-Analysis-
PARIS — Ten days after the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, and one week after the emergency White House meeting between European leaders and the U.S. president, the excitement has died down. What happened to the diplomatic frenzy to open ceasefire negotiations, or even an end to more than three years of war in Ukraine? Virtually nothing.
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In an interview Sunday with the U.S. television network NBC, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed that no meeting was planned between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, contrary to Donald Trump’s stated hopes. The relationship between Russia and Ukraine remains as distant and irreconcilable as ever.
On Friday, Trump let his frustration show, as he had seemingly already pictured himself winning the Nobel Peace Prize: “I’m not happy about it, and I’m not happy about anything having to do with that war,” the U.S. president declared in his characteristic style.
Another deadline for a president who continues to procrastinate.
Trump added that he was giving himself two weeks to decide who was to blame for the current impasse, yet another deadline for a president who continues to procrastinate.
Why this impasse? First, because expectations were unrealistic. The conditions for negotiation never truly existed, if for no other reason than the concessions that Trump made to Vladimir Putin before discussions even began.
Putin’s preconditions
The Kremlin leader had no reason to lift his preconditions, and he even added one that makes the rest of the process difficult: He is demanding that Russia be among the countries that will guarantee Ukraine’s security.
It was to be expected: Moscow is demanding the right to veto any intervention by Ukraine’s security guarantors in the event of a violation of the peace agreements. This condition is in addition to its refusal to allow European troops to be stationed in Ukraine as part of the security guarantees.
The other reason for the impasse is the U.S. attitude: The Wall Street Journal revealed Sunday that for weeks, the Pentagon has been preventing Ukraine from using U.S.-made missiles for strikes deep inside Russia — even at a time when Moscow is stepping up its strikes against Ukrainian cities.
Clarity and courage
There are two unanswered questions at this stage: Does Donald Trump want to and can he salvage his attempt at leading peace negotiation? And if so, is he prepared to pay the price by ending his indulgence of Putin?
Trump’s position is decisive
When he claims that in two weeks he will have decided who is responsible, will he have the clarity, courage, and perhaps audacity to say that it is Putin, whose conditions rule out any compromise? Or will he remain receptive to the Kremlin’s rhetoric, which places the blame on the Europeans?
Trump’s position is indeed decisive. He holds the key to economic sanctions against Russia, which he is currently refusing to activate; he also possesses the weapons that Ukraine needs.
In the meantime, Ukrainians, who just celebrated the 34th anniversary of their independence, will continue to live by the rhythm of the warning sirens of incoming Russian missiles.
