Leo XIV’s Conclave: The Inside Story Of How An American Emerged, And The Italians Folded

Updated May 11, 2025 at 5:40 p.m*

VATICAN CITY — In the end, everything can be understood from the faces of two cardinals on St. Peter’s balcony waiting for Pope Leo XIV to step outside: there was the glum expression of the cardinal frontrunner on the eve of conclave (Pietro Parolin) and the beaming smile of the kingmaker (Timothy Dolan) of the eventual winner.

Cardinal Dolan of New York had already been a key supporter in 2013 of Argentine Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who became Pope Francis — and again channeled American support in during this week’s conclave that elected his fellow American Cardinal Robert Prevost, who took the name Pope Leo XIV.

The flop of the Italian delegation is based on a simple observation. “If you have four candidates and the Americans have one, you lose,” notes a well-placed Vatican diplomat. Having presented themselves for the papal election with four eligible candidates (Pietro Parolin, Matteo Zuppi, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Giseppe Betori) was bound not to favor the return of the pontificate to Italy after three straight foreign popes: John Paul II, Benedict XVI and Francis.

This well-placed Vatican source notes that Prevost’s recent experience inside the Holy See’s administration after decades as a missionary pastor in Peru and elsewhere was the right resume for a candidate with wide appeal. “The choice of Prevost is the result of mediation: Parolin had a good number of preferences in the first two votes, but his support dropped off in the third ballot; and at that point he made his votes flow towards Prevost to ensure a message of communion and speed among the Cardinals.” 

After Thursday’s lunch

The fact that a candidate who was not among the favorites was chosen so quickly (on the conclave’s second day) means that “after Thursday’s lunch, they’d identified this solution.” 

It has now been acknowledged that Prevost had performed well during the pre-conclave general congregation meetings among cardinals, gaining the attention of electors of the Americas, of the Roman Curia, as well as Asian cardinals who oriented themselves towards him instead of Luis Tagle of the Philippines. 

Prevost is a methodical man and as seen from the delay in leaving St. Peter’s after the white smoke: he wrote out the speech, improvising only the greetings in Spanish.

Timothy Dolan, who U.S. President Donald Trump had said he was hoping would be pope, has again played a decisive role. Yet it is worth noting that after he helped seal the votes for Francis, he was disappointed by the progressive nature of his papacy. 

Dolan’s role, Parolin’s problem

Still, the past week Dolan took on the role of mending the divisions within the U.S. delegation. There were strong anti-Trump voices like Robert McElroy and Wilton Gregory, both of Washington, and the arch-conservatives like Daniel Di Nardo of Houston. Dolan understood that the time had come to play as a team, with secret meetings carried out at the Pontifical North American College near the Vatican. 

Dolan was gregarious as always in public — meanwhile he was counting the votes for Prevost.

Dolan was gregarious as always in public — meanwhile he was counting the votes for Robert Prevost, a perfectly attractive profile: American by birth but a longtime missionary in Peru, solid in doctrine, recent experience in the key Roman role as prefect of the Congregation for Bishops, fluent in Italian, English and Spanish.

For Cardinal Pietro Parolin, there is no denying that he is the big loser of the conclave. The agreement he forged on the appointment of bishops with China played against him, but so too did more fundamental divisions among those closest to Francis. Arriving disorganized at the destination, they were unable to channel their votes to candidates such as the Frenchman Jean-Marc Aveline, or the Maltese Mario Grech, who also speaks English. Also pushed out of the picture was Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Patriarch of Jerusalem of the Latins, an Italian-born Franciscan popular with the Communion and Liberation current in the church, but who was deemed too young and too “political.”

Speaking in English

The votes of Asians and Africans were decisive for the election of Prevost, exactly those that Parolin lacked despite the rumors of a ticket with another great early favorite, Cardinal Tagle. The African and Asian cardinals were undecided at the beginning of the pre-conclave congregations. Their votes in the end were oriented towards the West or at least with a certain idea of ​​the West. Prevost’s mild determination also attracted the progressives who initially supported Jean-Marc Aveline of Marseille. 

Prevost’s candidacy began to emerge at the “Commonwealth” reception where all the cardinals from the English-speaking area gathered the week before the conclave, including representatives from South Africa, the Tonga islands, Pakistan and India, as well as the British islands and the U.S. 

This time, there may have marked a tipping point in terms of language among the electors in Rome. Cardinals were increasingly heard entering the general congregations and saying “good morning, good morning”, and no longer just “buongiorno, buongiorno.” It was indeed the most international conclave ever, and it came with an Anglophone accent. 

These were all reassuring signs to certain cardinals after a Pope like Francis who seemed to be opening so many doors.

Prevost, the new Pope with the name of Leo XIV, had released a rare interview recently in which he spoke about the importance of his parents in his spiritual development. He comes from a cosmopolitan family, as geographically transversal as his education between the two American continents: a history at the crossroads of cultures with a father with French and Italian origins and a Spanish mother.

He also spoke about the importance of the love of a family. He certainly hadn’t mentioned explicitly the traditional man-woman family model, which excludes unions between people of the same sex — but that was the subtext.

These were all reassuring signs to certain cardinals after a Pope like Francis who seemed to be opening so many doors — too many, for certain cardinals who participated in the conclave. That may also explain why Pope Leo appeared on the St. Peter’s Loggia wearing the traditional mozzetta and scarlet stole, instead of the simple white cassock of his predecessor.

*Originally published May 9, 2025, this article was apdated May 11, 2025 with enriched media