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TOPIC: vladimir putin

FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

The Real Purpose Of The Drone Strikes Inside Russia? A Decoy For Ukraine's Counterattack

Putin is hesitant to mobilize troops for political reasons. And the Ukrainian military command is well aware that the key to a successful offensive lies in creating new front lines, where Russia will have to relocate troops from Ukraine and thus weaken the existing front.

This article was updated at 8 p.m. local time May 31 with reports of new strikes inside Russia

-Analysis-

On the night of May 30, military drones attacked the Russian capital. There were no casualties – just broken windows and minor damage to homes. Ukraine claims it had nothing to do with the attack, and it is instead the frenzied artificial intelligence of military machines that do not understand why they are sent to Kyiv.

While the Ukrainian president’s office jokes that someone in Russia has again been smoking somewhere they shouldn’t, analysts are placing bets on the real reasons for the Moscow strikes. Many believe that Kyiv's real military target can by no means be the capital of Russia itself: it is too far from the front and too well defended – and strikes on Russia, at least with Western weapons, run counter to Ukraine’s agreements with allies, who have said that their weapons cannot be used to attack inside Russia.

Eight apartment buildings, four homes, a school and two administrative buildings were damaged during the shelling in Shebekino, a village in the border region of Belgorod, its governor said, as the oblast increasingly becomes a hotbed of straying violence.

On Wednesday, new reports of a “massive” shelling attack inside Russia's borders that injured at least four people in Belgorod and a drone sparked a fire at an oil refinery further south.

If the goal is not directly military, maybe it is psychological: to scare the residents of the capital, who live in a parallel reality and have no idea how life feels for Ukrainian civilians. Forcing people to live with this reality could push the Kremlin to retreat, or at least make concessions and negotiate with Kyiv. If neither sanctions nor the elite could sober Vladimir Putin up, could angry Muscovites?

But neither Russia's military command nor its political leadership depends on the opinion of citizens. And there are enough special forces in Moscow to crush any mass protest.

Laying bare Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inability to guarantee his country's security, in front of Russia’s remaining international partners or among the country’s elites, is also an unlikely goal. The Russian army has already seen such embarrassing failures that a few drone strikes on the Kremlin can’t possibly change how Putin is seen as a leader, or Russia as a state. So why would Kyiv launch attacks on Moscow?

Let's go back to the date of the shelling: May 29 is Kyiv Day, a holiday in the Ukrainian capital. It was also the 16th attack on Kyiv in May alone, unprecedented in its scale, even compared to the winter months when Russia had still hoped to cut off Ukrainian electricity and leave Kyiv residents, or even the whole country, freezing in the dark.

The backdrop: the Ukrainian counter-offensive to liberate the occupied territories, which is in the works, if not already launched.

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After Belgorod: Does The Russian Opposition Have A Path To Push Out Putin?

The month of May has seen a brazen drone attack on the Kremlin and a major incursion by Russian rebels across the border war into the Russian region of Belgorod. Could this lead to Russians pushing Vladimir Putin out of power? Or all-out civil war?

-Analysis-

We may soon mark May 22 as the day the Ukrainian war added a Russian front to the military battle maps. Two far-right Russian units fighting on the side of Ukraine entered the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation, riding on tanks and quickly crossing the border to seize Russian military equipment and take over checkpoints.

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This was not the first raid, but it was by far the longest and most successful, before the units were eventually forced to pass back into Ukrainian territory. The Russian Defense Ministry’s delay in reacting and repelling the incursion demonstrated its inability to seal the border and protect its citizens.

The broader Russian opposition — both inside the country and in exile — are actively discussing the Belgorod events and trying to gauge how it will affect the situation in the country. Will such raids become a regular occurrence? Will they grow more ambitious, lasting longer and striking deeper inside Russian territory? Or are these the first flare-ups at the outset of a coming civil war? And, of course, what fate awaits Vladimir Putin?

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Goa Postcard: How Draft Dodgers And Pro-Putin Russians Both Landed On India's Scenic Coast

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, many Russians ordered to the front have fled to India’s scenic west coast. They enjoy sandy beaches, sun and a cheap life, but relations with pro-war Russians who have long settled there regularly disturb the peace.

MORJIM — From his terrace, in the shade of the coconut trees, Ivan* contemplates the Chapora river, which flows into the Arabian Sea just 100 or so meters away. Five months ago, this 42-year-old Muscovite set up home in Morjim, in the state of Goa, India.

He arrived in October, a few weeks after the mobilization decreed on Sept. 21 2022 by Vladimir Putin, when 300,000 fighting-age men were summoned to the army.

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Why Poland's Ruling Party Has Suddenly Turned On Ukraine — With The Wounds Of History

The Polish government has recently demanded official apologies from Kyiv (which is busy fighting off the Russian invasion) for historic war crimes committed by Ukrainian nationalists against ethnic Poles during World War II. The ruling PiS party is up to its old tricks of scapegoating for votes.

-Analysis-

WARSAW — This was no mistake, no slip-of-the tongue. In the midst of rising tensions between the otherwise close allies, Lukasz Jasina, the spokesman for the Polish Foreign Ministry was unequivocally demanding that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky issue a public apology to Poland for historic crimes in the Volhynia region. In that ugly chapter of World War II, Ukrainian nationalists killed up to 100,000 ethnic Poles, including many women and children, in what is widely considered an act of ethnic cleansing.

Jasina's statement, which appeared on May 19 in Onet.pl, Poland's largest online news platform, resulted in exactly what he wanted: a declaration that Poland has stopped unconditionally supporting the Ukrainian war effort, and a forecast that Polish-Ukrainian relations will emerge as a new issue ahead of this coming fall's national elections.

His statements also generated intrigue, especially since Jasina doesn’t belong to PiS, Poland’s conservative ruling party. Nevertheless, the statement was intentional — and has pushed Poland into a diplomatic frenzy, prompting a reaction from Vasyl Zvarych, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Poland.

This is exactly what PiS leaders wanted to happen.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Victoria Roshina

Crimea Is Expanding Private Army Militias, Modeled On The Wagner Group

Wagner-like military groups are being formed in Crimea. Are they preparing to fight the Ukrainian army? Or to evacuate the local oligarchs?

The Crimean peninsula is restless. The pro-Russian occupation authorities are increasingly reporting explosions and attacks by the Ukrainian army. Meanwhile, sources inside Kyiv's intelligence services are promising that Ukrainian troops will enter Crimea before the end of the year.

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The head of the occupation administration of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, insists that there is no panic, yet is actively building fortifications and planning for the possibility that the war arrives on the territory. This now includes the creation of private armies, which appear inspired to some degree by the Wagner Group, the Russian mercenary outfit now involved in combat in Ukraine.

Aksyonov has gathered two volunteer battalions, Tavrida and Livadia, which are currently located in the neighboring regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Russian propagandists have already dubbed the combat wing, Aksyonovites, closely associated with Russian Cossacks and security structures that participated in the peninsula's annexation in 2014.

The Tavrida battalion operates under the leadership of Anton Sirotkin, a Cossack military leader and member of the Vladimir Putin's United Russia Party.

Another top Tavrida leader, Vyacheslav Tokmakov, explained on Russian television that at the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion, Tavrida was in conflict with the regular army of the Russian Federation — and the Russian military realized that "it is better to leave (them) alone."

"We immediately set the conditions: gentlemen, you set us a task and a deadline. As for how, with what forces, let us decide," Tokmakov said about how his private army would work with Russia's regular army.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Pierre Haski

Can South Africa Be An Honest Broker For Peace In Ukraine?

After Beijing's dubious push to lead negotiations on settling the war in Ukraine, now it's South Africa's turn. But its "ambiguous" neutrality on the war — and reports of secret weapons sales to Russia — raise serious skepticism in Kyiv and the West.

-Analysis-

PARIS — New peace initiatives for Ukraine continue to be announced one after the other, without much success. China has just sent an envoy to Kyiv, who will continue on to Moscow and Paris soon after.

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Now, it's Africa's turn: a delegation of six African heads of state is expected soon to go to Kyiv and Moscow "to try to find a peaceful solution" to the conflict, according to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

When war is raging, all peace initiatives are welcome, of course. Still, questions remain about the true motivations behind these efforts.

China, which has an ideological alignment with Vladimir Putin's Russia, has significantly increased its purchases of Russian hydrocarbons, and took over a year to establish contact with Ukraine.

The same applies to the recently announced trip by the South African president. His country is at the center of a diplomatic storm over its relations with Russia, which raises serious questions. The peace initiative seems to come at the right time for South Africa to extricate from a diplomatic predicament.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Anna Akage

Is Lukashenko Sick? Putin Too? Why Ukraine Won't Be Waiting For Dictators To Die

A spate of speculation on the health of Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko follows similar reports about would-be Vladimir Putin illnesses. Such talk feeds the hope of the Russian opposition and many in the West. Ukrainians have a different agenda — and timetable.

-Analysis-

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko was not enjoying the parade.

Appearing in Moscow’s Red Square for the May 9 Victory Day celebration, the 68-year-old strongman looked quite ill, and wore a bandage on his arm.

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He missed the Kremlin breakfast and didn't take the walk with Vladimir Putin and other heads of state across the Square to the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, reaching it by electric car instead, reports independent Russian news outlet Agents.Media reports reports.

When he then missed the Belarus celebration of the Day of the State Flag, Emblem and Anthem, rumors started to circulate that Lukashenko might have a serious health problem.

And for nearly a week, he vanished.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Pierre Haski

"Grandpa Vlad" — Wagner Boss Prigozhin Is Now Mocking Putin Directly

Head of the Wagner mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin's furious videos have been aimed in the past at Putin's deputies and generals. Now, he's taking aim at the tsar himself.

-OpEd-

What exactly is Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, up to? This question has been on everyone's minds for months, but now he has truly crossed a line.

Prigozhin was already engaged in open conflict with top military brass and even the Russian Defense Minister. However, Tuesday, he launched a direct attack on Vladimir Putin himself, depicting him as a comical "grandfather" in a video meant to ridicule him. He specifically chose to do it on Victory Day, the day of the anniversary of Russia’s triumph over Nazism, just as Putin was preparing to preside over the parade on Red Square.

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In the video, Prigozhin theatrically portrays his ongoing conflict with Russian military authorities. Despite having no military background, the corpulent Prigozhin dresses in military fatigues and a bulletproof vest, with Kalashnikov magazines visibly strapped to his belly.

He narrates receiving a menacing letter from the Russian Ministry of Defense, threatening him with charges of "treason" if he were to withdraw his troops from Bakhmut, the Ukrainian city he has been striving to capture for weeks.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Victoria Roshchyna

Inside Moscow's Vile Scheme To Kidnap And "Russify" Ukrainian Children

In Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine, an estimated 19,000 children have been abducted and put in so-called "filtration camps," Soviet-era-like facilities where they are being "re-educated" in brutal conditions. Exclusive testimony from several victims who managed to escape.

KYIV — "If the whole world could hear me, I would say that we need to win this war as soon as possible so that all children can see their families again..."

Those words come from 12-year-old Sashko from the southeast Ukrainian city of Mariupol, who was separated from his mother by Russians during the so-called "filtration" procedure in the Donetsk region.

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Sashko is one of the thousands of children taken to the Russian Federation from the occupied regions of Ukraine under the guise of evacuation and ensuing rehabilitation ,to teach them to "love Russia."

On March 17, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Presidential Commissioner for Children's Rights in Russia, Maria Lvova-Belova. They are suspected of facilitating the forced deportation of children from the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, violating the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child.

According to the Office of the Ukrainian Prosecutor General, at least 19,000 minors have been taken to Russia and annexed Crimea since the beginning of the full-scale war. Only 364 have been returned.

Ukrainska Pravda talked to dozens of children who have managed to get back to Ukraine, testimonies that can now help able to identify the places of their detention, methods of abduction, and the names and positions of Russians who facilitated the crime.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Pierre Haski

Escalation Spark: How The Kremlin Drone Attack Could Reshape The War In Ukraine

Moscow is accusing Kyiv of trying to assassinate Putin in a drone strike on the Kremlin. It will likely be used as a pretext for Putin to escalate attacks.

-Analysis-

PARIS — It is the most mysterious episode since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine 14 months ago. It's also bound to shape the outcome of the war, at what is already a decisive moment.

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Russia has accused Ukraine of attempting to assassinate Vladimir Putin during a drone attack on the Kremlin. The two drones were destroyed over the historic building complex of Red Square in Moscow. The Russian spokesperson declared that there would be retaliation, and that Russia would decide when and how.

Ukraine has categorically denied any responsibility. Indeed, Kyiv would deny it even if it was behind the operation, especially if it failed. Nevertheless, there are several inconsistencies to the Russian version of events.

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Geopolitics
Hubertus Lutterbach

Why Putin’s Public Acts Of Religious Piety Make Him Even More Dangerous

Geopolitical analysts who view Russia as an unpredictable force tend to understand Moscow’s actions in purely worldly, political terms. German Professor of Theology Hubertus Lutterbach has uncovered a different message hidden in Putin’s religiosity — an implicit threat to his neighbors and the world.

-Analysis-

BERLIN — The recent image of Vladimir Putin holding an Easter candle was seen around the world — as was the picture of him praying in front of an iconostasis, the screen decorated with icons that separates the space around the altar from the main body of an Orthodox church.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Anna Akage

Snitch Nation: How Putin's Regime Is Getting Russians To Turn In Their Neighbors

The war in Ukraine has launched an epidemic of denunciations in Russia: 145,000 individual reports to the security services in just the first six months of the war. It's the latest evidence of the current regime's Stalinist approach.

On July 30, 1937, a secret Soviet order launched the Great Terror – a period of mass repressions during which hundreds of thousands of people were killed.

The order from dictator Joseph Stalin was dubbed, “On repressive operations of former Kulaks, criminals and other anti-Soviet elements,” and aimed to root out enemies of the Communist party by calling on citizens to denounce their neighbors to police and KGB agents, who had to meet arrest quotas set for each Soviet republic.

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In slogans, posters, work meetings, newspaper articles, books and films, official media and channels presented the denunciation of suspected enemies as every citizen’s duty to the Motherland.

Without mass participation in the search for traitors, the number of victims of repression and prisoners in camps would have been significantly lower. The Great Terror led to the arrest of 1.4 million people, and the deaths of at least 700,000 – although the real number is likely higher.

Since the beginning of the full-scale war against Ukraine, Russia and its current leader Vladimir Putin have been increasingly compared to Stalin and the Soviet Union during the era of the Great Terror. And the latest proof is in the explosion of similar denunciations by common citizens.

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