NATO Is Hereby Activated — How It Could Turn The Tide In Ukraine War

Updated April 7, 2024 at 12:00 p.m.*

BERLIN — A big bang from NATO: Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg wants to provide significantly more support to Ukraine in its defense campaign against Russia and put together a gigantic aid package.

The plans are barely three weeks old and have been the subject of intense internal debate ever since. They were presented at a two-day meeting this past week of NATO foreign ministers. The aim is to adopt the new measures at the NATO anniversary summit that will mark the alliance’s 75th anniversary in Washington in early July.

Stoltenberg’s plan for Ukraine includes three founding pillars.

First, NATO would take the lead in coordinating arms assistance for Ukraine in the future. The so-called Ramstein format, the contact group on the defense of Ukraine, which involves around 50 nations, has so far been led by the U.S. government.

Stoltenberg has internally justified the planned measure with the provisional name “NATO Mission for Ukraine”: a committee that is only temporary in nature and not fixed would become a permanent NATO format that will take care of arms assistance for Kyiv in the long term.

Behind this is also the fear that, were Donald Trump to win the U.S. presidency in 2025, he could immediately end Washington’s current coordination function.

At the end of this week’s foreign minister summit in Brussels, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington was working toward Ukraine becoming a member of NATO

Setting up a huge aid fund

Germany has so far remained neutral on the coordination issue and wants to wait and see what the plans will ultimately look like. One point is particularly important to Berlin: the German government wants, at all costs, to keep the organization from playing its own role in the Ukraine war and, in the worst case, is even being drawn into the conflict.

Closely linked to that is a second problem: would NATO cross what has so far been considered a red line if it coordinates the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine in future? Up to now, the alliance has deliberately only supplied non-lethal weapons, such as helmets or jammers.

Under the second pillar, NATO would play a key role in coordinating training for Ukrainian soldiers in future. One advantage would be no unnecessary duplication of training in individual countries and common training priorities could be established. The problem is that there could be overlap with the EU training program for Ukrainian soldiers.

Third point in the plan is for NATO to set up a mega aid fund totaling 100 billion euros. This will be used to finance military equipment for the Ukrainian armed forces over the next five years. The payments into the new special fund are to be made in addition to regular defense spending amounting to at least 2% of gross domestic product. The 32 member states are to contribute in proportion to their weight and size.

The advantage of this idea is that there would be fixed payments that Ukraine could count on over the next five years. So far, the generation of financial aid has been rather sluggish. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has already complained about this several times.

Another advantage would be that each country would have to make aid payments according to a fixed formula, which already exists and applies to the financing of the NATO budget, and could therefore no longer duck out — like Italy, Spain or France, for example.

Stoltenberg’s new plan would be a quantum leap compared to NATO’s current involvement.

But it is still unclear whether or not a country’s previous support payments will be taken into account when calculating the new financial aid. Berlin is likely to push for this, as is Washington. However, if both countries receive a discount — which would then also apply to other countries that have previously provided above-average financial aid to Kyiv — this could ultimately lead to significantly fewer payments into the new fund than the originally planned 100 billion euros.

Another problem is: NATO and the EU must be careful that both organizations do not get into a funding race for Ukraine — and hinder each other in the process. The EU has its own financial pot for military aid, the so-called European Peace Facility.

‘Hostile act’ for Russia?

All in all, it can be said that Stoltenberg’s new Ukraine plan would be a quantum leap compared to NATO’s current involvement in the Ukraine war. If the plan is implemented, Moscow is likely to see this as a “hostile act” and an excuse for further escalation with the West. But would that be a bad thing?

The relationship is already shattered, with both sides no longer even able to agree on a common line in the fight against international terrorism — unlike before the war in Ukraine. Just a few weeks ago, Moscow rejected an offer from Washington to cooperate in the fight against ISIS-K, an Afghan offshoot of the so-called Islamic State, which is believed to be responsible for the deaths of over 130 people in an attack on a concert hall in Moscow.

If the new plans from Brussels are approved at the NATO summit in Washington, arms aid for Ukraine would be put on a secure footing in the long term and Kyiv would have more planning security. But it remains unclear whether this will be enough to get Ukraine back on the offensive in the war against Russia.

In addition, the Stoltenberg plan is likely to be seen by Kyiv as a further step towards NATO membership. This could be all the more important because the NATO summit in Washington won’t come with an invitation to Kyiv to join the alliance nor will it be the time when the accession process begins.

*This article was originally published April 4, updated April 7 with Blinken comments about Ukraine joining NATO, as well as enriched media.