The Foreign Policy Stakes Of French Elections Are Huge  — And Nobody Seems To Notice

-Analysis-

PARIS — Foreign policy issues will play only a very secondary role in the outcome of France’s snap legislative elections on June 30 and July 7. Yet it doesn’t mean there won’t be consequences: this is, after all, a moment when war is returning to Europe and may escalate in the Middle East — and the U.S. has its own crucial vote in November.

This also reflects the profound nature, if not the very essence, of the political forces at play.

The war in Ukraine reveals the ambiguities of both the far right and the far left. The war in Gaza reflects the excesses of the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party. When it comes to international affairs, rejecting extremes should be a matter of reason and ethics. Unfortunately, this is not the case.

The triptych of the economy, security and identity leaves all other considerations far behind. At a time when the legislative elections have almost become a referendum against French President Emmanuel Macron, if not a sanction vote against the elites, how could it be otherwise?

Appease Russia and weaken Europe

Yet, it’s as if the far right (despite its recent contortions) and the far left (right in its boots) wanted to appease Russia and weaken Europe. And as if the far left, through the Gaza war, wanted to rally voters of Maghreb or African origin to its cause.

The far-right National Rally (RN)’s bet is both more controlled in form and even more dangerous in substance, because it can access power. Should we define it as extreme right-wing, hard right-wing, or as it likes to call itself, just right-wing?

The conversion of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party is too recent, and too opportunistic, to be taken seriously. We must continue to question the RN’s “weaknesses” toward President Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Do they reflect a form of French isolationism: “France first, France alone”? “Why should we take sides in a conflict that does not involve French interests”?

Ambiguity towards outcast

Or is another interpretation possible? Putin’s authoritarian Russia model appeals to (and even attracts) populist leaders, from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to the RN’s Le Pen. “Illiberal” democracy is a step toward the undermining of democracy. Doesn’t ignoring the cause of freedom in Ukraine show how little consideration we give to defending democracy in our own country?

At a time when the Russian and North Korean leaders seem to have become the world’s best friends, any form of ambiguity regarding these pariahs of international society is a concern. Le Pen has not yet clearly made her cultural revolution. She is not a French version of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. If she were, the likes of French MEP Thierry Mariani would have disappeared from her entourage.

On the war in Gaza, and on antisemitism, there is — on the face of it — no longer any ambiguity on the RN side. Le Pen’s strategy has been to erase all the sins of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. No more dubious puns, unwavering support for the cause of Israel and total commitment to the fight against antisemitism. This Copernican revolution has produced tangible results.

The Palestinian cause

A significant minority of the French Jewish community (up to 20%-25%) is preparing to vote for the far right. And this is to block the antisemitic excesses of the far left. The majority of French Jews will refrain from doing so. But not so much as Jews, as Republicans. Deep down, they know that if we open the doors of the Republic to the extremes, we jeopardize democracy, and ultimately respect for minorities.

If we move from the extreme right to the extreme left, we find the same lukewarm support for the Ukrainian cause. And the same assumed understanding of Putin’s Russia. But above all, we see a total commitment to the Palestinian cause. As if Oct. 7 was only the legitimate expression of a national liberation movement, as if Hamas were not a terrorist movement.

Strengthening the extremes

It’s as if Jewish people were the epitome of white people. Just as Israel, in the minds of some (especially in the Global South), has become the epitome of the West. Never mind history, never mind that Jews have been persecuted or discriminated against by the Western world.

Their collective success is proof of their guilt. By choosing candidates with controversial views, the far left has chosen to cultivate an electorate which, helped by the war in Gaza, no longer masks its antisemitism.

The strengthening of the extremes — which seems the most likely outcome of the legislative elections — will have a direct consequence. There will be less France in Europe and less Europe in the world.

A people who put themselves in danger

At a time when Eugène Delacroix’s painting Liberty Leading the People has just been restored at the Louvre Museum, it is reality, and not its representation, that is becoming problematic. Any republican who respects humanist and universalist values — and who possesses a minimum of awareness and historical knowledge — cannot choose between the masked racism of the far right and the more openly antisemitic statements of the far left.

The RN has been able to modernize its discourse, erasing its rough edges. Its relationship with truth and reality, whether geopolitical or economic, remains problematic. Is the RN no longer antisemitic? That may be so. But its practice, once it shares power in an unprecedented form of cohabitation between forces that do not share the same values, constitutes a major risk for democracy.

A people who feel they have tried everything, and who, driven by fear and disappointment, if not by anger, are ready to cross the Rubicon and ultimately hand over power to the RN, are a people who are putting themselves at danger.