-Analysis-
PARIS — What a strange way to negotiate peace! Act 1: On Friday, Washington releases a 28-point plan that incorporates Russia’s main demands and resembles a Ukrainian capitulation. The plan was drawn up without consulting either Ukraine or its European allies. The atmosphere is so grim that Volodymyr Zelensky declares that he has a choice between losing his dignity or the support of his main ally.
Act 2: Americans, Ukrainians and Europeans meet in Geneva on Sunday to discuss the matter. The Europeans make a counterproposal, and the Ukrainians negotiate tooth and nail. By the end of the day, the tone is more positive, with the White House stating that any agreement must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty.
This is the third time in a few months that the U.S. administration has replayed this scene: an attempt to reach an agreement with Vladimir Putin at any cost, before backing down because the conditions are unacceptable, including for some Republicans in Washington.
The agreement that Ukraine and its European allies are trying to reach is undoubtedly unacceptable to Putin. We will therefore know in the coming days whether, once again, the rebalancing of the U.S. position will lead to the failure of this new round of diplomacy.
Kremlin line
But the method is still astonishing. The initial plan echoed the Kremlin’s rhetoric so closely that some Republican lawmakers in Washington wondered if it had been written in Russian and then translated into English by artificial intelligence. And Sunday morning, Donald Trump tweeted, in capital letters as he does when he is unhappy, that Ukrainian leaders were “ungrateful” for American aid.
The alternative 24-point European proposal attempts to modify the American text on the issue of territorial concessions demanded of Ukraine and on security guarantees, which are the only things likely to prevent Putin from returning to the battlefield later. The Europeans in the “Coalition of the Willing” had drawn up a plan that would see European troops stationed in Ukraine to guarantee a ceasefire, but Russia does not want this.
The big lesson for Europeans is still the same: they can no longer rely on their historic alliance with the United States.
In the worst-case scenario, if they blame Ukraine, as Trump has threatened, the United States, will cease its military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, leaving it to its sad fate, with Europe unable to replace them.
Presidential moods
But the initial plan is so shaky that it could just as easily collapse in a matter of days if the Americans accept concessions that Moscow refuses. Such is the art of negotiation in the Trump era, with secret Washington-Moscow agendas, the president’s moods on social media, and a compass that does not always point north.
The big lesson for Europeans is still the same: they know they can no longer rely on their historic alliance with the United States, and must turn the strategic awakening they’ve been talking about since the invasion of Ukraine into action.
But the reality is that we are still bound hand and foot to an American protector — who is also, at times, our adversary.