Could A Palestinian State Be Born In September? Trump’s In A Corner Either Way

-Analysis-

PARIS – Something’s happening. Behind the scenes of Western diplomacy, a discreet but increasingly decisive front is stirring. Following Norway, Ireland, and Spain, France, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia have now joined the wave of those calling for the establishment of a Palestinian state. 

We are now weeks away from September’s United Nations General Assembly were a vote will be on the agenda to formally recognize the State of Palestine. They’ve announced it. And it looks like they’ll actually do it. But why now? And where will it lead?

The question is less rhetorical than it might seem. Why did these countries, pillars of the Atlantic order, decide to upset a balance they helped maintain for decades? The answer, perhaps, lies not only in the tragedy of Gaza, nor in the desire (however sincere) to restore a modicum of dignity to the Palestinians.

No, there’s an even bigger game at play here. A game being played on the table between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump. And the recognition of the State of Palestine becomes, in this scenario, not so much a goal as a lever — a way to force Trump, now back in the White House for the second time, to take a stand.

Key players

Let’s look at some of the key players: Macron, Starmer, Carney: Behind the signatures are political and national interests.

Let’s start with France. President Emmanuel Macron needs to regain credibility, both domestically and internationally. The protests against pension reform, the rapidly growing far-right vote, and widespread discontent across France: All of this is pushing him to seek a cause that will give moral meaning to his mandate. Palestine, today a global symbol of injustice, becomes that cause.

Then there’s Keir Starmer, the new British prime minister. After the troubled Boris Johnson era and the end of Conservative rule, Starmer must restore Labour’s spirit and prevent Jeremy Corbyn’s new party from stealing its MPs from the left. Therefore, he can no longer ignore the Palestinian issue, especially now that significant segments of his base are openly demanding it. Of course, recognition will be “conditional,” as Downing Street has already let slip: security for Israel, democratic reforms for the Palestinian Authority, and, above all, the removal of Hamas from all political power in the future Palestinian government. But the political signal will be clear.

Finally, Canada. Mark Carney has succeeded Justin Trudeau as prime minister, having presented himself as a pragmatic and progressive leader. But he is also the most exposed to U.S. retaliation. Trump has reportedly already threatened new tariffs on Canadian steel and cars if Ottawa recognizes Palestine. Yet, the Canadian government seems willing to move forward.

What will Trump do?

At the center of it all, however, remains a very different leader: Benjamin Netanyahu. Isolated, arrogant, and resistant to any offer of compromise, not even the joint diplomatic offensive of Egypt, Qatar, and the United States has managed to make him bend. 

And here’s where Trump comes in. He has a very strong personal and ideological relationship with Netanyahu. But he, the 2025 version of Trump, is also under pressure. Within his own party, among moderate Republicans, unease is growing. Within the military and diplomatic establishment, discontent is palpable. And so, the recognition of Palestine by six Western democracies aims precisely at that: to force Trump to choose. Either he remains committed to Netanyahu and risks global isolation, or he imposes a truce on his ally. Perhaps not out of conviction, but out of convenience.

Let’s be clear: a Palestinian state will not truly emerge in September. The conditions are not there. There is no cohesive territory, there is no single government, there is no true economic or military independence. But formal recognition, voted on by countries with a voice in the Security Council and weight in the international arena, would change the picture.

Because it would give the Palestinians, and especially the Palestinian National Authority and its perennially weak leader Mahmoud Abbas, new political legitimacy. And it would force Israel to emerge from the bubble of diplomatic impunity in which it has taken refuge.

No more turning a blind eye

The climate has changed in Europe too. The images from Gaza, protests at Western universities, the ceasefire movements: everything has had an impact. Macron can’t ignore the street protests. Starmer can’t ignore the young, progressive vote. Carney must hold together an increasingly polarized Canada. And behind the rhetoric of “two peoples, two states,” there is a real attempt, for once, to undermine the blockade of silence.

Recognition also serves this purpose: to say that something is moving. That we can no longer pretend that Palestine is just an “issue.” It is a people. It is an identity. It is also a responsibility.

September will amount to a symbolic transition. But symbols matter in diplomacy. They may not immediately change the reality on the ground, but they can change the language with which that reality is told.

And in times like these, when truth is manipulated, and justice is used as a weapon, even simply changing the language can have powerful political consequences.