— Analysis —
PARIS — On the eve of his tour of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Donald Trump achieved a minor miracle: he secured the release of Edan Alexander, the only living hostage of U.S. nationality still in the hands of Hamas in Gaza. The young man was freed Monday and reunited with his parents from New Jersey.
This should be a clear point of consensus, except for the fact that the Americans have negotiated directly with Hamas, the organization Israel wants to eradicate — and that doesn’t exactly please Benjamin Netanyahu.
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Last week, in the same scenario, the United States negotiated a ceasefire with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who agreed to no longer target merchant ships in the Red Sea. But Israel later found out that the agreement leaves the Houthis free to continue targeting Israeli territory.
So as Donald Trump lands in the Gulf, his eyes shining with the billions of dollars worth of contracts he’s about to seal, Israel is worried — even “ panicking,” according to some Israeli commentators. Netanyahu thought he had the strongest ally on earth in the White House, but he’s discovering at his own expense that Trump will always put his own interests first.
Allies and interests
The American president remains solidly on Israel’s side, as he has shown for almost four months now; but when he has to choose between an ally and his own interests, the choice is pretty clear-cut.
His current Middle East trip is likely to illustrate that point. Until recently, Trump has sought to bring his two main friends in the region, Saudi Arabia and Israel, closer together. The Wahhabi kingdom sat out the Abraham Accords, which established diplomatic relations between several Arab countries and Israel during Trump’s first term.
Until a few months ago, it did not rule out the idea of opening formal relations with Israel; but today, with the tragedy in Gaza, and the announced reoccupation of the territory, this is no longer possible. Even Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has to take his public’s opinion into account.
The Israelis have thus been informed that a civil nuclear agreement is likely to be signed during the visit, without the precondition of Israel’s agreement as had been planned. This is a significant setback.
The Iran question
Iran is the major bone of contention. Netanyahu was taken by surprise in the Oval Office three months ago when Donald Trump announced nuclear negotiations with Iran, while Israel continues to advocate military action.
“It’s the best time to destroy the Iranian nuclear complex,” Israeli officials were saying again Monday.
Not only are the U.S. and Iran in their fourth round of negotiations — with no breakthrough so far — but the Gulf states that Trump is visiting have become supporters of a negotiated solution where they were once fiercely anti-Iranian.
They will not plead the strong-arm approach with the U.S. president, fearing it could set the region ablaze. The Israelis have actually taken note that Mike Waltz, the now former White House National Security Advisor, was sacked for discussing military plans against Iran with Israel.
Relations between Israel and the American administration are still fundamentally on good terms. But Netanyahu is learning a lesson that goes for all of America’s allies: Trump isn’t “pro” or “anti” anyone else, he’s just…pro-Trump.
