyiv.
Russian aggression
The Europeans want to show the Americans that they are serious about their commitment to take their share of security guarantees to Ukraine after a peace agreement. Thousands of European soldiers will be deployed in the country as a “reassurance” force, according to the plan discussed on Thursday in Paris.
But the Europeans are asking Trump for two things: that he commit, like them, to a “solidarity clause” with Ukraine in the event of further Russian aggression; and that he refuse any curbs on the size of Ukraine’s military in the peace deal, which Russia is demanding.
Everything is connected, and Trump knows this well, giving nothing away for free.
Trump suggested on Wednesday that if Putin persists in his refusal to meet Zelensky without conditions, “you’ll see things happen,” without giving further details. The Europeans hope that this means tougher sanctions against Moscow and increased arms deliveries to Ukraine.
The drawbacks of this hope for U.S. assistance are that Europe would increase, rather than reduce, its dependence on a United States that is forcing its hand on trade issues and seeking to dictate its digital policy. Everything is connected, and Trump knows this well, giving nothing away for free. This is the trap of Europe’s weakness, and it is not about to disappear.
