Why Trump (And Ukrainians) Will Be Watching Poland’s Election So Closely

-OpEd-

WARSAW — I’ve read Polish President Andrzej Duda‘s statements. I’ve listened Karol Nawrocki, his anointed successor as the presidential candidate of the conservative PiS party . And I believe that if the nationalist-conservative PiS (Law and Justice) party wins Poland’s presidential election on May 18, it would help the United States twist Ukraine’s arm.

On the third anniversary of Russia‘s attack on Ukraine, a scandal broke out at the United Nations General Assembly. The resolution proposed by Ukraine and other Western countries, which clearly indicated President Vladimir Putin’s Russia as the culprit in the outbreak of the war, was rejected by, among others, Russia, Belarus, Hungary and… the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump is striving to fulfill his election promise to end the war as soon as possible. He has adopted aggressive tactics toward Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, insulting and threatening him. And he has complimented Putin, who is responsible for the unimaginable crimes committed in Ukraine, and even offers him vodka. Trump wants to intimidate Zelensky and force him to sign a peace treaty on unfavorable terms.

Duda’s chat with Trump

In the resolution proposed by the United States on the war’s third anniversary, the word “war” was not even mentioned; it was about the Russian-Ukrainian “conflict.” In a word, a disgrace.

Poland behaved as it should have; it supported the Ukrainian resolution and voted to introduce the necessary amendments to the U.S. resolution, so that there would be no doubt who was responsible for the war. I wonder how our diplomats would behave if Poles had decided differently in 2023; if the pro-European Donald Tusk was not prime minister. Would a PiS government dare to have a different position from the United States on the war in Ukraine?

I doubt it, given what I read in statements by Duda — an independent who was formerly part of the PiS. Before his humiliating eight-minute conversation with the U.S. president on the sidelines of a conservative event in Washington, Duda had advised Zelensky to trust Trump.

“I trust that good will and honesty form the foundation of the U.S. negotiation strategy. I have no doubt that President Trump is guided by a deep sense of responsibility for global stability and peace,” Duda wrote on X. After the chat, he had no more advice for Zelensky.

Orban’s role

I also have been listening to the PiS-supported presidential candidate Nawrocki, who repeats that there is no place for Ukraine in NATO. Believing in Trump would turn PiS-led Poland into a tool in the hands of his administration.

Poland would end up in the role of helping Americans twist Ukrainians’ arms to make them sign a neocolonial agreement to give the U.S. control over Ukraine‘s rare earth resources.

Viktor Orbán, PiS’s only ally in Europe, has the same position.

We would sabotage the European efforts to keep peace in Ukraine from being discussed with Russia behind their back. Veteran PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński is already warning against assembling an anti-American coalition in the EU. That would allegedly be led by Germany and its likely next chancellor, Friedrich Merz.

I have reason to believe that Poland would vote in the UN the same way as the United States, especially because Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, PiS’s only ally in Europe, has the same position.

Reports claiming that Poland’s centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk “wants war” would be broadcast on Polish Television (TPV) if the public broadcaster were controlled by PiS… Poland has already experienced that kind of control. It could be back very soon.