-Analysis-
PARIS – This is U.S. President Donald Trump’s war. Over the past two weeks, the United States has continued to bomb Yemen — more than 50 attacks. The first strike on Yemeni Houthi rebel positions made headlines, especially after reports surfaced that attack plans were shared over an unsecured messaging platform.
But since then, the relentless bombings have largely gone unnoticed — despite the mounting casualties, both civilian and military.
They’re hardly a secret. Trump himself has boasted about them on social media, declaring that: “The Iran-backed Houthi Terrorists have been decimated by the relentless strikes over the past two weeks… We hit them every day and night — Harder and harder. Our attacks will continue until they are no longer a threat.”
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The final sentence of the his post is the most menacing: “We have only just begun, and the real pain is yet to come, for both the Houthis and their sponsors in Iran.” Because Trump’s real target isn’t just the Houthis — it’s the Iranian regime and its nuclear program.
The question remains: Is the U.S. president willing to go to war with Iran to stop it from getting the atomic bomb?
Iran’s nuclear threat
Why now? There are at least two reasons. The first, of course, is that Iran’s nuclear program appears to be nearing completion. The country is reportedly approaching what experts call the “nuclear threshold” — the point at which it could produce an atomic weapon, a development that would drastically shift the strategic balance in the region.
Trump sent a letter to Iranian leaders offering to negotiate over the nuclear issue. Tehran rejected direct talks and responded to his threats by stating that if the U.S. attacked, it would have no choice but to develop its own atomic bomb.
The second reason is that the region is once again on the brink of turmoil. In addition to U.S. airstrikes in Yemen, Israel has resumed a merciless war in Gaza, coupled with a humanitarian blockade that could have devastating consequences. Meanwhile, the Israeli military is carrying out near-daily strikes in Lebanon, despite the ceasefire that took effect in November.
Escalation or diplomacy
The connection between these different “fronts” lies in the alignment of Israeli and American strategies. Israel operates under the cover of U.S. support for its all-out war in Gaza, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly refers to Trump’s plan to depopulate Palestinian territory.
The two countries share the same hostility toward Iran’s clerical regime. Until Trump’s arrival, the Biden administration had prevented Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, fearing a regional escalation.
Trump will face a simple choice: escalate or lose face.
Trump appears to have less restraint than his predecessor: In any case, he’s ramping up what he calls “maximum pressure” on Iran to try to force its hand on the nuclear issue. But what will he do if, as is likely, Tehran refuses to back down? He will face a simple choice: escalate or lose face.
Trump, the president who talked about how much he disliked war, didn’t even wait two months before starting one in Yemen. He now faces the decision of whether to take the risk of igniting another conflict, and potentially on a much larger scale.
