Netanyahu’s Big Bet To Remake The Middle East Looks To Be Winning — But Is It?

-Analysis-

Benjamin Netanyahu wants to show the whole world that he is winning the war for the Middle East.

At first glance as we look back over the 20 months of conflict that erupted after the October 7 massacre, it would seem so. The Jewish state has decapitated the entire political and military leadership of Hamas and killed two-thirds of its fighters. It has done the same to Hezbollah, and has destroyed much, perhaps more than 80%, of the Lebanese Shiite militia’s arsenal. Netanyahu can also share in the credit for the toppling the pro-Iranian regime in Syria, having cut off the Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut highway, and kept at bay the Houthis in Yemen, who have never been able to seriously damage Israeli infrastructure with their missiles and have suffered very effective response strikes.

Yet beneath the surface, the situation is more complex. Although exhausted, Hamas remains in control of Gaza’s main urban centers, or rather their ruins. It still holds Israeli hostages, and can count on a considerable number of militiamen. Hezbollah has repositioned itself politically, has increased its consensus in the recent municipal elections in Lebanon, has not been excluded from the government. At the same time, it has begun to replenish its military reserves, and has withdrawn in an orderly fashion from Syria.

Damascus in doubt

A new power center is in control in Damascus, emanating from jihadist groups, the hard core of the forces that led 12 years of guerrilla warfare against Bashar al-Assad. Behind the facade and the propaganda, the ideology has remained the same.

The new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has opened channels of communication with Israel, especially for anti-Iran purposes. But Jerusalem does not trust the Syrian leader, and continues to conduct warning strikes. Al-Sharaa is thus also talking to the Russians, in negotiations to keep at least one of their air bases. The Americans have instead withdrawn more than half of their forces present in the northeast of Syria, leaving room for Turkey to penetrate. 

You see? We will not abandon the Palestinians to their fate

With the end of the U.S. presence, the Talibanization of Syria will move even faster, while in Kabul, let us not forget, reign the same men who once gave asylum and protection to Osama bin Laden.

Arab ambiguities

Elsewhere, Israel has to deal with the ambiguities of the Arab states allied with the West. Hostility from the people toward the Jewish state runs deeper than it has in 80 years. Governments must take this into account.

Saudi Arabia has gone from being on the verge of joining the Abraham Accords to establish official diplomatic relations with Israel to helping to lead calls for the immediate recognition of a Palestinian state. It’s another clear message to Saudi citizens, or subjects if you like, from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman: “You see? We will not abandon the Palestinians to their fate”

War with Iran would reverse the perspective. Israel can return to being the country attacked by the “forces of evil.”

For the first time, we also see important European countries, such as Spain and Britain, talking about sanctions against Israel, about stopping military supplies. Netanyahu found himself in a corner, with the risk of being overwhelmed by a diplomatic avalanche, in addition to the cracks in his majority at home. 

Thus an open and prolonged war with Iran would reverse the perspective. Israel can return to being the country attacked by the “forces of evil”, as in the first weeks after October 7, and international solidarity, perhaps, would shift. In addition, the Israeli Prime Minister has demonstrated that he can also decapitate the Iranian leadership at will, and that he is still the dominant power in the skies in the region.

Only the scale of Tehran’s response, and its actual ability to withstand the shock, will tell us whether King Bibi’s calculation was correct.