BERLIN — There are plenty of people who never believed Friedrich Merz was a viable candidate to become the German chancellor. But even they couldn’t deny that the CDU/CSU leader not only established but consolidated a solid advantage in the polls ahead of Sunday’s national elections.
Yes, it was clear to all, but hadn’t yet materialized.
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Now, Merz is very much here. This is our new reality: he is going to be Germany’s chancellor. And this is his new reality: he is going to have to find a way to govern. The 69-year-old center-right leader is about to stand at the forefront to defend Europe — with the likes of Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and JD Vance before him, and Vladimir Putin right behind.
Meanwhile, the far-right AfD, the very party whose support Merz once vowed to cut in half, has doubled its presence in parliament as compared to the previous federal election.
So Merz, the candidate for chancellor, has won. But winning once he is chancellor may prove much more difficult. Even if his new coalition runs smoothly, he does not stand a chance if the country does not trust him. What Merz needs is trust beyond the votes cast for his party, and beyond this election.
The problem is, there is virtually no way for us to imagine Friedrich Merz in this new role. But it’s not even necessarily because we don’t know or trust him. It’s because we know so little about the demands of the office at this time, because so little is known about the place of our country in this new world. The whole thing is a black box.
Trusting Merz
When it comes to the question of trusting Merz, profiling him (the irritable one! The offended one! The arrogant one!) is of no help. Chancellors do not have to be likable — and if they become so, it usually takes years.
He represents a fundamental break from his two predecessors.
What is striking, however, is that one of his key traits has received so little attention: Germany is finally about to have a chancellor who is willing to take risks.
He has already done so, rather recklessly, by voting alongside the far-right AfD to reform migration policy. He also did so by advocating for the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, not knowing if and when he might have to implement this decision himself, once elected chancellor.
No place to hide
This new risk-taking chancellor will stand before a society that has spent the past 20 years minimizing political risks. The reason why so many still seem to have such an epidermic reaction may be because deep down, they sense he represents a fundamental break from his two predecessors.
The country has become risk-averse
Chancellors Angela Merkel and Olaf Scholz governed by cushioning Germans from the world’s crises. The country has therefore become risk-averse and those who act too decisively are swiftly punished.
But our times do not allow for a bureaucratic, insulated Germany. Hiding away is no longer an option. A new chancellor must work with other European members to restructure a bloc that’s capable of protecting itself. A new chancellor must rearm the German military, however difficult it may be to secure funding. A new chancellor may have to involve China and India in a power play against Putin and Trump.
That, and much more. There is no path forward without taking risks. And Merz himself comes with plenty of risks of his own:
Five risks for the risk-taker
Risk No. 1: Friedrich Merz lacks self-control
There is some truth to this concern. Merz’s political style includes making blunt statements, sometimes reinforcing stereotypes — as seen when he spoke of “welfare tourism” among Ukrainian refugees. He believes strongly in his rhetorical skills, aiming to draw strength from provocative statements and differentiate himself from his two overly composed and cautious predecessors. Clear discourse can be seen as valuable, in an unclear world. Yet because chancellors’ words carry significant weight, Merz must restrain himself from stoking resentments.
Risk No. 2: Friedrich Merz is too far to the right
During the campaign, the CDU/CSU leader railed against “green and left-wing radicals.” Under Merkel, who had many supporters left of center, German politics became a battle between the center and the fringes, particularly the right-wing fringe. Under Merz, these conflicts could shift back to the center. This would actually benefit the left, allowing them to define themselves in opposition to him. The real risk lies with the AfD: if mainstream conflicts draw attention, the far-right party may fade into the background.
Risk No. 3: Friedrich Merz is a representative of industry and finance
It is hard to imagine that this business-friendly conservative truly understands the struggles of those who cannot solve their problems with money or lawyers. However, compared to Elon Musk’s extreme libertarianism, even Germany’s neoliberal policies seem moderate. The risk here is manageable.
Risk No. 4: Friedrich Merz has no government experience
Unlike his predecessors, he has never held a government office. But experience alone does not guarantee success — take Olaf Scholz, for example, who had extensive experience but struggled throughout as chancellor.
Risk No. 5: Friedrich Merz has cooperated with the AfD
This is true, and it was likely a mix of impulse and strategy. He justified his controversial parliamentary maneuver as a response to the tragic knife attack in Aschaffenburg. But his strategy of signaling decisiveness did not work well for either the CDU or AfD in the election. After the backlash, Merz vowed never to rely on the AfD for a governing majority. It would be unwise to trust him indefinitely on this issue, but he knows that breaking this promise would come at an enormous political cost.
Isolation and fear won’t work
Trust requires taking a leap of faith. Mistrust leads to self-protection, isolation, and stagnation, while trust fosters cooperation.
He has the opportunity to show that the greatest risk today is avoiding risk.
At the very least, we should remain open to the idea — on this day, as we wake up to the news that Friedrich Merz will be chancellor.
He has the opportunity to show that the greatest risk today is avoiding risk. And we must say: it’s about time.
