-Analysis-
BERLIN — Friedrich Merz wanted to go down in history. And he did, just not in the way he had hoped. For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, a would-be chancellor failed to get the necessary votes in the Bundestag.
On paper, Merz’s conservative CDU/CSU party and his center-left coalition partner, the SPD, held a 12-seat majority. Yet in the first round of voting, they still fell six votes short.
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It was an embarrassment for Merz. And a disaster for the country, one it could not afford.
But the dramatic day in Germany’s Bundestag ended up turning to Merz’s advantage, as a second round of voting brought the 69-year-old over the necessary threshold, confirming him as chancellor.
It’s a rollercoaster that puts an end to six months of Germany without a proper government: The traffic light coalition collapsed on Nov. 6, just hours after Donald Trump was re-elected as president in the United States. Six months later, on May 6, the incoming coalition failed to support its chosen chancellor in the first round of voting. Meanwhile, Trump is toying with Ukraine and European security, his unpredictable moves on tariffs and trade are shaking German industry, and Russia has long since fixed its gaze on Europe.
The frustration over Merz and his personnel choices must have been immense.
The global order is teetering, and Europe needs to show a united front, which is why expectations for Merz and the new German government were sky-high. But the dissenters within the coalition clearly didn’t care. By failing to pick Merz from the get-go, they have sent a signal of instability to Europe, to Germany’s allies and adversaries alike. That is an act of pure irresponsibility.
The frustration over Merz and his personnel choices must have been immense. Because the vote was secret, no one knows which MPs from which parties withheld their support. What is clear, however, is that Merz and his designated vice chancellor, Lars Klingbeil, sidelined an entire cabinet and leadership team under the banner of a fresh start, and in doing so, stirred deep discontent within their own camp. The lack of trust in Merz is well documented in polls and is just as obvious in the corridors of power. And yet it is unreasonable to block the start of a government, even for a few hours.
This dramatic misstep rounds out the picture of a historically fraught government formation. The CDU/CSU and SPD began with a weak mandate, and public confidence quickly crumbled. Merz backed away from his campaign promises the morning after the election, the SPD tore itself apart over internal appointments, and the far-right AfD has surged in the polls, surpassing the CDU/CSU in some regions.
Merz himself will never completely shake the stigma of May 6.
Yet the CDU/CSU-Red coalition has also created enormous opportunities, especially in terms of funding for defense and infrastructure. That gives them a genuine chance to tackle the country’s deep structural challenges. And given the international context, this is not just an opportunity: it is an urgent necessity. Failing to let a government with this kind of scope begin its work would have been a serious mistake.
Merz himself will never completely shake the stigma of May 6. Yes, even now that he has indeed been elected chancellor, it will take real strength and considerably more political acumen to become a successful one.
