Posturing Aside, Both Russia and Ukraine Need A Ceasefire Now

-Analysis-

BERLIN — Volodymyr Zelensky and the country he leads are navigating a turbulent stretch. When the Ukrainian president set off for the United States at the end of last week, his aim was to confer with Donald Trump on how to pile on enough pressure to force the aggressor, Vladimir Putin, to the table. Zelensky arrived with maps of the frontline in Ukraine and Russian infrastructure he said could be hit with additional American weapons, including Tomahawk cruise missiles.

For a moment there was a flicker of hope in Ukraine. In the best case, President Trump would spell out to Putin that things would only get worse for Russia from here. That’s how it looked to Ukrainian military expert Oleksij Melnyk, a retired lieutenant colonel, who spoke with Die Zeit ahead of the Washington meeting. That view seemed to match the expectations of Zelensky and his advisers.

Instead, events took another turn. Even before Zelensky landed, Trump had unexpectedly agreed to a summit with Putin in Budapest. During his talk with Zelensky, several sources told The Financial Times and Reuters that Trump tossed aside the maps the Ukrainian leader had brought. He reportedly urged Zelensky, angrily and with profanity, to cede territory to Russia. The U.S. president has denied this.

Zelensky, however, left without a promise of new weapons. Back in Kyiv on Monday, he had little choice but to signal at least a willingness to attend a hypothetical three-way meeting with Trump and Putin in Budapest. “We are getting closer to a possible end to the war,” Zelensky told reporters with a show of confidence.

Since then, Trump announced that plans for any such meeting were on hold and new sanctions were in store for Russian oil companies. What do we make of the posturing of all three presidents?

Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil industry

The conditions for serious talks are better now than before the Russian Ukrainian contacts in Istanbul in May, and also before the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska. That is mostly because both belligerents are in poor shape, militarily and economically.

Over the summer, Putin had every reason to stall. As long as Russia’s offensive kept grinding forward and the army could seize roughly 20 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory per day, delay served his purposes.

In recent weeks, though, the advance has slowed markedly. “The Russian summer offensive failed because it did not produce an operational breakthrough,” says Markus Reisner, a colonel in the Austrian Armed Forces who has analyzed the war since the outset.

In October, the occupation forces averaged only eight square kilometers per day. In the coming months, pushing on will likely get harder. Russia is attacking largely with small units moving on foot or by motorcycle. “In winter, when the trees are bare, soldiers have little chance to hide from drones,” says Reisner.

The broader Russian economy is sputtering.

More important still are Ukraine’s strategic gains. For weeks, Russian oil has been a successful target of Ukrainian strikes. Drones have damaged at least 18 major Russian refineries in recent weeks. By Reuters’ calculation, 21% of refining capacity is at least temporarily offline. In some regions, fuel sellers have rationed gasoline. Since July, at least 360 filling stations, about three percent of the total, have had to close for lack of fuel. The broader Russian economy is also sputtering. To cover the war driven deficit, Moscow has just raised value-added tax by two percentage points to 22%. Most civilian sectors are already in recession.

This is why Ukrainians had pinned hopes on receiving more long-range weapons from the United States, such as Tomahawks. Those could further degrade the oil industry and weigh on Putin’s next moves. “From a purely military standpoint, it would probably be an exaggeration to claim that 10 or 20 Tomahawks could break Russia’s back,” says Kyiv based expert Melnyk. “But they could change Putin’s calculus in this war. If he sees it is not a bluff.”

Financial support for Kyiv drying up

Holding the line is getting harder for Kyiv as well. Although Ukrainian units are largely keeping the front stable, the resources needed to do so are thinning out.

Soldiers from multiple sectors report a growing shortage of personnel. Fewer people are volunteering, while desertions are rising. According to the Kyiv prosecutor’s office, nearly 25,000 soldiers deserted over the past 12 months, and around 180,000 have left their units without permission at least temporarily.

The General Staff in Kyiv keeps casualty figures classified, but the number of confirmed dead and missing soldiers now stands at roughly 160,000. The shortage became glaring last August when Russian forces nearly broke through at Dobropillya. Ukraine’s top command had to scrape together reserves from other parts of the front. The counterattack on that critical sector then stalled after only a few weeks in September.

It is further evidence that neither side has found a way to break the drone war stalemate.

Away from the front, there is little to suggest a turning point. Since the United States now supplies weapons only against payment, Europe has failed to plug the gap. So far, countries including Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Canada have put up a combined $3.5 billion for purchases from the United States. That is nowhere near enough to offset the loss of direct aid. In August and September, military support from Ukraine’s partners averaged 2.26 billion euros per month, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. In the first half of the year, it was 3.94 billion euros per month.

Europe is short of funds. It also remains unclear whether and when the frozen Russian reserves in the European Union can be tapped.

Meanwhile, Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s energy and gas infrastructure. Energy specialists are already warning that the coming winter could be especially harsh because of cumulative damage over years of war. Just last weekend, Ukraine suffered a nationwide power outage for several hours. Energy production could no longer meet demand.

Next spring?

Under these conditions, both Russia and Ukraine would stand to gain from a ceasefire. Time appears to be running against both defenders and invaders, with each army facing mounting problems. The pervasive use of drones makes successful assaults and counterassaults exceedingly difficult.

The larger question is how Putin and Zelensky rate their own problems relative to the other side’s. So far, the Russian leader shows little sign of reassessment. Putin may have scaled back his maximal territorial demands, namely that Ukraine withdraw from all four regions Russia claims to have annexed. At present, Russia is reportedly demanding only a Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas, that is, the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in the east. The territory in question covers about 6,000 square kilometers.

Both sides believe they can win.

Zelensky, for his part, has said Ukraine is not losing the war and that Putin’s army is in a “weak position.” Against that backdrop, it is seen as almost impossible that Kyiv would order a retreat from the areas it currently holds in the Donbas.

“Both sides believe they can win,” says Reisner. “Ukraine has agreed to talks without preconditions and to a ceasefire along the front. Russia has not.” While Russia is feeling pressure from Ukrainian strikes on its oil industry, Reisner does not think this alone will force Putin to back down. His most likely scenario is that a new round of talks again fails, the war enters a fifth year in 2026, and Russia launches yet another spring offensive.