When the world gets closer.

We help you see farther.

Sign up to our expressly international daily newsletter.

Geopolitics

The Stakes Of A Ukrainian-Russian Drone Arms Race

A recent unmanned attack could heighten tensions in the conflict zone and have broader geopolitical consequences.

The Stakes Of A Ukrainian-Russian Drone Arms Race

Police officers patrolling Moscow's Red Square

Anna Akage

Last week Vladimir Putin complained that even without accepting Kyiv into its ranks, NATO could place missiles in Ukraine near Russia's borders. Russian media was quick to help prove Putin's point, writing about Washington's current military aid to Kyiv, Ukraine's talks with London on obtaining British Brimstone missiles and Turkish drones in Donbas, which has been a disputed site of conflict since 2014.

Just days later, the Ukrainian military for the first time used the Turkish Bayraktar TB-2 drone in Donbas. The incident Tuesday could seriously change the situation in the conflict zone and have consequences for both Russian-Ukrainian and Russian-Turkish relations.

Turkey enters the conflict 

Russian daily Kommersantwrites that the main threat now is the military friendship between Ukraine and Turkey. "We have a really special and good relationship with Turkey, but in this case, unfortunately, our fears are confirmed that the supply of such weapons to the Ukrainian military could potentially destabilize the situation on the line of contact," says Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian president.

Information about the use of the drone appeared almost simultaneously with the report that the Ukrainian military occupied the village on the line of contact, which means a full-fledged aggravation of the conflict.

Natalia Nikonorova is the minister of foreign affairs of the Donetsk People's Republic, a self-proclaimed quasi-state in eastern Ukrainian. She tells Kommersant that the use of unmanned aerial vehicles — whatever their production and whatever country supplied them to Ukrainian armed forces — was absolutely unacceptable, adding they were an acute factor in destabilizing the situation.

Representatives of Germany, which is involved in resolving the violence in eastern Ukraine, say that drones "are used by both sides of the conflict."

A Russian drone carrying a package

Ogorodnik Andrei/TASS/ZUMA

A technological arms race?

Russian expert Vasily Kashin believes that the use of drones in Ukraine "will necessitate a radical strengthening of the air defenses of both Ukraine and the Donetsk People's Republic. The balance will require either radical rearmament of the republic's air defense forces or direct participation in their air defense against the Russian armed forces."

But the evidence on the ground might be more mixed: The Ukrainian magazine Livy Bereg took a closer look at the number of Russian drones. Originally, Russia was far ahead of Ukraine in military technological progress. Almost simultaneously, the two countries purchased a tactical drone in Israel. However, while Ukrainian procurement was gathering dust in warehouses, the Russians had already established production by 2011. But then Moscow unexpectedly fell behind.

New information about Russia's unmanned aerial vehicles appeared during the forum "Army-2021." In particular, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that by the end of 2021 the number of drones in the Russian army will exceed 2,000 units. It is unlikely that Shoigu's statement is anything but banal propaganda.

What is known for sure is that Russian drones designed or developed for the military are man-operated and do not contain elements of artificial intelligence. Despite having publicly announced ambitious plans to create strike drones, Russia has not completed them. Thus, in December 2020, Putin ordered the Russian Defense Ministry to speed up work on the Hunter drone, which was to become the main opponent to the Ukrainian drone Bayraktar TB2 of Turkish production. But in February 2021, Russia had to admit that flight tests for Hunter will not end before 2023 and its serial production will begin no earlier than 2024.

The drone competition is a reminder that even as peace talks between Ukraine and Russia continue to stall, the local arms race isn't slowing down.

You've reached your monthly limit of free articles.
To read the full article, please subscribe.
Get unlimited access. Support Worldcrunch's unique mission:
  • Exclusive coverage from the world's top sources, in English for the first time.
  • Insights from the widest range of perspectives, languages and countries
  • $2.90/month or $19.90/year. No hidden charges. Cancel anytime.
Already a subscriber? Log in

When the world gets closer, we help you see farther

Sign up to our expressly international daily newsletter!
Coronavirus

Will China's Zero COVID Ever End?

Too much has been put in to the state-sponsored truth that minimal spread of the virus is the at-all-cost objective. But if the Chinese economy continues to suffer, Xi Jinping may have no choice but to second guess himself.

COVID testing in Guiyang, China

Cfoto/DDP via ZUMA
Deng Yuwen

The tragic bus accident in Guiyang last month — in which 27 people being sent to quarantine were killed — was one of the worst examples of collateral damage since the COVID-19 pandemic began in China nearly three years ago. While the crash can ultimately be traced back to bad government policy, the local authorities did not register it as a Zero COVID related casualty. It was, for them, a simple traffic accident.

The officials in the southern Chinese province of Guizhou, of course, had no alternative. Drawing a link between the deadly crash and the strict policy of Zero COVID, touted by President Xi Jinping, would have revealed the absurdity of the government's choices.

Keep reading...Show less

When the world gets closer, we help you see farther

Sign up to our expressly international daily newsletter!
You've reached your monthly limit of free articles.
To read the full article, please subscribe.
Get unlimited access. Support Worldcrunch's unique mission:
  • Exclusive coverage from the world's top sources, in English for the first time.
  • Insights from the widest range of perspectives, languages and countries
  • $2.90/month or $19.90/year. No hidden charges. Cancel anytime.
Already a subscriber? Log in
THE LATEST
FOCUS
TRENDING TOPICS

Central to the tragic absurdity of this war is the question of language. Vladimir Putin has repeated that protecting ethnic Russians and the Russian-speaking populations of Ukraine was a driving motivation for his invasion.

Yet one month on, a quick look at the map shows that many of the worst-hit cities are those where Russian is the predominant language: Kharkiv, Odesa, Kherson.

Watch VideoShow less
MOST READ