-Analysis-
BOGOTÁ — The Democrats may have an exciting new presidential candidate in Vice President Kamala Harris, but odds are still uncomfortably high that Donald Trump will return to the White House.
Yes, with the assassination attempt sure to energize his supporters, the world must prepare for a second Trump administration. This is especially the case for Latin America, where three major issues on Trump’s agenda are of potential concern.
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The first is migration. After calling most migrants criminals, psychopaths and fugitives and blaming them for most crimes committed in the United States, Trump is promising mass arrests and deportations, perhaps on a historic scale, of undocumented migrants
Protectionism
Hundreds of thousands of people could end up in detention camps under army guard prior to their expulsion. Walls on the border would be extended, and entry visas will become harder to obtain — perhaps even for those born in the United States.
The second issue is drug trafficking and the cartels. On this issue, the former president has stated on many occasions his resolve to take firm measures, even use force, against this threat from inside Mexico. Certain collaborators even claim to have heard Trump mention invading Mexico, bombing cartel hideouts or going to war with what is presently a key trading and business partner.
The third issue is economic. Trump and running mate, J.D. Vance, are protectionists, economic nationalists and favor isolationism in international affairs. Various Trump advisers, including the somewhat exotic Peter Navarro, are touting the idea of a flat 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and 10% for all other imports. They believe this model could earn the country vast sums from tariffs that could pay for income tax cuts.
Serious repercussions
All three issues would have serious repercussions for Latin American countries. They would first have to receive and take in people deported from the United States, and seek solutions for the hundreds of thousands of migrants crossing their territories every year to reach the United States. In Colombia, for example, half a million people begin their northward journey through the Darién Gap.
Likewise, Mexico and its new government would face a threatening neighbor, which would determine whether or not it continues its current policy of “hugs not bullets” as a “social” response to crime.
Finally, a flat tariff on all imports to the United States would violate its free-trade commitments and spark a trade war with, well, the world. It would certainly constitute a heavy blow against Latin American economies, cause major, costly shifts and significantly boost joblessness and poverty.
The region can thus expect major problems if Trump wins, and as analysts are suggesting. It could even see itself forced into gravitating toward another of the world’s power orbits, China and the Global South.
