PARIS — It has become something of a classic pattern: every election in Europe is presented as decisive in the battle between democracy and illiberalism — with implications for Ukraine’s future and even the future of Europe itself.
That was the case in Romania’s election two weeks ago, won by a liberal candidate, and it is the case again this Sunday with Poland’s presidential runoff.
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It may be a familiar scenario, but it’s also largely true. It bears repeating: Poland is now a key player in Europe. It’s the largest country in Central Europe, on the EU’s eastern flank, bordering Ukraine and acting as its lifeline to the West. Warsaw belongs to the inner circle of European leadership alongside Paris, London, and Berlin in the “Coalition of the Willing” supporting Ukraine and shaping strategy toward both Putin and Trump. Poland is also now the biggest defense spender relative to GDP in Europe, approaching 5%. So yes, this election carries real consequences.
This is especially true given how starkly opposed the two candidates are: the liberal mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, versus Karol Nawrocki, the national-conservative candidate.
The two finalists don’t differ on Russia: both major Polish parties, aligned with public opinion, are united in their hostility toward Vladimir Putin — a position shaped by history. Even though the right is more hesitant when it comes to Ukraine, the real contrasts lie in social issues, such as women’s rights and LGBTQ+ rights.
The ultranationalist Law and Justice party (PiS) enjoys open support from the Trump administration, which now backs populist and far-right parties across Europe. PiS is clearly Eurosceptic and clashed with Brussels when it controlled all levers of power from 2015 to 2023.
But the result will undeniably have decisive geopolitical repercussions.
On the other side, the liberal candidate is backed by allies of Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Paris, Berlin, and Brussels. They fear a nationalist victory could plunge Poland into a paralyzing “cohabitation” between a president and a prime minister at odds — just when Europe needs maximum unity to navigate a historically pivotal moment.
The first-round results are ambiguous: although Trzaskowski came out on top, the combined vote share of nationalist and far-right candidates exceeds 50%. For the mayor of Warsaw to win, first-round abstentionists will need to turn out in force — just as they did in Romania two weeks ago, where Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan made a dramatic comeback between the two rounds. Romania’s president-elect even came to Warsaw last weekend to support his Polish counterpart at a massive rally of 140,000 people, proclaiming their shared struggle.
Poland is also now the biggest defense spender relative to GDP in Europe.
It’s a battle of information and image, with social media and disinformation acting as stealthy players in a deeply polarized democracy — a clash between major cities oriented toward Europe, and more conservative rural areas.
Paradoxically, while all of Europe views this election through a geopolitical lens, the real contest in Poland is one of values — as is often the case in former communist countries. But the result will undeniably have decisive geopolitical repercussions.
