-Analysis-
PARIS – Until now, France had appeared hesitant on the question of a Palestinian state — active on the humanitarian front, wavering politically. But that caution has faded in the face of increasingly hardline stances: Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to resume the war in Gaza and enforce a blockade on aid for over a month, and Donald Trump’s outlandish proposal to empty Gaza of its Palestinian population.
After two days in Egypt and a visit near the Gaza border to meet with wounded Palestinians, French President Emmanuel Macron took a major step forward Wednesday. In an interview on the French television program C à vous, he stated that France could recognize the State of Palestine as early as June — a move that would make it the most prominent Western nation to take that leap.
It’s still conditional, but it’s a first. The State of Palestine is, of course, largely symbolic — a state in name more than actual authority over its own territory. But the move is supremely political. Recognizing this state is a clear stance against the erasure of the Palestinian people; it’s about favoring a political solution over the ongoing redrawing of the region’s map through war, as has been the case for the past 18 months.
Macron’s Political Shift
This June, France will co-host a conference on Palestine at the United Nations headquarters in New York, alongside Saudi Arabia. On that occasion, Macron said a “movement of mutual recognition” could be finalized: the official recognition of the State of Palestine by several countries — including France — on one side, and recognition of Israel by countries that have yet to do so, on the other. Among the latter is Saudi Arabia, which has not signed the Abraham Accords — the agreements through which some of its Gulf neighbors and Morocco have formally recognized Israel.
The president didn’t elaborate further, leaving open the possibility that this diplomatic initiative may ultimately fall through. Still, he went far enough in his statement that it would be difficult for him to walk it back come June.
The question had already come up a year ago, when Spain, Ireland and Norway decided together to recognize Palestine. At the time, Emmanuel Macron said France would do so “at an appropriate moment.” Several voices called on France to follow suit — including his former foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, and even Israeli voices like former ambassador to France Élie Barnavi. But the effort went nowhere.
France’s weight on Middle East diplomacy
What’s pushing Emmanuel Macron to act now? A shift in context. With Donald Trump’s return to the scene, Netanyahu once again has an ally in Washington — one who, like him, opposes the two-state solution. On top of that, the all-out war waged since the collapse of the ceasefire makes silence feel like complicity.
It’s a revival of France’s “Arab policy”
On Tuesday, the Lebanese French-language newspaper L’Orient-Le Jour headlined, “Macron positions himself as the West’s best ally to Arab countries.” This is a new development, a kind of revival of France’s “Arab policy” rooted in the epoch of President Charles De Gaulle’s autonomous foreign policy.
France is playing a balancing act, opposing Hamas on one side and Netanyahu on the other. This approach serves as a small disruption in the Israeli government’s efforts to eradicate Palestinian national aspirations.
It’s likely that by June, many will try to dissuade Macron from crossing the Rubicon: he holds in his hands the power to change the diplomatic game.
