To Free Itself From Trump’s Grip, Europe Needs New Allies

-OpEd-

BERLIN — Just when it seemed that months of wrangling had finally produced clarity, uncertainty has resurfaced. The exact nature of the recent “agreement” between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. President Donald Trump is once again in dispute. The EU has announced its intention to purchase large quantities of American weapons and liquefied natural gas, but insists this should be understood as a non-binding declaration of intent. The White House, on the other hand, considers it a legally binding commitment.

So, the deal comes before the deal. But what does “deal” even mean here? This agreement, if you can call it that, cannot be justified by any economic theory, not even by a halfway coherent economic ideology. Because even if you reject free trade and believe tariffs make sense in principle, how do you explain 15% on cars, 50% on steel and aluminum, and 0% on aircraft parts?

There is only one explanation for what happened in Scotland: Donald Trump. The president of the United States is using the vast, unchecked power of his office to push through whatever he sees fit. Even when, as in this case, it ends up harming his own country, because European companies will likely pass on the extra costs of the tariffs to American consumers through higher prices.

Trump wants followers, not partners

The truly devastating realization right now is that it’s working. Trump knows the Europeans can’t get very far without American backing, not in Ukraine and not elsewhere. That knowledge underpins the almost imperial posture he has adopted in this second term. Trump is not interested in balancing the interests of his partners. What he wants is loyalty.

This is the weak spot in the criticism of how the Commission and European governments have conducted the negotiations. The deal may amount to “submission,” as French Prime Minister François Bayrou put it, but what was the alternative? A 30% tariff and a full-blown economic crisis in Europe? Who would have taken responsibility for that? America’s dominance has structural roots that won’t be undone quickly.

It all stems from a postwar order in which the United States took the lead from the start. Trump may pursue that role more aggressively than his predecessors, but it’s baked into the logic of the system. To use an economic analogy: if the U.S. were a corporation, it would have to be broken up due to its dominant market position.

A historical bind

That, of course, is not going to happen. And while calls for Europeans to invest more in their own security are entirely justified, the fact that they haven’t done so until now is part of a transatlantic division of labor that worked well for both sides for a long time. It will take years before the EU can match the U.S. militarily and technologically. And only if everything goes smoothly, which at the moment seems far from likely.

If the Europeans really want to push back against the Americans, they need allies.

There is no painless way out of this historical bind. But one thing is clear: As long as Trump is in office, he won’t let up, especially with the ongoing dispute over the regulation of digital giants still unresolved. The German government wants to impose a tax on them, despite American opposition. Or at least that’s what German Culture Minister Wolfram Weimer has said. So, should Weimer fly to Washington and challenge the U.S. president face to face in the White House? That would make for great television, as Trump might say, but terrible politics.

If the Europeans really want to push back against the Americans, they need allies. They would have to build an alliance of countries that share an interest in a multilateral trade order: Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Japan, Argentina, and, despite all the human rights and geopolitical issues involved in such a move, China. That would amount to admitting that the transatlantic partnership, at least in trade matters, no longer exists.