-Analysis-

PARIS — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated loudly and clearly that there will be retaliation. He plans to take targeted measures against the countries that recognized the State of Palestine on Monday, including France, along with political moves designed to make this hypothetical Palestinian state, to which he is fiercely opposed, even more impossible.

For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.

The most serious measure being considered is the annexation of all or part of the West Bank. This would be a radical shift in the geopolitical situation, since this territory, occupied since the Six-Day War in June 1967, would now be incorporated into the State of Israel, firmly closing the door to a Palestinian state.

This, however, is easier said than done. Despite having toyed with the idea for years, the Israeli government has always refrained from crossing the Rubicon. Even today, under pressure and dramatization from the far-right wing of the ruling coalition, Netanyahu is still hesitating.

Closing the door on a Palestinian state

The prime minister has said he will announce his decision after his meeting with Donald Trump in Washington on Friday. He is waiting for a green light — or a veto — from the U.S. president: Israel will not move forward without American “cover.”

The reason is well known: the Arab Gulf countries, particularly the United Arab Emirates, which recognized Israel under the Abraham Accords, have warned that annexing the West Bank is a “red line” for them. They reaffirmed this to the Americans following the Israeli raid against Hamas in Qatar, which shook the region.

The question of annexation shouldn’t distract from the reality already taking shape.

Trump will meet this week with representatives from all Arab countries and Turkey at the UN General Assembly in New York. These meetings will allow him to gauge whether these nations — especially Gulf states with which he has close business ties — are genuinely opposed to annexation.

It will be a test of whether pragmatism keeps the U.S. president from going too far, or ideology drives him to fully back Netanyahu’s aggressive move.

If international law still holds any weight, annexing the West Bank would be a blatant violation. The territory is occupied under Security Council Resolution 242, which calls for Israel’s withdrawal. Yet decades of colonization have ignored this mandate, and annexation would be the next step in that ongoing disregard.

The consequences are twofold. First, Israel would face even more sanctions, particularly from Europe. Second, it would suddenly have 3 million Palestinians within its borders instead of in occupied territories — raising urgent questions about their status and bringing the specter of apartheid uncomfortably close.

The question of annexation is critical, but it shouldn’t distract from the reality already taking shape. These actions aim to block the creation of a Palestinian state and are reinforced by recent settlement plans, including the “E1” project, which would split the West Bank in two. How, then, can the fate of the Palestinian people avoid becoming the world’s eternal, unsolvable problem, as French President Emmanuel Macron warned in his UN speech?

This is the key challenge for supporters of the two-state solution, who must turn the powerful symbolism of their campaign in New York into action against the harsh reality on the ground.

In partnership with
FRANCE INTER
View article in original language
Translated and Adapted by: