-Analysis-
BERLIN — To appreciate how fortunate Europe is right now, it’s worth looking back a few years. When Donald Trump’s first term as U.S. president began in 2017, the European Union and the United Kingdom were still grappling with the aftermath of Brexit. In London, then-Prime Minister Theresa May attempted to navigate the turbulent waters, only to be succeeded by the opportunistic Boris Johnson. A segment of the British population indulged in fantasies of a “global Britain,” distancing itself from the continent.
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Meanwhile, Poland was being run by right-wing nationalist Jarosław Kaczyński (a deputy prime minister who was de facto leader of the country), whose party often positioned itself at odds with the EU and the broader European community. The young and ambitious French President Emmanuel Macron had just begun his tenure, brimming with enthusiasm but lacking experience. Angela Merkel, often hailed as the “leader of the free world,” was entering her fourth term as German chancellor, and her influence was beginning to wane. What a stark contrast to today!
Now, at the helm of Europe’s most influential nations, stand leaders who fully comprehend the gravity of our times. They recognize that Europe faces perhaps its most formidable challenge since the end of World War II: defending the continent against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression and safeguarding it from Trump’s unpredictability. They understand that this challenge can only be met through unity.
Macron and Starmer
The dynamic Macron and the pragmatic UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have taken the reins since Trump’s disruptive ascent on the global stage. Both made early trips to Washington to engage directly with the U.S. president; both maintained regular communication with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Macron hosted European allies at the Élysée presidential palace, followed by Starmer convening them in London. One summit leads to another. This week, Paris is again playing the host, with the next crisis meeting scheduled for Thursday, March 27. Together, Macron and Starmer are trying to forge an alliance to defend not only Ukraine against Putin but also NATO against Trump if necessary.
France’s president, still ambitious yet more measured than eight years ago, can claim foresight in advocating for a more autonomous Europe, less reliant on external powers. Starmer shares this vision but only to a certain extent; the British continue to view themselves as Americans’ closest allies. But just as decisively as he continues to court Washington, he has now positioned the UK as a key player in shaping a new order for the Old Continent, working alongside the European Union.
Poland’s strategic importance
The third member of this leadership trio is Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who, despite maintaining a lower profile, plays a crucial role. Serving his second term as Poland’s head of government and having chaired EU summits for five years as president of the European Council, Tusk possesses an intimate understanding of European politics. He has shown that he knows how to counteract domestic adversaries of the EU. Given Poland’s strategic importance, a new European security architecture would be incomplete without Tusk’s clear-eyed and dependable partnership.
The current lineup of European leadership presents a favorable landscape, more promising than it has been in quite some time. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission since 2019, also embodies the qualities now in demand: experience, resilience and ambition.
What Europe still lacks is a German chancellor to complete this quartet.
Historian Timothy Garton Ash recently noted that Europe’s has always moved forward “thanks to the combination of strong leaders at the head of the institution… and a strategic coalition of member states,” and said he is “cautiously optimistic.”
What Europe still lacks is a chancellor to complete this quartet. Germany, positioned at the continent’s center, is crucial for Europe’s cohesion and progress. Without proactive engagement from Berlin, Brussels’ initiatives risk stagnation. Merkel certainly earned recognition for maintaining unity within the EU, but she may not be remembered as a transformative figure for the continent. Still in office, her successor, Olaf Scholz, seems to have faded into the background. Rarely has a German head of government been so reticent and had so little influence within the EU as this enigmatic chancellor.
Enter Germany
Enter the would-be next German chancellor, Friedrich Merz. Though not yet elected to the Bundestag, he already seems to be cloaked in the mantle of history. As former Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer told Die Zeit, Merz’s benchmark is Konrad Adenauer. Just as Germany’s first chancellor anchored the fledgling Federal Republic firmly in the West after World War II, Merz now faces the task of repositioning Germany as a military power within a united Europe. Indeed, there is much to suggest that Merz has recognized what this historic moment demands of him — and that he is ready to take his place among the European musketeers.
A shift that many neighboring countries have long anticipated.
Germany’s recent relaxation of fiscal constraints, the commitment to rearmament, and the openness to dialogue with France and Great Britain about a nuclear shield for Europe, all signal a shift that many neighboring countries have long anticipated. Merz has already met with Macron twice since the February snap election and has proactively reached out to Tusk and Poland. The most important political leadership task in the coming years, Merz says, is to have an open and honest discussion with the German people about the genuine threats facing Europe.
Starmer, Tusk, Macron and Merz are the four musketeers standing together against the challenges posed by Trump and Putin. The road ahead is daunting, but this quartet could prove to be just the stroke of luck Europe needs.
