Ten Years Of Saudi Intervention In Yemen — Anatomy Of A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

-Analysis-

SANA’A — It seems that it all began with those famous words attributed to the late Saudi King Abdulaziz Al Saud: “Make Yemen weak enough that it does not become a threat, but strong enough to avoid chaos.”

This principle has governed Saudi policy in Yemen for decades. But has it been achieved? Has Saudi Arabia succeeded in striking this balance, keeping Yemen down in a way that preserves the order of its calculations?

Ten years ago, Saudi Arabia plunged directly into the Yemeni quagmire, launching a military intervention alongside several coalition countries. At first, it appeared to be driven by clear political and strategic calculations. Everyone expected the battle to be settled in weeks.

But soon, this flash intervention turned into an endless war, making Yemen a testing ground for broader regional policies and interests. While the world tries to ignore it, Yemen remains in the spotlight, disrupting the fate of its neighbors and major global powers.

The fundamental reason behind the Saudi intervention was nothing but an old illusion wearing a new mask: seeing the Houthis as an Iranian puppet, an evil tool controlled by Tehran with invisible strings. That is how the powers in Riyadh perceived the threat approaching their doorstep, and that is how they rushed into a swamp from which they still don’t know how to escape.

The truth is more complex than the narrative they want to believe. Yes, Iran was there, whispering in the Houthis’ ears, giving them some strategic advice and political visions. But was it fully controlling them? Hardly.

The Houthis were not just pawns on an Iranian chessboard, but the product of local alliances, tribal dynamics, and internal complexities far beyond the simplistic view that everything in this world is dictated by orders from major capitals.

Still, Saudi Arabia continued to regurgitate the same narrative, repeating it like a mantra — as if saying it enough times would make it true. The problem is that this enmity, marketed as a war against Iranian influence, did not weaken Iran but rather strengthened its foothold in Yemen. The more the Houthis were squeezed, the more they clung to Tehran: not out of love, but because they had no other option.

Unwittingly, Saudi Arabia created with its own hands what it had feared: Houthis more closely tied to Tehran, better armed, and more capable of survival — as if it were digging its own grave with its nails while smiling.

From the beginning, it was a lie.

Let’s be honest: from the moment the Houthis took control of Sana’a in 2014, the regional chess game took an unexpected turn. Saudi Arabia, which dreamed of a quick entry (in six weeks, as it claimed) onto the battlefield, thought it could impose its control with ease, as if Yemen were just a spot on the map. But this small country, tucked behind mountains, is unlike any other.

There is something strange in Yemen’s air — things never go as expected, and foreign interventions, no matter their goals, often lead to catastrophic and unforeseen results.

The war was not simple; something else was happening. The conflict was not just between armies but between ideologies. Saudi Arabia saw itself as the leader of the Sunni world, embracing a centralized state model backed by the West, especially the U.S.

As the war dragged on, the number of armed factions multiplied.

The Houthis, on the other hand, adopted an anti-Saudi, anti-Western discourse, presenting themselves as a “resistance” movement against Saudi and American hegemony. Each side carried a different banner. The Houthis stood their ground, defending themselves as if they alone understood the truth in this collapsing world. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, waving its noble mission of spreading stability, found itself trapped in an endless quagmire.

No one can deny that an entire decade of war has burned away pages of Yemenis’ lives. No one can ignore the harsh truth: ten years of war have left everything fragile and torn. Every side — the Houthis, the Saudi coalition, and their Western allies— has been focused solely on staying afloat, without achieving their grand objectives or securing a clear victory.

Failure is not just military. No, failure is when one sacrifices something and gains nothing. Saudi Arabia entered a battle against the Houthis, only to find itself fighting itself. Every battle meant a loss — militarily or politically. Those who once dreamed of a swift victory discovered that Yemen is not just a battlefield; it is a mirror reflecting all the flaws and shortcomings in their strategies.

War is not just about destruction

Yemen, now unable to stand on its feet, has seen its so-called military coalition turn against itself. Even the internationally recognized Yemeni government has been crippled by corruption, nepotism, and incompetence. Its internal struggles have undermined its ability to restore stability or govern effectively. The more Saudi Arabia tried to unify its ranks, the more divisions grew.

As the war dragged on, the number of armed factions multiplied. The alliances that once opposed the Houthis fractured into competing power centers, many supported either by Saudi Arabia or the UAE. The UAE, in particular, has built several proxy forces that operate outside the control of Yemen’s government, beyond any centralized command. The war is splintering, and everyone is chasing their own interests.

Diplomacy: what’s next?

Here lies the bigger struggle. Saudi Arabia, despite its vast military power, has finally realized that force alone does not bring stability. War is not a game of hoisting victory flags — it is a long nightmare with no end. A shift began in 2023. Under economic and diplomatic pressures, the Saudis started looking for another way forward. How could they fix what they had broken? Would they keep fighting the Houthis forever, or would they negotiate?

In April 2023, the Saudi ambassador met with the Houthis in Sana’a. Yes, the Saudi ambassador — who was supposed to be fighting them — was now sitting in the same room with them. The battle had shifted from a brutal war to political dialogue. We expected this to be the beginning of the end, but it was also the beginning of something else.

The American airstrikes represent a last-ditch attempt to fix what the Saudi intervention wrecked

But can Yemen be repaired? The answer for now is: No. For Saudi Arabia is not alone in this mess — everyone in this quagmire is sinking together. Yemen will remain a theater for regional conflict, even as diplomacy and politics shift course. The harsh reality is that the Saudi coalition failed to understand Yemen for what it truly is. They never grasped the spirit that lives within it. And with each passing day, the picture only becomes murkier.

Houthi strikes on Red Sea shipments, American vessels, and Israeli targets in solidarity with Gaza confirm that the group has assumed a new regional role — one that terrifies many. Beyond all the strategic mistakes made by the Saudi-led coalition, these miscalculations only strengthened the group’s hand. As their power grows, the Houthis have become a solid force in this regional equation.

The recent American airstrikes represent a last-ditch attempt to fix what the Saudi intervention wrecked over the past decade. But in their efforts to shift the balance, the Americans, too, fail to understand that this conflict cannot be resolved by force alone.

Ten years of war have turned Yemen into more than just a battlefield — it has become a symbol of the failures of great powers. Yemen, the bleeding wound, is a reflection of everyone’s shortcomings. Turning toward peace offers one last chance, for all, to reflect a different path for the entire region.