-Analysis-
BUENOS AIRES — At times, Argentina and Brazil seem to be at the cold top of a mountain; the presidents greet each other with frosty formality and nothing happens, just a handshake. Yet further down the mountainside, on the plains, things are flowing a little more smoothly.
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So, we may ask ourselves: Are the two countries politically connected, or are we waiting for people who share our own ideas to take power, before we can be brothers? Are we waiting for a new opportunity that will only come when our ideological brethren are in power next door? We are mirrors of each other — but is it a distorting mirror? Let’s see.
Argentina has defined its foreign policy primarily with the United States and Israel. But with 193 countries in the international system, who takes care of the rest? There is a professional body that must fill this gap, which is only possible with efforts that might, paradoxically, prompt one’s dismissal for not sharing the ideology in power.
With Brazil, we’ve had eight years of opposing governments. And the reality is that politics or politicians have been unable to overcome the situation — despite the efforts of diplomats from both countries who, with their skills, are have managed to achieve continuity until the situation stabilizes, policies are clarified and joint policies agreed on and promoted.
Negotiation channel
Our government moved its consul in São Paulo to Buenos Aires to “take charge” of the Foreign Ministry (in recession). In this endeavor it could count on very few diplomats trained at the ISEN (the foreign ministry’s training institute) in good practices and knowledge of international politics.
We share Mercosur (even as we keep threatening to leave it), but Argentina is proposing a list of exceptions to Mercosur partners so it can reach an agreement with the United States. Washington meanwhile has put 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports to the United States.
The pressure being exerted on Brazil’s socialist government and the indulgence shown to Argentina are clearly evident.
A negotiation channel will likely be opened. Our country is facing 10% tariffs, which indicates clear political support from the Republicans in its negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. Brazil on the other hand is a member of BRICS (China’s initiative with other countries of the Global South), which has a policy of gradually replacing the dollar in international transactions.
Threat of sanctions
The United States has reacted harshly to this project, threatening it with sanctions down the line. The tariff hike announced for Brazil included, to the surprise of many, a judicial element: the defense of Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro, with whom U.S. President Donald Trump sympathizes. The U.S. administration correspondingly canceled the visas of certain members of the Brazilian Supreme Court.
The pressure being exerted on Brazil’s socialist government, and the indulgence shown to Argentina, which decided not to join BRICS, are clearly evident.
Yet, despite all that, Brazil took charge of Argentina’s embassy in Venezuela when Caracas expelled the Argentine diplomats and with Venezuelan opponents taking refuge there. In Argentina’s lawsuit against the YPF oil firm in New York, Brazil appeared as Argentina’s amicus curiae, which is to voluntarily offer opinions on some aspect of the lawsuit. We share a 1,263-kilometer border with Brazil, and are united by land and water geography.
Things in common
Both countries have their interests as well as common interests. For many years, statesmen from both nations have examined the future of our relationship, and time has yielded the results we have today. Some of them are criticized in both countries, while others are extremely positive. We only need recall the military uprisings of Brazil in 1964 and Argentina in 1966, with juntas promulgating declarations citing very similar if not almost identical, revolutionary objectives.
Today, we have the Democratic Charter in common and the prospects of a changing world, in which both countries have a comparative advantage within the global scenario. As large-scale food suppliers, we are well-placed as key players in the emerging issue of global food security.
The similarities outnumber the differences.
We also have energy and mineral resources within an area of energy security. Between Patagonia and the Amazon lies one of the world’s most important natural reserves. We also have the ABACC or Brazilian-Argentine Agency for the Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials. There is active cooperation in the realm of defense, we are in a region of peace, and there is bilateral coordination in response to the scourge of organized crime (like the PCC cartel and others) in areas where drug trafficking is active.
The similarities outnumber the differences, even if we can’t see the forest for the trees. All that is needed is political will, realism and strategic pluralism.
