MADRID —Turn off the alarm, get up, splash your face with water, and put the coffee on. This ritual repeats itself daily for millions of people across the globe who can’t imagine starting the day without their morning brew. Each year, around 10 million tons of coffee are produced worldwide, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture. Most of it ends up being consumed far from where it’s grown. A Dane, on average, drinks 13 kilos of coffee per year, a German seven, and a Spaniard three and a half — yet not a single coffee plant grows in their fields. In Brazil, the world’s largest producer, per capita consumption barely reaches two kilos, according to World Population Review.
For all of them, there’s been a noticeable trend over the past year — especially in a broader context of inflation and trade disputes. Coffee is getting more and more expensive. What’s showing up on grocery receipts starts with raw material prices: according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the cost of unroasted coffee hovered around 348 cents per pound in March — roughly €7 per kilo at the current exchange rate. By the end of 2023, it was just over €3 per kilo.
“The upward trend in coffee prices is clear. Since the start of the 2023/2024 coffee season, the ICO composite price indicator has increased by 129%,” say sources at the ICO. “Historically, we’re at record highs. The highest price so far was in February. That said, we’ve seen price spikes before. Adjusted for inflation, the real peak was in April 1977, when a pound fetched the equivalent of 1,354.33 US cents.”
A sensitive bean
Two countries are behind more than half the world’s coffee: Brazil (38%) and Vietnam (17%). Far behind are Colombia, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Uganda, India, Honduras, Peru, and Mexico. All of these places offer the kind of terrain and climate coffee plants need. Although there are two commercially used species — Coffea arabica and Coffea robusta — and a vast number of varieties, they all need high humidity to bear fruit, tend to prefer high altitudes — with some exceptions —, and are not at all frost-tolerant.
The Arabica variety, which yields the higher-quality beans, is the pickier of the two — but in general, coffee is a climate-sensitive crop. Or to put it another way, coffee production is highly vulnerable to extreme weather and to the new climate conditions taking root in many growing regions. This is hardly breaking news: for years now, studies have warned that climate change could put a serious dent in global coffee output.
Global coffee production could shrink by as much as 50% by 2050
A special report by the IPCC (the UN’s climate science panel), published in 2018, concluded that half of all land currently used for coffee production could lose its optimal growing conditions due to climate change, though some areas might benefit from new conditions that allow coffee cultivation. Another study by the Climate Institute found that if the current warming trend continues, global coffee production could shrink by as much as 50% by 2050.
“Coffee is extremely sensitive to climate change. Rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and extreme weather are already affecting coffee-growing regions worldwide,” the ICO notes. “Both Arabica and Robusta face major challenges, but Arabica is particularly at risk, as it depends on cooler and more stable conditions.”
The drought
In 2023 and 2024, most of Brazil suffered from intense drought, largely driven by El Niño—a natural warming cycle in the Pacific now amplified by man-made climate change. On top of that came a few sharp cold snaps and torrential downpours in some of Brazil’s key coffee-producing regions. The result, according to February 2025 figures from the Brazilian Coffee Association, was an annual export drop of more than 10%.
Vietnam, the world’s number two producer, faced a similar situation. Higher-than-usual temperatures and drought, also intensified by El Niño, persisted throughout 2023 and 2024, and so far this year, conditions for coffee growers haven’t shown much improvement. According to the Southeast Asian nation’s customs department, coffee exports fell by 18.8% last year.
The steady decline in coffee reserves caused by poor harvests is the main reason behind the price hike. But it’s not the only one. Disruptions in global shipping — routes through the Red Sea were blocked for much of last year by the conflict in Yemen and the war in Palestine —, the enforcement of the EU regulation against deforestation in third countries, and the surge in fertilizer and energy costs since the war in Ukraine began are all playing a role in driving up the price of coffee.
“Climate change is making harvests increasingly unpredictable,” the ICO concludes. “But rising costs tied to labor, fertilizer, and transport are also pushing prices up. Governments, research institutes, and coffee associations are now working with farmers on more resilient plant varieties and farming methods suited to this new climate reality.”
