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TOPIC: european union

FOCUS: Israel-Palestine War

My Gaza Diary: The Massacre Has Resumed, Nowhere To Hide

Three days since the truce ended, the Israeli army announced that it had launched 10,000 airstrikes on Gaza since the beginning of the war. Total war continues, with the invader’s fiercest fight waged against life itself.

RAFAH — On the evening of the 57th day of the war, I was facing a situation that no one would envy.

A friend from Jordan called to tell me her brother and his children, who had been displaced from Gaza City to Rafah, were injured by a bombing in the Al-Geneina neighborhood in eastern Rafah, where I now live. She wanted to check on them. As soon as she mentioned her brother's name, I knew that he had been killed. I told her: “I will ask at the hospital, and will let you know.”

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At that moment I stopped thinking. What would I say to her? It is not easy to be the one who tells a friend their loved one is dead.

The next day, the friend called back to say she’d found out her brother had been killed, and that his wife and children had been injured but were fine. She asked this time for help to search for her five-year-old nephew, who was missing and had not wound up at the hospital. After hours of searching, they found his body. He died too from the bombing.

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Wealthy Russians Are Back To Buying Real Estate In Europe — Sanctions Be Damned

After the start of the war in Ukraine, Russian oligarchs and other rich individuals turned to the real estate markets in Dubai and Turkey. Now Russian buyers are back in Europe. Three EU countries in particular are attracting buyers for their controversial "golden visa" program.

BERLINWestern sanctions imposed after the start of Russia's war against Ukraine have made financial outflows from Russia much more difficult — and paradoxically have also helped to strengthen Russia's economy, as the renowned economist Ruben Enikolopov recently noted in an interview for the online media "The Bell".

So while sanctions have not completely prevented these financial flows, they played a role in changing their direction.

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It was notable in real estate purchases during the first year of the war: as Russian buyers moved away from the previously coveted European market to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as well as to Turkey or the South Caucasus and even Southeast Asia.

Instead of "Londongrad", where the high- to middle-income earners from Vladimir Putin's empire turned for the previous two decades, people suddenly started talking about "Dubaigrad."

But this trend now seems to have peaked, with unexpected signs that Russians are back on the European real estate market.

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The Gaza Ceasefire Is Over, With Western Diplomacy Weaker Than Ever

Diplomacy has failed to stave off a resumption of the war in Gaza. Yes, Israel made clear its goal of destroying Hamas is not complete. But the end of the truce is also one more sign that both the U.S. and Europe hold less sway in the region than they once did.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Unfortunately, the end of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was predictable. In a previous column this week, I wrote that the question was not whether the war would resume, but rather when (and how) it would resume. Israel has made it clear in recent days that it has not yet achieved its goal of destroying Hamas in Gaza, and that it still intends to do just that.

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Still, international diplomacy has not been idle. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrived in Israel on Thursday: the United States was putting pressure on Israel so that, once the conflict resumed, it would inflict fewer civilian casualties — a more “surgical” war.

It is obviously too early to know if Blinken’s words have been heard. The only question is whether Israel will apply the same massive strategy in the south of the territory as in the north, or if the country will carry out more targeted operations, in a region with a very high population density.

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Geert Wilders, The European Union's Biggest Problem Since Brexit

The victory of Geert Wilders' far-right party in this week's elections in the Netherlands shows that politics in Europe, at both the national and European Union level, has fundamentally failed to overcome its contradictions.

Updated Nov. 28, 2023 at 6:15 p.m.

-Analysis-

PARIS — For a long time, Geert Wilders, recognizable by his peroxide hair, was an eccentric, disconcerting and yet mostly marginal figure in Dutch politics. He was known for his public outbursts against Muslims, particularly Moroccans who are prevalent in the Netherlands, which once led to a court convicting him for the collective insulting of a nationality.

Consistently ranking third or fourth in poll results, this time he emerged as the leader in Wednesday's national elections. The shock is commensurate with his success: 37 seats out of 150, twice as many as in the previous legislature.

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The recipe is the same everywhere: a robustly anti-immigration agenda that capitalizes on fears. Wilders' victory in the Netherlands reflects a prevailing trend across the continent, from Sweden to Portugal, Italy and France.

We must first see if Wilders manages to put together the coalition needed to govern. Already the first roadblock came this week with the loss of one of his top allies scouting for coalition partners from other parties: Gom van Strien, a senator in Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) was forced to resign from his role after accusations of fraud resurfaced in Dutch media.

Nonetheless, at least three lessons can be drawn from Wilders' far-right breakthrough in one of the founding countries of the European Union.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Ukraine, "Collateral Victim" Of The West's Double Standard — And Israeli Bombs

The state of the Ukraine War was growing fragile even before Oct. 7, but the conflict in the Middle East has changed the equation in Moscow's favor. It's not just a shift in attention and resources, but an undermining of the values and rationale behind Kyiv's cause.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Ukraine needed some good news, and it arrived from Brussels. The European Commission decided Wednesday to open accession talks with Kyiv to become an EU member. It came as no surprise — Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen had traveled to Kyiv a few days earlier to inform Volodymyr Zelensky.

This does not mean that Ukraine will soon become the 28th member of the European Union, it's a long road, with a number of steps to take. Still, the decision, which also included the same status for Moldova, is important.

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For Ukrainian, Brussels' announcement is reassuring: its European allies are not forgetting them, even though the war against Russia has largely disappeared for the past month, overshadowed by the massive crisis between Israel and Hamas.

But this is hardly the only issue facing Ukraine's leaders.

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Economy
Jacques Attali

Rebuilding Ukraine: The U.S. Is Already Way Ahead Of Europe

The war is far from over, but on the other side of the Atlantic, preparations are already underway to ensure American businesses access to this promising market. In Europe, no one is making such necessary preparations, worries Jacques Attali.

PARIS — Sources say the American administration called a recent meeting with the country’s largest business leaders, explaining that when the war in Ukraine is over, it will be time to rebuild the country’s entire infrastructure.

If those American companies want to secure some of these contracts, they must prepare for the major projects ahead. Backed by American capital, the project will be to rebuild a large European country with a highly educated and resilient population destined to join the EU and one day NATO — not to mention a land mass rich in natural resources.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Cameron Manley

Why The Polish Election Results Are Such Good News For Ukraine

The recent Polish parliamentary elections have ushered in a significant shift in the country's political landscape, which includes promising outlook for its neighbor Ukraine that could be essential in shoring up support across Europe as the war with Russia heads into its third winter. But Kyiv shouldn't take the amity of Donald Tusk and his centrist coalition for granted.

Updated Oct. 18, 2023 at 5 p.m.

-Analysis-

Poland's election results mark a major turning point in the nation's politics. While the ruling national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party secured the most votes with 36.8%, it almost certainly didn't gain enough support to maintain its hold on power. Instead, the centrist Civic Coalition (GC), led by Donald Tusk, former President of the European Council, is expected to take power in a coalition with the Third Way, a new center-left political force that outperformed expectations.

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This outcome signals the end of eight years of PiS rule. Civic Coalition and Third Way should be able to control 248 out of 460 seats in Parliament, holding the promise for a more balanced and democratic governance in Poland.

But beyond the borders of Poland, the impact of this handover of power is a much-needed burst of hope to Ukraine after the past two months of disputes with the Polish government, which Kyiv had long counted on as a steadfast ally in the war against Russia.

In the lead-up to this weekend's election, tensions had grown between Warsaw and Kyiv, as a disagreement over the export of Ukrainian grain to the West escalated into a broader dispute involving PiS leaders.

The standoff was surprising, as Kyiv-based Ukrainska Pravda writes, considering Poland had played a pivotal role in providing military aid, facilitating the transport of NATO weapons to the east, and advocating strongly for Ukraine within the European Union.

Some observers interpreted the acrimony from the ruling party as an attempt to counter the electoral threat posed by the far-right Confederation party, which has openly expressed hostility toward the Ukrainian government and the approximately 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees residing in Poland.

Tusk had slammed PiS for its disputes with Ukraine ahead of the election. The former prime minister said maintaining good relations with Ukraine was "an existential issue" for Warsaw.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Polish Elections: Liberal Democracy Is Still Alive And Kicking

The results from the landmark Polish election, which saw a surge by liberal and center-right parties, is long awaited good news for the European Union... and not-so-good news for Viktor Orban.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Poland has provided the world with a fine illustration of the difference between an "illiberal" regime and a dictatorship. The country's ruling party Law and Justice (better known by its initials, PiS) falls perfectly under said "illiberal" label, having greatly undermined the independence of the judiciary and curtailed press freedom in recent years.

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But the national-populist party lost the general election on Sunday, to an opposition front led by former prime minister and former European Council leader Donald Tusk. This was anything but a done deal, be it only because of the continuous, if crude, attempts to discredit Tusk.

This relative defeat of the PiS — the party is holding its own in terms of votes but has seen the collapse of its potential far-right ally — is an important political moment for Europe.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Kyiv Reality Check: What Ukraine's Friends Say Out Loud — And Whisper To Each Other

Europe's foreign ministers traveled together to Kyiv yesterday to reaffirm their support for Ukraine. It is necessary after the first signs of "fatigue" in Western support, from a Polish about-face to the victory of a pro-Russian prime minister in Slovakia.

-Analysis-

PARIS — The symbolism is strong: for the first time ever, Europe's foreign ministers meet in a country outside the European Union. But it looks like a diplomatic ‘Coué’. The Coué method, named for a French psychologist, holds that a person tends to repeat a message to convince oneself as much as to convince others.

In Kyiv on Monday, the European foreign ministers solemnly reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine, perhaps because it's suddenly no longer as obvious to them as to the rest of the world.

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There has indeed been some hesitation as of late; and it was undoubtedly time for this display of unity, which has stood as one of the major diplomatic achievements since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Hungarian foreign minister was notably absent from the family photo, due to his "Putinophilia", and his Polish counterpart was officially ill, which happens to coincide with the recent Polish-Ukrainian quarrel. It's also a safe bet that, in a few weeks' time, the Slovakian minister could also be missing from such a gathering, following Sunday's election victory of the pro-Russian Robert Fico.

These nuances aside, there was a message of firmness in Kyiv, embodied by the bit of alliteration from German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who predicted that Europe that would soon go "from Lisbon to Luhansk" — Luhansk, in the Donbas region of Ukraine, currently annexed by Russia.

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Geopolitics
Pierre Haski

Why Slovakia's Robert Fico Is Good For Putin — And Even Better For Orban

One man's victory in Slovakia may move the tides of European support for Ukraine, and play into an "illiberal temptation" that is spreading across the continent, with Hungary's prime minister set to cash in on his perennial clash with the EU.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Robert Fico, remember this name: you might hear a lot about him in the coming months. Fico emerged as the winner of Sunday's legislative elections in the central European nation of Slovakia, following a highly contested campaign.

To understand the significance, one must only look at who congratulated him first: Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, who had been previously isolated in his pro-Putin stance. On X (formerly Twitter) Orban wrote: "Look who's back! Congratulations to Robert Fico for his impressive victory in the Slovak elections. I look forward to working with a patriot."

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Orban indeed has reason to rejoice. If Fico manages to form a coalition — which is not certain as he only has one-quarter of the votes — the Hungarian leader may feel less isolated during the upcoming European Council meetings. There would then be two leaders simultaneously challenging both the support for Ukraine and the integration projects of the 27 European Union member states. For decisions that require a consensus, they would be two leaders capable of blocking them.

Robert Fico is not a newcomer. He previously served as Prime Minister on two occasions and made a dramatic resignation in 2018 after the assassination of the journalist Jan Kuciak and his partner in Slovakia. This case exposed the infiltration of organized crime within the ruling elite. Meanwhile, we've stopped taking count of how many of Fico's inner circle have been convicted of corruption.

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Migrant Lives

Lampedusa, The Far Right's Favorite European Island

The European migrant crisis is once again making headlines, this time from the small island of Lampedusa, Italy. It exposes not only the far right's eagerness to exploit the issue of immigration, but also the delicate balance of power in electoral terms.

-Analysis-

PARIS — Europe is facing a new test of its unity and strength. In recent years, it had to tackle challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This time, the test comes from the tiny Italian island of Lampedusa.

This 20 square-kilometer island saw more migrants arrive last week than it has inhabitants, some 8500 people, largely from Tunisia, arriving on 200 boats. While this is a large number for the island to handle, it's s important to have perspective before using terms such as "invasion." We are far from the numbers seen in 2015 when one million migrants arrived, particularly from Syria.

The issue is humanitarian, but also, ultimately, political. It challenges the hard line on immigration of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and her coalition that spans from center-right to far-right allies. The arrival of migrants en masse serves as an ideal opportunity for political exploitation as the campaign for the European elections begins. It also disrupts the shaky migration policy of the European Union and the agreement narrowly reached in June.

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War
Pierre Haski

Here's Why Western Support For Ukraine Is Not About To End

It's undeniable that questions are being raised in the West about the cost of supporting Ukraine in its defense against Russia's invasion. But no time soon will Western powers turn their backs on Kyiv. And the U.S. in particular has one big extra reason to work against a Russian victory: China.

-Analysis-

PARIS — There's been a buzz around the idea for some time now, linked to the lack of decisive progress in the war in Ukraine: Western allies are said to be questioning their military and financial support for Kyiv.

Two things are unquestionable: first, the Ukrainian offensive, which began some two months ago, has led to some territorial advances; but it's also true that it has not reversed the balance of power as Kyiv's generals had hoped, because the Russian defensive system is formidable.

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The other undeniable fact is that it's all very expensive: tens of billions of euros and dollars in military and economic aid over a year and a half of war. Earlier this week, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke of "a significant financial, diplomatic and capability investment for years to come."

Could this reality undermine the solidity of Western support? On Tuesday, conservative French daily Le Figaro ran a headline about the "first doubts" in the U.S. about aid to Ukraine. Europe, as well, is hearing voices along the same lines.

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