Assad Is Gone — Beware Of What Comes Next In Syria

Updated Dec. 8, 2024 at 11:30 a.m.*

-Analysis-

CAIRO — Having watched developments in Syria over the past 10 days, which has led to the dramatic toppling of the regime of Bashar Assad, I don’t understand why many of my fellow Egyptians were always asking which side to support.

It was either the regime of a war criminal who has been killing his people with explosives and chemical weapons for more than 13 years; or the Turkish-backed armed extremist and terrorist groups that carried out their surprise attack and took control of Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city.

This is not a soccer game where we support one team or another. It is an extended tragedy; the victims are the Syrian people. They suffered at the hands of Assad, who deserves to be tried as a war criminal, and of the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly al-Qaeda, who are no less criminal than the regime. The HTS fighters have extremist beliefs that threaten Syria’s existing sectarian and ethnic diversity, and thus push the stricken country into a sectarian civil war worse than what Lebanon and Iraq experienced in the past.

The question should not be which side to support, but rather what are the alternatives that would allow Syrians to break this vicious cycle of bitter choices.

Libya and Iraq comparisons

The attractive solution is, of course, that Syrians go to the ballot boxes, where they agree on a constitution and choose their rulers. But that option is difficult amid accumulating hatred and desire for revenge.

This difficulty is evident in Libya, which has its own civil war — although it is less bloody than Syria’s, and its dimensions are more tribal than sectarian. After the civil war that divided Libya into east, west and south, all attempts to hold elections or reach an agreement on a joint constitution failed. Over time, each Libyan leader became something like an independent regional president, refusing to give up his privileges and the external support that flowed from multiple parties, both Arab and Western.

Iraq saw similar difficulties after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. The elections did not serve to restore the county’s unity, but rather to divide it practically into areas of Shiite influence, which are the largest, and another Sunni in the center, while the Kurds in the north enjoy self-rule, based on the recipe of the American occupier.

Calling for free elections in Syria now is not a practical solution.

Although the security situation has somewhat improved in Iraq in recent years, the risk of a civil war has not disappeared — particularly in light of Iranian involvement in Iraqi internal affairs and the continued emergence of the sectarian factor.

So calling for free elections in Syria now is not a practical solution. Even less so in light of the entrenchment of the regime’s sectarian dimension and its reliance on Iran and Shiite militias that poured into Syria from Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan to ensure its continued survival. That’s in addition to the Russian support, which was in return for Russian permanent naval bases in Syria.

Syria may need a years-long transitional period before elections could be held to bring a new leader to the county. Such a transition should provide guarantees to the various Syrian sects that they will not be subject to genocide, as feared by many of members of the Alawite sect, the ethnoreligious minority from which the Assad family originates.

If they are really interested in finding a solution to the ongoing tragedy, neutral Arab forces may need to oversee the transitional period.

​Prices to pay

Yet the complexity of the situation in Syria and the crimes of the Assad regime and extremist opposition groups, which have been linked to Turkey and wealthy Gulf states, does not negate the fact that the recent attack carried out by fighters of al-Qaeda and allied groups does not necessarily come in the context of the civil war.

The attack is more related to the broader regional confrontation between Iran on the one hand, and Israel and the United States on the other.

The timing of the attack was not a coincidence or a desire to take revenge for airstrikes launched by the regime during the past weeks as they claim. The attack started only hours after the announcement of a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel, and after direct and explicit threats by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Assad.

For decades, Israel has been known to violate Syria’s sovereignty.

“Assad must understand that he is playing with fire,” Netanyahu warned in a video statement, referring to Assad’s cooperation with Iran and expected efforts to rearm Hezbollah.

Syrian sovereignty 

On the same day, a senior Israeli military official said the IDF would strike weapons shipments, and that Assad’s regime would pay for aiding Hezbollah, according to Israeli online newspaper The Times of Israel. “If Syria helps Hezbollah to rebuild, they will pay direct prices. Not only the convoys will be attacked, but there will be prices to pay in Syria as well,” the official said.

For decades, Israel has been known to violate Syria’s sovereignty. It launched dozens of attacks deep inside the capital Damascus, targeting Syria’s limited military capabilities as well as Iranian militias supporting Assad and the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

Hours before the announcement of the ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel launched a large-scale attack along the Lebanese-Syrian border, especially the roads used to transport weapons from Syria to Lebanon. That will enable Israel to impose greater control over any weapons that Iran may want to deliver to Hezbollah through Syria.

Message delivered

The rules of the game have changed; Israel, backed by the United States, will not allow the situation to return to what it was before the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.

Israel may not be able to engage in a direct military confrontation with Iran. Such a confrontation would be difficult due to the distance. And Washington has warned that it does not want to ignite the oil-rich Gulf region. Yet the Israeli enemy will consider that it a great accomplishment if it is able to weaken Iran’s “proxies,” starting with Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, the Shiite militias in Iraq, and ending with the Assad regime in Syria.

With the toppling of Assad, there is the expected joy over the downfall of murderous, criminal regime that is responsible for decades of bloodshed in Syria. Still, don’t expect the extremist and terrorist groups supported by Turkey and Israel to be able to peacefully end the protracted war, or restore the unity of Syrian territory.

*Originally published Dec. 6, 2024, this article was updated Dec. 8, 2024 with news of Assad regime’s fall.